Andrew A. Michta Profile picture
May 16 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🧵I wrote recently that how #Europe rolls on #China going forward will define transatlantic relations. It’s not the first time I raised this issue. And I’m concerned that Europe’s leaders have not yet fully understood China’s strategy, and the stakes. 1/5 politico.eu/article/europe…
European leaders seem not to have fully recognized that Beijing is engaged in a massive geostrategic project to reconfigure Eurasia, build a blue ocean-going navy, and establish bases at critical pressure points in Africa, Europe, and, presumably, the High North. 2/5
As its access to the US R&D base becomes restricted, Beijing intends to harvest technology across the Continent. The current EU debate about “de-risking” has actually made many in Europe less attuned to the danger posed by continue Chinese commercial expansion. 3/5
If the transatlantic bond weakens, Europe could be disaggregated and, as #Russia progressively becomes Beijing’s vassal, subjected to Chinese political ans military domination down the line. To have a non-Western power—China—become dominant in Europe would be a game-changer. 4/5
If Europe continues to waffle on the nature of the existential threat posed by Beijing’s Eurasian strategy and allows France to chart its course on security and defense (Macron’s “strategic autonomy”), it may end up with marginal EU capabilities, and a hollowed-out NATO. 5/End

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More from @andrewmichta

May 2
🧵As I follow editorials on how to deal with #Russia going forward, I’m getting impatient that we again seem to be having a conversation with ourselves about ourselves, instead of taking a level-headed measure of the adversary. I hear all sorts excuses, but not much analysis. 1/6
Ever since “Sovietology” imploded at the end of the Cold War, Western Expertise on #Russia pretty much went south, with American PoliSci destroying Area Studies as a pathway to tenure, and producing instead quantitative model builders, quasi-scientists and “institutionalists.”2/6
Today it happens quite often that US analysis who opine on #Russia don’t speak the language, don’t follow RUS media sources and have only a rudimentary knowledge of RUS history and society. That’s one reason why so much of current analysis defaults to cliches about #Russia. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 28
🧵Since my last post about how democracies need to move urgently to wartime production of weapons and munitions has generated a lot of comments and questions, let me elaborate as to why I believe this should be our top priority, and why every citizen should speak up on this… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The last 30yrs have seen our defense industry across Europe and in the US contract dramatically. The message from governments to defense contractors has been unequivocal: the Cold War is over. So no more large procurement orders; we need “just-in-time” efficiencies. 2/7
Defense contractors are not in the charity business—no contracts, no output. In the US in the early 1990s we still had 51 major defense contractors bidding for gov’t business; today we have 5. The situation in Europe is arguably worse, especially when it comes to capacity. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Apr 27
🧵It is increasingly clear that #China is positioning itself to benefit from the war in #Ukraine. Putin’s folly has increased #Russia’s dependence on China for energy exports, accelerating Moscow’s vassalization to Beijing. It’s increasingly clear China is in the lead. 1/5
Beijing has also been able to exploit differences between Washington, Paris and Berlin when it comes to their #China policy, with a flurry of senior European leaders visits to China underscoring Beijing’s growing influence. China is now a rising great power in Europe. 2/5
Through its Belt and Road initiative China has sought to flip the maritime-to-land domain relationship in its favor, building a land-based supply chain network that—if successfully completed & defended—would enable China to compete from a position of advantage vice the US. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Apr 25
🧵We are about to roll into May—so we are now within the time window of favorable weather conditions for the much expected Ukrainian offensive. Analysts continue to argue about the possible azimuth of movement in #Ukraine, plans/tactics, readiness , etc. I won’t rehash it. 1/5
I will point to one important factor in this war that pundits have consistently underestimated, i.e., the resilience of the Ukrainian nation and the morale and determination of its armed forces. The outcome of the UKR spring offensive will be a sum-total of several variables. 2/5
But I would argue that the RUS side will never match the morale of Ukrainian soldiers who are in an existential fight for their sovereignty, freedom and the very survival of their people. One can’t quantify this factor, but in the coming battle it may in fact prove decisive .3/5
Read 5 tweets
Apr 23
🧵As I look at how the war in #Ukraine has unfolded, I’m increasingly convinced that this year will be critical to the final outcome. The drivers are both weapons, munitions and financial support for UKR, and as importantly also how the war factors into great power conflict. 1/6
First, the Sino-Russian axis is growing stronger, with PRC articulating positions ever-closer to Moscow’s (vide: statements by PRC ambo to FR that post-Soviet successor states lack int’l legitimacy). Second, voices in the US that weapons for UKR and Taiwan are a zero sum game.2/6
Vocal claims in some in US policy circles that we can’t afford to continue sending weapons to #Ukraine signal that Washington is not yet ready to move to wartime production, and that the defense budget will be in contention going forward. This means aid to UKR may decline. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 21
🧵I grow weary of the “China first ”school in US policy community, which argues that since our military isn’t big enough to cover both #Europe & #Asia, we need to stop aiding #Ukraine, leave EUR to its own devices & husband our resources to focus on the pacing threat in Asia.1/6
I’m sorry but this makes no sense. The “China first” school is retreading the tired “pivot” rhetoric from the last decade. You don’t try to solve the problem by running away from it. If our military is too small to secure our strategic interests, we need to build it up. 2/6
The Atlantic and the Pacific are not and either/or proposition; they are together/with. They are one problem set. China and Russia understand it—they have sought to create a simultaneous two-frontier crisis for us: one in Eastern Europe, the other in the Indo-Pacific. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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