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JennyManyDots Profile picture
@jenstilmanydots
Jun 10 • 5 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Commodity sector continues its strong start to June with the Bloomberg Commodity Index trading up 3.5% to a three-week high
Technical perspective: #copper, #gold, #silver are all showing signs of bottoming out with multiple factors adding support (1/5)
home.saxo/content/articl…
Apart from a softer dollar providing a general lift following weeks of strength, we are seeing increased speculation that the Chinese government may step up its support for the economy and some signs that demand is holding up
Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index remains down 8% on the year with losses being led by the energy sector, not least a 56% slump in US natural gas, as well as industrial metals suffering from a so far, less commodity intensive post-pandemic recovery in China. Image
SAXO: we view current copper weakness as temporary as the green transformation theme in the coming years will continue to provide a strong tailwind for copper – the best electrical-conducting metal towards the green transformation Image
SAXO on #gold: Image

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More from @jenstilmanydots

JennyManyDots Profile picture
Jun 12
2023 might be 1936 all over again - beyond the weather 🤔

Yes, I'm a nerd🤓
Spent my entire afternoon looking at El Niño (blue) & La Niña (pink) data for the past century. Stars reflect triple dip La Niña, which we just finished. Might explain our unusually dry weather./thread Image
Weaker triple dip La Niñas occurred in 1973-76 & 1998-2001 - perhaps why the drought severity wasn't as extreme as previous triple dips. ImageImage
From mid-April 2022 more than 97% of Texas was gripped by drought
👋 Hi Texas - if history is any guide, then it looks like El Niño will bring you some relief.
Yup, appears to be happening... ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
JennyManyDots Profile picture
Jun 11
NYT 1977
The major extreme in the US at the moment is drought. It extends over 30% of the country and is spreading. Water rationing, which began in California, is now commonplace throughout the West and has spread into Iowa and as far east as NC.(1/4)
nytimes.com/1977/07/14/arc… Image
Nearly 3/4s of the nation's rivers are flowing below normal, according to the USGS.
Why the extreme fluctuations nobody knows for sure. Explanations include cyclical changes in solar activity, in elliptical warps of the earth's orbit, in gravitational pulls of other planets,
and volcanic activity to name a few. Some scientists assert that man's pollution may be responsible. Some laymen believe governments are secretly manipulating the weather in a kind of climatic warfare.
Read 4 tweets
JennyManyDots Profile picture
Jun 11
India drought: The Great Disruptor for 2023
While everyone keeps looking over to China for supply/demand side signals for most ag market prices, instead the market should be looking over to India as the surprise catalyst for 2023.
(1/4)
barchart.com/story/news/176…
June is looking to be the driest and hottest seen in decades.
July is the wettest, most important month of the growing season for India; if July misses there is no way to recover crop potential. July could be the worst monsoon season since the failed July of 2002.
India experiencing strong economic growth with some of the best demographics in the world and arguably the most populace country in the world…India might be the new demand source to drive Ag prices higher as China did back in the 2000's.
Read 4 tweets
JennyManyDots Profile picture
Jun 11
OPEC+ in "a state of readiness" amid a divergence between the physical and futures oil markets, which has prompted the 23-member alliance to take decisions that are preemptive, precautionary and proactive, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said June 11 (1/5)
spglobal.com/commodityinsig…
"I think the physical market is telling us something, I think the futures market is telling us something else," Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the Arab China Business Conference streamed live from Riyadh.
Brushing off criticism of the latest OPEC+ decisions, Prince Abdulaziz said he tolerates "all mockeries," adding "I am much more interested with my colleagues in OPEC+ to do the job of being a proper regulator."
Read 5 tweets
JennyManyDots Profile picture
Jun 9
EV sales are soaring and oil use is about to peak

(quoting the article from Bloomberg - don't shoot the messenger...although I have often mentioned the stat on the right that energy bulls don't seem to care about)

Thread of 4
mining.com/web/ev-sales-a… ImageImage
Sales of combustion-engine vehicles peaked six years ago and are now in long-term decline. Oil demand from road transport is also very close to cresting. Image
BNEF estimates that between $24 billion and $57 billion in battery and component plant investment is needed each year to keep up with demand. It’s looking good: Spending already totaled $59 billion in 2022. Image
Read 4 tweets
JennyManyDots Profile picture
May 8
5 key charts to watch in global commodity markets this week
1. OIL
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
2. Saudi Aramco likely made net income of just over $32 billion, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. That would mark a slowdown from a year earlier — similar to other oil firms that have already reported Image
3. Energy stocks- a look at the technicals adds to the bearish sentiment: The gauge’s 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day average last week in a so-called death cross, the first time since late 2018. That often signals that further selling pressure is in store. Image
Read 5 tweets

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