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May 21 7 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🧵 #Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from #Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
2/ #Wagner forces are unlikely to establish adequate defenses or consolidate recent gains in #Bakhmut sufficient to forestall Ukrainian counterattacks by May 25 even if #Prigozhin’s announcement of Wagner’s withdrawal is true.
3/ Ukrainian forces are still engaging Russian forces in and near #Bakhmut, and Ukrainian artillery can still target Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.
4/ Withdrawal in contact with the enemy is an exceedingly difficult task that the #WagnerGroup’s forces are unlikely to perform well within #Prigozhin’s five-day time frame.
5/ Conducting a relief-in-place while in contact is also an extremely challenging maneuver that Russian forces would likely struggle to conduct even if the Russian Ministry of Defense agrees to undertake it.
6/ #Wagner units have shown poor coordination with Russian conventional forces, other irregular formations subordinated to the Russian MoD, and the Russian military command—factors that would hinder a smooth relief-in-place operation.
7/ The Russian military command is unlikely to generate sufficient forces to relieve #Wagner in #Bakhmut and hold its flanks within the window #Prigozhin has announced without redeploying Russian forces from other areas. isw.pub/UkrWar052023

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More from @TheStudyofWar

May 22
🧵ISW previously forecasted that #WagnerGroup's offensive operations in #Bakhmut would likely culminate after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that #Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut in its current depleted state. (1/9) isw.pub/UkrWar052123
2/ ISW assessed that #Wagner forces were nearing culmination when they decided to fight through #Bakhmut City.
3/ #Wagner forces were enabled to continue offensive operations past that culmination point as Russian regular forces took responsibility for #Bakhmut’s flanks, allowing Wagner to concentrate on the urban fight.
Read 9 tweets
May 22
#Ukrainian military sources reported that #Russian forces lost part of the dominant heights around #Bakhmut and noted that sustained Ukrainian advances could lead to a tactical encirclement of #Wagner forces in Bakhmut. (1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar052123 Image
2/ The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade stated on May 20 that the brigade’s counterattacks have expanded the Ukrainian salient in the #Bakhmut area to 1,750 meters wide by 700 meters deep in an unspecified area.
3/ Geolocated footage shows the brigade striking unspecified Russian forces south of Klishchiivka (7km SW of #Bakhmut), and engaging with the Russian 200th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps (Northern Fleet) northeast of Bohdanivka (5km NW of Bakhmut).
Read 6 tweets
May 22
#Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces control an “insignificant” part of southwestern #Bakhmut City around the T0504 highway — a tacit acknowledgment that #Russian forces have secured the rest of western and northwestern Bakhmut if not all of it. Image
2/ These officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in #Bakhmut except those adjacent to the two highways into the city. isw.pub/UkrWar052123
3/ Geolocated footage published on May 21 showed #WagnerGroup forces raising #Russian and #Wagner flags over a residential building in westernmost #Bakhmut.
Read 6 tweets
May 21
Russian conventional forces likely will still need to transfer additional forces to the Bakhmut direction even if #Wagner mercenaries remain in #Bakhmut. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
2/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces continue to transfer airborne, motorized rifle, and special forces elements to reinforce the #Bakhmut flanks even as Wagner forces remain in Bakhmut City.
3/ The UK MoD also reported that the Russian military command likely redeployed several battalions to reinforce Bakhmut despite only having a few uncommitted combat units and that this redeployment suggests a substantial commitment to the Bakhmut effort by the Russian leadership.
Read 4 tweets
May 21
Ukrainian forces are continuing to pressure #Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that fighting is ongoing on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks in the directions of Ivanivske, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. (1/5) isw.pub/UkrWar052023 Image
2/ Ukrainian forces reported on May 19 that they have recaptured approximately four square kilometers of additional territory near #Bakhmut, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue conducting localized attacks near Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).
3/ #Prigozhin’s claimed capture of the remaining blocks in #Bakhmut is not strategically significant as it will not allow exhausted Wagner or conventional Russian forces to establish a meaningful springboard for further offensive operations.
Read 5 tweets
May 21
#Prigozhin claimed that #WagnerGroup forces completely captured #Bakhmut City on May 20, seizing the last multi-story apartment building in SW Bakhmut near the MiG-17 monument. ISW hasn't observed geolocated footage confirming Prigozhin’s claims as of today's publication. (1/6) Image
2/ #Prigozhin announced that #Wagner forces will establish defensive positions before transferring responsibility for the city to Russian conventional forces on May 25. isw.pub/UkrWar052023
3/ #Prigozhin effectively stated that #Wagner forces will conduct an operational pause by resting and restoring combat power at field training camps in unspecified areas, presumably far from the frontline.
Read 6 tweets

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