EHSANI22 Profile picture
May 20 3 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Why did #Assad survive against all odds?

Losing was never an option

Alternative wasn’t going to involve retiring to a farm or taking up painting

Your own neck was first

Your entire sect were to follow quickly after

Of course you were going to call Iran/Russia or the Devil Image
But it wasn’t just Assad that made this calculus

Scores of different groups were going to be accused of being “regime supporters”

Their own necks were going to be next

The judge was going to be anyone who points fingers at you for being Shabih شبيح

@KevorkAlmassian
Western capitals & #Syria experts in the meantime were seeing the crisis from the prism of

Goodbye to dictatorship and hello to freedom and democracy

This rather simple but elegant narrative of the crisis was totally oblivious to the more real visceral & bloody nature of it

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More from @EHSANI221

May 8
How #Syria ‘s was could have turned out differently

It was June 6, 2011 when 120 army & security personnel were killed at Jisr al-Shoughour

Had Washington & Arab capitals dealt with this incident differently, countless lives would have been saved & so much misery avoided ==> Image
This is how @nytimes reported on the incident

Right off, the article mocked Govt ‘s characterization of those who killed the soldiers as armed thugs & it went on to highlight how locals disputed the Govt ‘s story

Most media outlets did the same
nytimes.com/2011/06/07/wor…
Back in Washington, surveillance of Opp. communication devices made it clear it was indeed hit on Army & security personnel

It was here that Arab & Western capitals could / should have taken a stand that taking up arms against a sitting Govt (yes, a HATED one) was unacceptable
Read 9 tweets
May 4
#Syria ‘s Assad did roll out the red carpet for #Iran ‘s president

Assad wanted to dismiss any notion that his rapprochement with the Arab world would come at the expense of Tehran

But why is this alliance so enduring & why does Assad cling to it at seemingly high costs?

=> ImageImage
2-When you pick allies, you want them to be there when you absolutely need them and for them to demand little in return

This is precisely what Tehran is to Damascus

A consistent & dependable ally who needs you just as much as you need them

Ditch them for who? And what?
3-Assad loves to keep all his options open. Never be hostage to one single party

His nirvana ?

Be friends with Tehran, Moscow, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Ankara and even Washington

But he knows he can’t

So he has to pick his most trusted & enduring ones

You guessed who
Read 13 tweets
Feb 21
More on @BDL_Lebanon new balance sheet look post using LBP 15,000

For the first time, we can tell what line items are held in US$ (anything that went up by nearly 9.95 times) and which are in LBP

We can tell, sort of

Salameh is as tricky as ever but lots of juicy stuff here
1-Easy part is the bottom liabilities side

89% of what @BDL_Lebanon owes is to the banks (financial sector deposits)

Digging into that line item, it now appears that 84% of all deposits lent by the banks to BDL are denominated in US$

That number now is $76 billion
2-moving to the trickier Assets side

We see that gold and foreign assets are in US$ (both went up by nearly 10 times)

Loans to public sector received lots of attention and rightly so

The footnote at the bottom explaining this item is v both hard to decipher but very important
Read 11 tweets
Feb 11
US sanctions against #Syria were designed to punish Assad

Members of the opposition and their allies in Washington are extremely passionate about ensuring these sanction stay in place

Totally forgotten are the millions of innocent people who live in Govt-controlled areas

===>
2-US sanctions designed to hurt Assad are hurting millions of people wayyyyy more than they are hurting their intended target
3-While one understands the need to “do something” to hurt Assad and the “regime”, the truth is that the sanctions have created a massive income and wealth wedge between the connected war lords and the poor general populace living inside Govt-controlled areas
Read 4 tweets
Feb 10
Follow up to my original Thread and to help clarify more details on #Syria sanctions and the just announced GL 23

2-It is true that many financial intermediaries have both not been made aware of GL 23 and/or are reluctant to engage in doing any business in #Syria for fear of being subjected to OFAC restrictions and the Caesar Act

@USTreasury and OFAC will soon be addressing this

==>
3- Over the coming days @USTreasury will be developing a detailed and clear answers about how to send disaster relief to #Syria

In the meantime, it is important to note that there is nothing gimmicky about this courageous and compassionate by the @POTUS Administration
Read 7 tweets
Feb 10
Significant new positive initiatives from Washington that demonstrate how the Administration is increasing aid to Syrians in need, no matter where they live, The Treasury has just issued GL 23 to to support earthquake relief efforts in #Syria ====>

home.treasury.gov/system/files/1…
2- ( GL) 23 is a blanket General License to authorize earthquake relief efforts, and it was issued to make very clear that U.S. sanctions in #Syria will not stand in the way of life-saving efforts for the Syrian people.

====>
3- While U.S. sanctions programs already contained exemptions for humanitarian efforts, this just announced General License helps to ensure that those who are providing assistance can focus on saving lives and rebuilding in #Syria
Read 5 tweets

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