Thread by @wentisung

Imprecise headline IMO.

Australian FM @SenatorWong is not saying PM Albanese's China visit is #preconditioned on China making progress on lifting trade sanctions & detained Australians. Rather, China doing so would be very #conducive to such a visit. /1

abc.net.au/news/2023-05-2…

@SenatorWong In Penny Wong's own carefully chosen words: "I would say that we would want to see continued progress and the most positive circumstances for any visit by the Prime Minister, and I think #China would understand that." /2

This is Australia learning from China's playbook but doing it with more grace.

China's typical rhetorical playbook:
1. When in a foul mood: Other countries need to repent and address China's grievances (e.g. 14 grievances) before China would restore senior bilateral talks etc./3

2. When in a ok mood: Other countries should make progress on things China cares/is annoyed about in order to "create conducive atmosphere for dialogue".

But without specifying what rewards other countries, e.g. AUS, would get if they accede to China's wish. /4

'coz in negotiations once China spell it out, it's more costly for it to backtrack later without looking like it's being a bad faith negotiator or 'rocking the boat'. In game theory we call this installing a 'commitment device' -- tying your own hands to show you're serious. /5

Penny Wong here is taking the relatively higher-road here. Let's call it option 3: She seems to be doing option 2, excepts that she is more forthcoming in spelling out the deliverable (Albanese visiting China). /6

Wong's precise language is what ALP does to balance signaling good faith to Beijing with controlling risk of getting seen as kowtowing domestically.

China's MFA has enough smart people to get her message. Let's hope they have the audacity to respond positively, too. /7

China's further lifting of trade sanctions against AUS, and at minimum greater transparency re situations of Aussies detained in China (e.g. Cheng Lei & Yang Hengjun) will make life easier for anyone who like to see AUS-CHI relations improve, which is in Beijing's own interest./8