Thread by @NonaMikhelidze

My commentary “Unpacking the Vatican’s Diplomatic Failure in Reaching a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War” iai.it/en/pubblicazio… /1 #Pope #UkraineRussianWar #Zelensky @IAIonline

Key takeaways: The Vatican’s diplomatic attempts at achieving an immediate ceasefire in the Russian war against Ukraine have failed from the very outset. At the end of April, the Pope revealed that secret diplomacy was underway to mediate between 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇦./2

However, the reactions from both Moscow and Kyiv have been denial and irritation. Less than two weeks later, President #Zelensky arrived in Italy as part of his European tour, with three well-defined objectives in mind: to strengthen the military alliance with Western partners,/3

asking for the provision of new weapons; to secure their support in initiating negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union; and to obtain their backing for the #NATO summit in Vilnius, where Kyiv awaits concrete steps to bring Ukraine closer to the transatlantic /4

alliance. It is within this context that the meeting with Pope Francis took place, serving as a purely symbolic event. It provided an opportunity to address all lingering doubts and to conclusively put an end to any insinuations or speculations surrounding the alleged Vatican /5

diplomacy aimed at achieving an immediate ceasefire in the war. After meeting the Pope, Zelensky declared:“The war is on Ukrainian soil, it is Ukrainian soldiers and civilians who are dying,so any peace proposal must originate from Kyiv,not from the Vatican, China,or elsewhere.”6

The following day, Zelensky’s advisor Podolyak vented all the frustration accumulated by Ukraine over the past 15 months of war towards the Vatican and its narrative about the war. He tweeted directly in Italian accusing the Vatican in “mediating in favour of the aggressor” /7

The reasons for the failure of the Vatican’s diplomacy even before it began are manifold. 1. for Kyiv, the Pope is not impartial, he is rather mediating “in favour of the aggressor”. /8

2. Ukraine does not see the Vatican as a political actor or institution. For them, “the Vatican is primarily about morality” (as @Podolyak_M put it) therefore it is seen as a religious institution with limited influence in Ukraine./9

3. The aversion to the Pope’s mediation is also influenced by his interpretation of the war, particularly his famous remark about “NATO barking at Russia’s gate” that suggests that the conflict is a proxy war orchestrated by the United States and provoked by the West. /10

This narrative raises two concerns for the Ukrainians. Firstly, it portrays the Pope as being anti-Western, opposing NATO and the United States for ideological reasons, thereby aligning him with the Kremlin. In contrast, for Kyiv, NATO, the US and the entire Western alliance /11

are strategic partners crucial for their security and survival as nation state. Second, the narrative of a “proxy war” is seen as inherently colonialist, as it denies agency to the Ukrainian people, undermining their ability to be active participants in the conflict and /12

possible negotiations. Instead, it presents Ukraine, and its population of over 40 million, as a mere pawn in the hands of the so-called “great powers”. /13

4. Another reason for the lack of success of Vatican diplomacy is related to its request for an immediate ceasefire. The Vatican's insistence on ceasefires overlooks Zelensky’s accountability to public opinion and Ukrainians’ confidence in the possibility of winning the war. /14

In Ukraine, today’s war is perceived as an anti-colonial struggle for physical survival against the Russian invader, for freedom and for Europe. /15

It is precisely due to this military, political and social context that the Vatican’s diplomacy has failed and is unlikely to succeed in the future, except in matters pertaining to humanitarian issues related to the war. /End