Volodymyr Dacenko Profile picture
Jun 8 15 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
What happened to Kakhovska HPP
Debunking myths about self-destruction
1/15
@CITeam_en @nytimes @TheStudyofWar @washingtonpost @leonidvolkov @shashj ImageImageImageImage
1. Some believe that the dam collapsed on its own due to previous damage. Satellite images of water discharge are cited as evidence 2/15 Image
3/15 But it is enough to look at satellite images from last year (before the first blow-up of the HPP station by the Russians - 2022/10/18) to make sure that the pattern of water discharge was the same and does not indicate damage to the dam
4/15 For comparison, a picture of the HPP on October 15, 2022 (before the first destruction) and June 5, 2023 (where there are allegedly signs of a bad condition of the HPP)
Image
2.The destruction of the HPP is not of a cascading nature, but zonal, and the epicenters of the destruction are far from the place of detonation on October 18, 2022
During last year's retreat, the Ru blew up the upper part above the three sluice gates on the right bank side 5/15 Image
6/15 Now destroyed about 14 sections of the dam on the other side of the previous explosion, the engine room and the dam between the HPP and the lock.
Accordingly, there is no cascading nature of destruction.
3. The structure of the HPP is not monolithic, and therefore the cascading nature of the destruction should not, in principle, occur. In essence, each section that holds the sluice gate is a separate reinforced concrete support 7/15
8/15 That is, damage to one support does not lead to damage to another. Metal shields are a much more vulnerable part of the dam than reinforced concrete supports, and self-destruction would have a completely different appearance - the collapse of the shields
4. The Russians deliberately kept the water level in the reservoir at the maximum. First, to fill the reservoirs in Crimea as much as possible. Secondly, to achieve the maximum flood wave. The time of the detonation was also chosen for this purpose 9/15
5. I am attaching photos of the construction of the HPP to understand the scale of the structure and safety margin. It is very difficult to believe that the engine room was "washed away with water" 10/15 Image
11/15 And it is not clear why it was "washed away" not from the side of the previous explosion, but from the side of the left bank.
6. The Kakhovska HPP cannot be destroyed in any other way than by placing a large amount of explosive charge in the base of the structure. During the first detonation of the old Kakhovska HPP in 1941, the Soviet authorities needed 20 tons of explosives 12/15
13/15 Therefore, the story about the "hit" on the hydroelectric power plant and the destruction of the dam by the 93-kilogram GMLRS is an even bigger fiction than the story about "self-destruction".
7. It was Russia that controlled the HPP all this time. Russia blew up the dam for the first time on October 18, 2022. Russia kept the water level in the reservoir at a maximum 14/15
15/15 It is impossible to believe that someone could plant several tons of explosives unnoticed by the Russians. Russia did it on purpose and tried to achieve the maximum effect of its crime.

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More from @Volodymyr_D_

May 9
Before a counteroffensive, Ukraine probably has as many tanks as Russia.
Russia has also lost most of its advantage in ground military equipment.
Brief overview: 1/5 Image
2/5 Ukraine had 858 tanks at the beginning of the war (the Military Balance). In 14 months, 605+ tanks were delivered by the Allies (including about 90+ Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks). Another 80 Leopard 1 will arrive in June. Also, the AFU captured at least 544 Ru tanks
3/5 Oryx estimates UA losses at 495 tanks. According to experts, Oryx data cover about 80% of total losses. Therefore, the total losses of UA may amount to 620 tanks.
Thus, the available number of tanks for a counteroffensive is 1400 or so.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 17
Comparison of the cost of destroying a target with different weapons 1/7
#RussiaUkraineWar #OSINT #javelin #UAV @sambendett @SpencerGuard @shashj @FeWoessner @RALee85 @ragnarbjartur
Target - infantry: Image
2/7 Target - armor: Image
3/7 I recently did some research on the cost of destroying different targets with different means here. Now I have detailed and clarified it.
forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine…
Read 7 tweets
Mar 20
Chronology of the battle for Bakhmut
#RussianUkrainianWar @Deepstate_UA #Bakhmut
1/8
2/ The battle in the Bakhmut direction began after Popasnaya and Svitlodarsk were captured by Ru in May 2022. Bakhmut became the next city on the way of the Ru army. It is hard to imagine, but already in June 2022 Ru troops were 10 km from Bakhmut
3/ But in general, the pace of the offensive was the highest in the first months of the fighting. At that time, Russia captured territories 5 times larger than now, losing 10 times fewer soldiers.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 15
We all see many statements about war losses that are difficult to put together.
How can Ukraine lose 5 times fewer killed and at the same time the total number of losses is called 200K/120K in Ru/Ua?
I will try to explain it briefly:
#RussiaUkraineWar #RussianArmy
1/14
2/14
1. Different ratio of killed/wounded
In the Russian army, the ratio of killed/wounded troops is usually called 1/3. In the Ukrainian army - 1/7-1/8, and sometimes even as much as 1/10 or more.
There is a great point @shashj about this:
3/14
2. Different types of troops
When they talk about the losses of the Russian army, they usually mean the regular troops of Ru. But in addition, more than 50K "LDNR", 50K "Wagner", and several thousand volunteer battalions such as "Bars", "Rusich" and others.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 15
Losses in wars
I decided to compare losses in different wars in order to understand how big Russia's losses are in this war
1/12
#RussianArmy #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar
2/12 Average daily losses of the main attacking country:
1. Germany (World War II) - 2415 killed soldiers per day.
2. USSR (Finnish War 1939) - 1440
3. Germany (World War I) - 1280
4. Russia (Ukrainian war 2022) - 380 (about 650 per day after mobilization).
3/12
5. North Korea (Korean War 1950) - 337
6. Russia (Russian-Japanese War 1904) - 115
7. Russia (First Chechen War 1994) - 22
8. USA (War in Vietnam 1964-75) - 20
9. USSR (Afghan War 1979-1989) - 4
10. USA (Iraq War 2003-2009) - 2
Read 12 tweets
Jan 23
How Russia's tactics have changed since the beginning of the war - 4 strategies of the Russian command 1/
#russianlosses #Russiawar #UkraineRussiaWar ImageImage
Phase I - Blitzkrieg
Initially, the Ru attack was planned as a large-scale rapid operation from the air, land and water. It was planned in 4 acts:
Act 1: A large-scale missile attack was supposed to suppress the Ukrainian air defense system and create chaos in defense management
Act 2: The main role was planned for amphibious operations. Which were to quickly capture key objects and capture government buildings in the main cities - Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa
Ru planned to use hundreds of helicopters, at least 18 large Il-76 planes and a naval landing force
Read 25 tweets

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