Thread by @_ppmv

We now relive the “Roaring Twenties,” but with a SARS-virus that, unlike the 1918 pandemic influenza, establishes chronic infection and will take society down if left to evolve unmitigated. Party time 😈👇

https://twitter.com/laurieallee/status/1665226253069066241

@JessicaLexicus crashed the party before it was even endemic 😂👇

https://twitter.com/adybee9/status/1602565481570996224

We warn the “back to normal” party goers against significant ‘policy resistance’; the expected pushback to any kind of policy change.

https://twitter.com/jessicalexicus/status/1665574609356222464

Here the challenge to us partygoers. We need sentinel intelligence (@JessicaLexicus), people able to synthesize a view of the external world and self from available data, by its nature incomplete or contradictory. Read Sterman 2011. dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/…

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1541344650165981184

@JessicaLexicus If you read this, you are likely moderate or high-sensitivity (tulip or orchid), unlikely low (dandelion). Use your gift. Think about what's ahead. I know you'll be doing that anyway; just see this as confirmation that we all do. 🙏
jessicawildfire.substack.com/p/youre-not-a-…
jessicawildfire.substack.com/p/youre-not-a-…

@JessicaLexicus @JessicaLexicus writes about our systems challenges. Read, subscribe & maybe gift her a coffee, because none of us live from love and clean air alone. I add data: Germany sequenced 0% of the few SARS-CoV-2 samples they cared to collect in week 19. @ECDC_EU …id19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/variants_of_co…

@JessicaLexicus @ECDC_EU China stopped publishing, likely even collecting, high-quality epidemiological data since SARS-CoV-2 was downrated as a Class B infectious disease after its first major wave in late 2022 that followed the end of #ZeroCovid policy.
chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/sz…
weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi…

@JessicaLexicus @ECDC_EU India and most others did the same. Only a few states like Thailand and Ecuador didn't get the memo that you are supposed to stop collecting epidemiologically relevant data to keep patients from claiming insurance benefits, saving them and states billions. ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…

@JessicaLexicus @ECDC_EU Thailand gets terrible air pollution from slash-and-burn agriculture (mal)practices. You can simply mask with N95 and improve environmental and social outcomes through policy and education.

No big deal if you don't politicize this. earth.nullschool.net/#current/parti…

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1647039598898589696

@JessicaLexicus @ECDC_EU Some also noted early on in the pandemic that COVID-19 incidence was low in parts of Southeast that practice nasal lavage/rinse. If you told Germans, even MDs or pharmacists, they just laughed at you.

SARS-CoV-2 is selecting for societies that learn fast.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1569802673406230528

@JessicaLexicus @ECDC_EU What did I get wrong in the early 2020 analysis? I thought the timelines and dynamics of SARS and climate were inverse: feedbacks measured in days to months in SARS-CoV infection vs. years to decades in climate.

Sarbecovirus chronic infection fixes that. asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-…

@JessicaLexicus @ECDC_EU We can go on forever about climate and COVID dynamics, that's why we are so popular at parties. Long story short, here both quality parenting advice and the current pandemic policy response of ALL the world's governments.

More of us need to be this woman:

https://twitter.com/TheFigen_/status/1665315964324401152

@JessicaLexicus @ECDC_EU Note the hint about human monkeypox virus (hMPXV) above. It's still in its infancy. We don't know how long pox virus mutations will take to select for efficient airborne transmission. Once they do, you'll see why SARS-CoV-2 was a relatively easy challenge.

https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1665694428269273093

@JessicaLexicus @ECDC_EU Party knowledge: I thought most bots were gone, but somehow @LuisaOchs86374 automated a script that adds current #Mpox #Monkeypox cases for 2022/2023 when you mention the term. The data is missing Taiwan, on its own 60 cases in May!
nidss.cdc.gov.tw/en/nndss/disea…

https://twitter.com/LuisaOchs86374/status/1663989815065419776

@JessicaLexicus @ECDC_EU @LuisaOchs86374 Advanced party knowledge: Smallpox is well researched (I think?) due to its relevance in biosecurity and recent eradication. Get a headstart by reading the basics. While I currently lack the time to summarize the hMPXV literature, here the search term: scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo…

Even at a rate of 100,000 infections in a year, hMPXV is undergoing strong positive selection pressure as it adapts to human hosts, including chronic infections lasting hundreds of days. SARS-CoV manages as many within hours. Just two papers out of many: mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/1…

APOBEC3F and co-infection in patients with uncontrolled HIV play an important role. @RealCheckMarker mentioned mutations in a SARS-CoV-2 co-infected patient may have caused the pandemic. Alternatively, patient zero may have had an untreated HIV infection. academic.oup.com/jid/advance-ar…

@RealCheckMarker A party question for journalists. How long did the SARS survivors live? @RealCheckMarker can't help you here because the data isn't public. Did you all send FOIA requests?

You accepted 6-7 billion children and adults infected, without knowing the LE loss?

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1665746670229831680