Andreas Umland Profile picture
Jun 14 7 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
THREAD:

An interesting policy proposal in this article by @SKaraganov in @ru_global:
He seems to suggest to throw nuclear war heads on countries that have
(a) not attacked Russian state territory, and
(b) have not even sent any troops to Ukraine. /1

globalaffairs.ru/articles/tyazh…
An atomic explosion as an answer to economic sanctions, and delivering some hardware, information & training to Ukraine? Perhaps, Russia and other nuclear-weapon states could then also use nuclear threats in their regular trade relations? /2

@Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia
@ictopyk
Some if not most Ukrainians might support Karaganov's idea to directly involve third countries in the war. Finally, there would be real military allies! /3

@DipAcademyUA @LawUkrainian @Biz_Ukraine_Mag @BritUkrAid @ukrainiansquad
Ideally, the Washington Treaty's Article 5 will be triggered, and @NATO would be looking for suitable Russian targets outside Russian state territory. Most of them are in Ukraine. Karaganov's proposal amounts thus to a plan to liberate Ukraine. Did the SBU pay him? /4
Thanks to @MSnegovaya for drawing attention to this article in the journal "#RussiainGlobalAffairs" published by #FIMP in collaboration with @HSE_eng, @SVOP_1992 & @Russian_Council.

Cc: @4freerussia_org @KasparovRu @NemtsovF
@InModernRussia @freerussiahouse
@meduzaproject
PS: Note that an old prophecy by the late @Vangababa predicted something like #SergeyKaraganov's scenario.

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More from @UmlandAndreas

Jun 12
Brief thread:

Chinese weaponry and military equipment is now - in addition to large amounts of civilian Chinese goods and equipment - more and more supporting Russia's war of conquest in Ukraine. /1

@tonline
t-online.de/nachrichten/uk…
This raises more and more questions about the assurances Beijing gave to Kyiv in its 1994 governmental declaration in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the NPT, and in the 2013 friendship treaty between China and Ukraine fully ratified in 2015. /2
Kyiv and other East European capitals may have to reconsider their relationships to Beijing and Taipei in the way that Vilnius already has. There is war with millions of victims, after all. /3

@DipAcademyUA @September_UA @Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia
Read 5 tweets
Jun 9
Misunderstanding of the sad events in Ukraine continues:

Most observers still seem oblivious to the fact that not only Ukraine but humankind's legal order and security system are being destroyed.../1

@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @TerekMedia @LawUkrainian @ictopyk Image
Every new Russian action of mass terror against Ukrainian civilians and subsequent international inaction or half measure confirm: Even the most bloodthirsty might will remain right if one is sufficiently ruthless.../2

@rightsinrussia @SakharovCentre @DUF_Forum @IDMVienna
Russia is an official nuclear-weapon state under the #NPT & allowed to have atomic arms. Since 2014, it has been punishing the non-nuclear-weapon state Ukraine for its weakness & for being forbidden, by the NPT, to possess atomic arms.../3

@USNPT @EU_NonProlif @TheNonproReview
Read 10 tweets
May 31
THREAD
Ukronazism & similar constructs are, in view of the political marginality of Ukrainian fascism today, not antifascist terms. Such labels are often accompanied by bloating of minor phenomena, or even falsified stories or pictures, as those below. /1
amp.dw.com/en/fact-check-…
Terms like "#Ukronazism" are designed to dehumanize self-identifying #Ukrainians & to justify their #genocide by an imperialist, far-right & anti-egalitarian regime./2

@FFRAFAction @fghtfascism @vvn_bda @FascismJournal @BAntifaschismus @ColletivoA @ak_antifascism @derrechterand
Not only US and other ultra-conservative circles, but paradoxically also much of the world-wide #radicalleft indirectly supports this Russian ultra-nationalist project today.

@the_left @socialistes_cat @left_politics @LeftWingSociety @pslnational @dieLinke @Linksfraktion
Read 4 tweets
May 6
While it is prudent to prepare for a long war, I expect it to be short or at least not long - for the reasons Łukasz Adamski outlined in a Facebook comment to @MykolaKapitone1's posting of the Ukrainian version.../2

@MieroszewskiPL @LukaszAdamskiPL
The likelihood of internal instability in Russia rises with every additional day of war. Ukraine is under domestic stress too, but will probably muddle through, for now. War changes everything, all the time. In Russia, it is for the worse rather than better.../3

@WarInstitute
Read 6 tweets
Apr 11
This horrible scene is, like the previous publication of the shooting of a Ukrainian soldier, not a spontaneous action. Rather, it is a purposeful, KGB-style "reflexive control" operation designed to drive Moscow's enemy to behave in a way that benefits Moscow. /1
The aim of staging and circulating such horrible scenes seems to be to radicalize Ukrainian soldiers or to make their radicalizaiton appear plausible. A radicalization of Ukraine's society and army is beneficial to Moscow, as this will feed back on defeatist Russian soldiers./2
The more radicalized the Ukrainian army is or can be portrayed by the Kremlin, the better for Moscow. The more implicated the Russian army is in mass crimes and horrible actions like this one, the better for Moscow./3
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
Kurzkommentar zur heutigen Rede von #WladimirPutin:

Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt dieser #PutinRede war der angeblich defensive und reaktive Charakter von Russlands offensivem und völkermörderischem Krieg.... /1

@SCEEUS_UI @UISweden @DUF_Forum @IDMVienna @RusVerstehen @TerekMedia
@SCEEUS_UI @UISweden @DUF_Forum @IDMVienna @RusVerstehen @TerekMedia @Konflikt_Sicher @Osteuropakanal @DGO_Berlin @swud_org @pw_portal @GSPSipo Putins Darstellung der #Großinvasion der Ukraine im Februar 2022 als provoziert durch westliche Pläne und Aktivitäten zum Angriff auf #Russland richtete sich sowohl an das heimische als auch an das ausländische Publikum... /2

CC: @IGFrieden @FIfF_de @dsfrieden @MucFriedenskonf
@SCEEUS_UI @UISweden @DUF_Forum @IDMVienna @RusVerstehen @TerekMedia @Konflikt_Sicher @Osteuropakanal @DGO_Berlin @swud_org @pw_portal @GSPSipo @IGFrieden @FIfF_de @dsfrieden @MucFriedenskonf Die interne Unterstützung für die russische so genannte "#Spezialoperation" und internationale Geduld mit ihr nehmen ab. Gleichzeitig kann Moskau weder beeindruckende militärische Siege noch plausible Szenarien für eine Beendigung des Krieges... /3

CC: @karenina_pdo @deruforum
Read 5 tweets

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