ISW Profile picture
Jun 8 15 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The Ukrainian #counteroffensive has begun.

Activity throughout #Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are underway across the theater.

🧵on what we’re seeing & how to evaluate this activity ⬇️ isw.pub/InteractiveUkr…
2/ Ukrainian officials have long signaled that there will not be an announcement that the #counteroffensive has begun.
3/ The #counteroffensive won’t likely unfold as a single grand operation. It will likely consist of many undertakings at numerous locations of varying size and intensity over many weeks.
4/ The initial #counteroffensive operations may be the most difficult and slowest, as they involve penetrating prepared defensive positions. Initial setbacks are to be expected. This phase may also see the highest Ukrainian losses.
5/ Militaries have long identified the penetration phase of a mechanized offensive as the most dangerous and costly. The success or failure of this phase may not be apparent for some time.
6/ Ukrainian forces are continuing to try to surprise the Russians about where the main effort will be.

ISW will not offer assessments about the weighting of Ukrainian #counteroffensive operations in real-time.
7/ Ukrainian officials yesterday announced that Ukrainian troops have moved onto the offensive in #Bakhmut.
8/ Ukrainian military officials announced yesterday that Ukrainian troops advanced 200m-1km deep in unspecified sectors of the #Bakhmut area. Russian sources are concerned about Ukrainian attacks on the southwestern/northwestern/northeastern outskirts of the city.
9/ Along with official declarations of Ukrainian offensive intent in #Bakhmut, ISW has observed a general uptick in military activity across the entire frontline, not all of it part of the Ukrainian counter-offensive effort.
10/ Russian forces are attacking, and Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in limited sectors of the #Kharkiv-#Luhansk Oblast frontline. Russian sources have claimed limited success in areas northeast of #Kupyansk over the past few days.
11/ Ukrainian forces have conducted localized attacks in the western #Donetsk-eastern #Zaporizhia oblast border area over the past few days. Russian sources have reported that some critical settlements in this sector are still contested.
12/ Ukrainian forces appear to be conducting ground attacks in western #Zaporizhia Oblast in the area south/southwest of #Orikhiv on June 7-8. Russian milbloggers have been the most concerned about this area since early 2023.
13/ Russian sources are claiming that Ukrainian forces have committed #Leopard tanks and other Western kit to these attacks, which some Western sources have confirmed.
14/ Defining any one of these sets of tactical actions as “the counteroffensive” is inappropriate. Ukrainian forces are conducting a variety of operations across the front, and the #counteroffensive operation will unfold over time.
15/ ISW will provide additional updates on the situation on the ground in #Ukraine in today’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. understandingwar.org

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with ISW

ISW Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TheStudyofWar

Jun 9
Ukrainian attacks in western #Zaporizhia on June 8 do not represent the full extent of Ukrainian capabilities in the current #counteroffensive. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
2/ #Ukraine appears to have committed only a portion of the large reserve of forces available for counteroffensive operations.
3/ It is additionally noteworthy that the Russian Southern Military District Forces deployed in this particular area are likely to be a higher quality force grouping than Russia has elsewhere in theater...
Read 6 tweets
Jun 9
Russian forces appear to have executed their formal tactical defensive doctrine in response to the Ukrainian attacks southwest of Orikhiv. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
2/ Russian doctrine for a defending motorized rifle battalion calls for a first echelon of troops to repel or slow attacking forces with minefields, fortifications, and strongpoints, with a second echelon of forces counterattacking against an enemy breakthrough.
3/ Russian forces apparently operated in this fashion in this sector – Ukrainian forces penetrated the initial defensive lines; Russian forces pulled back to a second line of fortifications; and Russian reserves subsequently counterattacked to retake the initial line of defenses.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 9
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to the Ukrainian attack in western #Zaporizhia Oblast with an uncharacteristic degree of coherency and praised Southern Military District elements for repelling the attack and regaining lost positions. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
2/ The overall Russian response to the attack, both among milbloggers and the MoD, was notably coherent and relatively consistent with the available visual evidence, which may suggest that Russian forces were not surprised and reacted in a controlled and militarily sound manner.
3/ As ISW has previously assessed, the Russian information space reacts with a high degree of chaos and incoherence when taken by surprise by battlefield developments that do not allow the propaganda apparatus to develop a clear line.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 9
Ukrainian forces conducted a limited but still significant attack in western #Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8. Russian forces apparently defended against this attack in a doctrinally sound manner and had reportedly regained their initial positions as of June 8.🧵⬇️ Image
2/ Russian sources began reporting late at night on June 7 that elements of Ukrainian brigades that have recently been equipped with Western kit launched an attack southwest of Orikhiv in western #Zaporizhia Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
3/ Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked along the Mala Tokmachka-Polohy line with the aim of breaking through the Russian defensive line between Robotyne and Verbove (both about 15km southeast of Orikhiv). isw.pub/UkrWar060823
Read 6 tweets
Jun 9
NEW: #Ukraine has conducted #counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.

Latest assessment w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar060823 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Ukrainian officials signaled that Ukrainian forces have transitioned from defensive to offensive operations in the #Bakhmut sector and are making gains of between 200 meters and nearly two kilometers on the flanks of the city. Image
3/ Ukrainian forces have made tactical gains during limited localized counterattacks in western #Donetsk Oblast near the #Donetsk-#Zaporizhia Oblast border since June 4. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 8
Ukrainian officials continued to accuse Russian forces of destroying the #KakhovkaDam out of fear that Ukrainian forces would land on the east (left) bank #Kherson Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar060723
2/ Russian milbloggers had expressed concern about claimed Ukrainian river crossings onto the east bank the day before the destruction of the #KakhovkaHPP dam and on numerous occasions in the past.
3/ ISW offers no assessment of whether the Ukrainians were attempting to cross the river or for what purpose they might have sought to do so. isw.pub/UkrWar060723
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(