Read on Twitter
🧵 #Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from #Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1660078398759133185
2/ #Wagner forces are unlikely to establish adequate defenses or consolidate recent gains in #Bakhmut sufficient to forestall Ukrainian counterattacks by May 25 even if #Prigozhin’s announcement of Wagner’s withdrawal is true.
3/ Ukrainian forces are still engaging Russian forces in and near #Bakhmut, and Ukrainian artillery can still target Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.
4/ Withdrawal in contact with the enemy is an exceedingly difficult task that the #WagnerGroup’s forces are unlikely to perform well within #Prigozhin’s five-day time frame.
5/ Conducting a relief-in-place while in contact is also an extremely challenging maneuver that Russian forces would likely struggle to conduct even if the Russian Ministry of Defense agrees to undertake it.
6/ #Wagner units have shown poor coordination with Russian conventional forces, other irregular formations subordinated to the Russian MoD, and the Russian military command—factors that would hinder a smooth relief-in-place operation.
7/ The Russian military command is unlikely to generate sufficient forces to relieve #Wagner in #Bakhmut and hold its flanks within the window #Prigozhin has announced without redeploying Russian forces from other areas. isw.pub/UkrWar052023
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
