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🧵I’m in #Warsaw for @Defence24Day—an important platform for security and defense professionals, organized by @Defence24pl. Each time I visit the Eastern flank (Finland, the Baltics, Poland, etc.) it’s clear that gov’ts here recognize the urgency of the threat from Russia. 1/7
As I travel West, away from @NATO’s frontier, security optics changes. In Berlin the conversation tends to refocus on economic & humanitarian questions, and defaults to the normative aspect of RUS invasion, i.e., violating the principle that borders can’t be changed by force.2/7
In Paris geopolitics reasserts itself, but with a Southern azimuth, pointing to Med and Africa. As in Berlin, economic, humanitarians and normative issues provide the context for the conversation, with a clear undertone that we need to get to a negotiated solution in #Ukraine.3/7
I use these examples to suggest that while @NATO is politically unified on #Ukraine, there are different levels of appetite for risk-taking in Europe that correlate with geography and history. Countries along the frontier know this war is an existential question for them. 4/7
Nations live in neighborhoods, and security perceptions depend on who your neighbor happens to be. During the Cold War @NATO allies shared similar threat perceptions because a war with the Warsaw Pact would have devastated us all, regardless of geography. The threat was clear.5/7
Today’s #Russia, bereft of its East European empire is seen outside the flank as a significantly smaller threat, and though its nuclear weapons are a constant concern (one that Putin has leveraged well), the threat is not felt with the same level of intensity across Europe. 6/7
Hence, the leaders in the US and Europe need to communicate to their publics the urgency of the threat Russia poses to our security, and that a Russian victory in #Ukraine would undermine security worldwide. If we fail in Ukraine, we risk a wider war. And China is watching.7/End
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