Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Jun 12 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Critical_Infrastructure: Russian occupation forces are reportedly mining the Crimea Titan factory in Armiansk, the biggest titanium dioxide producer in Eastern Europe. Another weaponization of critical infrastructure in Ukraine by Russia. The factory is using ⤵️ Image
technological ammonia for refrigeration purposes.
Such a sabotage action by Russia put at risk of explosion up to 200 tons of ammonia. The factory explosion will be another Russian man-made disaster to contaminate the southern part of Kherson, which is already facing a ⤵️
series of crises following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. Russia seeks to make it difficult for Ukrainian forces to enter the rest of Crimea. That means Russia is preparing for the worst case scenario for its occupying forces.⤵️
Thus, Moscow admits that the Ukrainian counteroffensive can be effective in driving the Russian army out of Zaporizhzhia into a retreat to the Crimea.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Jun 11
#Nagorno_Karabakh: The decoupling of the breakaway region from Armenia is creating sources of crisis. Since Armenia's electricity supply was cut off, allegedly by Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh increased power production from local hydropower. That leads to excessive⤵️
consumption of water from the reservoir. The restriction in the Lachin corridor has pushed local producers to substitute certain supplies from Armenia by increasing irrigation. The deconstruction of the interdependencies between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh⤵️
under pressure from Baku (which wants to take the control over its territory) creates high risks of new crises in the region. This keeps tensions up, which is counterproductive for the peace process between Yerevan and Baku.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 1
#EU: The European Political Community summit in Moldova is kicking off. This is a geopolitical event and the Russian aggression against Ukraine contributed to the mobilization of European leaders to join it. Read more about the nature and functions of EPC in our latest article👇
I am opening a thread on this event: 1) Zelensky was in Odessa and from there he can travel to Chisinau by train. Many international journalists are waiting at the main train station in Moldova’s capital; 2) Erdogan is not coming and Turkey will be underrepresented.⤵️
3) Trains from Chisinau run to Bulboaca (35 km) to Mimi Castle to cover the summit.
Read 13 tweets
May 31
#EU_Enlargement: The EU is offering support to the new candidate states like Moldova. However, it is curious how the information about the support is communicated. Here are some short remarks:⤵️
1) The lowering of the roaming tariffs is a right step, but this is a spillover effect from the recent decision adopted for the Western Balkans. In other words, the measure is not exceptional and it can be replicated to other⤵️
small countries in the Wider Europe (not to Ukraine for now); 2) The EU speaks about increasing the amount of financial aid. However, it has already transferred or pledged more than 1 billion euro last year. So, out of 1.6 billion euros mentioned today 1.2 billion euros⤵️
Read 8 tweets
May 30
#Moldova_EU: The decision of the EU Council to sanction a list of 5 persons (including fugitive oligarchs and a Russian cleptocrat), considered destabilizing the country (in favor of Russia), is coming into force. The Moldovan govt has advocated for this decision. ⤵️
However, it seems that the scope of the EU sanctions is partly misinterpreted. The Moldovan president claims that the sanctions make it possible to confiscate the assets of the sanctioned politicians, some of whom are fugitive oligarchs. This is not exactly how ⤵️
individual EU sanctions work: 1) the sanctions regime allows for visa bans and asset freezes; 2) financial transactions for sanctioned persons are prohibited; 3) sanctions do not provide for confiscation in any way (unless this ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
May 30
#Georgia: PM Garibashvili basically excused Russia's aggression against Ukraine with Kyiv's intention to join NATO and warned the EU not to ignore Georgia's candidate status because serios costs could follow. A few observations:⤵️
1) The ruling party in Georgia is deliberately antagonizing relations with Western & Ukrainian decision makers alike; 2) The discourse used by Garibashvili replicates what China, India and the actors of the Global South are operating based on distorted Russian interpretations;⤵️
3) The govt is well aware of how toxic any association with Russia is; thus, the use of Russian disinformation talking points is deliberate because it is too repetitive to be accidental or made of cognitive dissonance; 4) The govt tries to⤵️
Read 7 tweets
May 30
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Power politics dominates Azerbaijan's position in both peace deal and Nagorno-Karabakh separatist region future status:⤵️
1) Aliyev offers amnesty to Nagorno-Karabakh de facto administration, but only if it dissolves bodies that govern the unrecognized region; 2) Baku says that it could use military force to take control if it wanted to, but it shows patience;⤵️
3) Aliyev is clearly not interested in any kind of special status for Nagorno-Karabakh and instead demands full surrender and radical revision of the status-quo; 4) Russian peacekeeping forces, but even more so reputational costs and int sanctions are the⤵️
Read 8 tweets

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