Joeri Rogelj Profile picture
Jun 14 7 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
In 2021, the European Climate Law created the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change @esabcc_eu and tasked it to inform the EU’s #2040ClimateTarget and 2030-2050 greenhouse gas (GHG) budget.

Today, @esabcc_eu published its advice.
Here’s the short version 🧵1/n Image
The Advisory Board recommends the @EU_Commission to take up:

a 2040 emissions reduction target of 90–95% compared to 1990

to keep the EU’s GHG budget to within 11 to 14 Gt CO2e between 2030 and 2050.
2/n
This advice is based on an assessment of what would be both a fair and a feasible emissions reduction contribution of the EU to the global challenge of keeping warming to 1.5°C. 3/n
The advice highlights that aiming for the more ambitious end of the 90–95% range in 2040 will further improve the fairness of the EU’s contribution. 4/n
However, because none of the assessed pathways towards climate neutrality fully align with the fair share estimates, additional measures outside the EU need to be pursued to achieve a fair EU contribution to global climate change mitigation. 5/n
It was an honour and privilege to contribute to this advice together with 14 world-leading expert colleagues and the enormous support of the @esabcc_eu secretariat. 6/n

climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/about/advisory…
The full #2040ClimateTarget advice can be found on the @esabcc_eu website.
climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/reports-and-pu…
/end

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More from @JoeriRogelj

Jun 14
Today, the @esabcc_eu published its advice for the @EU_Commission's #2040ClimateTarget proposal and accompanying #GreenhouseGasEmissionsBudget

Interested in how the advice was developed?
Here’s a slightly longer explainer of the underlying report

🧵

climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/reports-and-pu…
1/n
The Advisory Board recommends the EU to take up a 2040 emissions reduction target of 90–95% compared to 1990 to keep the EU’s GHG budget to within 11 to 14 Gt CO2e between 2030 and 2050. #2040ClimateTarget #GreenhouseGasEmissionsBudget

Where do these numbers come from?

2/n
To arrive at this #2040ClimateTarget advice, the @esabcc_eu implemented its earlier recommendation to the @EU_Commission to follow an approach that is systematic, transparent and guided by EU values, when preparing its EU 2040 climate target proposal. 4/n
Read 23 tweets
Oct 27, 2022
Where are global emissions heading and where should they be going to keep #globalwarming well below 2C and 1.5C?

Today, @UNEP released the 2022 #emissionsgap report.

A look at the key messages

but caution, not much good news ahead 🧵/1
Countries’ new and updated pledges (NDCs) submitted since COP26 reduce projected global GHG emissions in 2030 by only 0.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) compared with projections based on pledges at the time of COP26.
Some pledges result in even higher emissions /2
Countries are off track to achieve even the globally highly insufficient NDCs. Global GHG emissions in 2030 based on current policies are estimated at 58 GtCO2e. The implementation gap in 2030 between policies and NDCs is about 3 to 6 GtCO2e. /3
Read 24 tweets
Feb 7, 2022
Excellent conversation going on about how media messaging following the @IPCC_CH 1.5 report sating we have "12 years left" until [your favorite climate pandemonium term] has been a disservice to science communication, and is damaging to date 👇
(1/n) @guardian @Fridays4future
As one of the coordinating authors of the report I can only wholeheartedly agree with @bobkopp @PFriedling @theresphysics and others that this is a dangerous misrepresentation of the report's assessment and messages.

Let me explain why

(2/n)
Ironically, the "12 year left until climate catastrophe" message (with years being reduced as time passes) is wrong and damaging in two opposite ways:

misrepresentation through exaggeration and driving complacency through inaccurate messaging
(3/n)
Read 12 tweets
Nov 30, 2021
Two years ago - we published a new scenario logic to avoid risky and unfair climate change scenarios in @Nature.

Yesterday, two new studies in @NatureClimate apply this logic and find that avoiding overshoot is the right thing to do both to reduce risks and overall costs.
/1
Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then results in scenarios that suggest the best way to meet a target is to plan to first miss it.

Weird, irresponsible, and arguably wrong.
/2

nature.com/articles/s4158…
I explained this logic and its implications further in a long 🧵at the time:

and also in this @CarbonBrief post on how to avoid risky and unfair scenarios.

/3

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how…
Read 9 tweets
Nov 13, 2021
#COP26 is concluding after two years of work with some important decisions.

Some highlights of those areas I have followed most closely:
1) science
2) increased ambition
3) the Paris Rulebook

Some quick reflections (1/n)
1) science
For the first time ever, scientific evidence is included as a key framing of the various COP decisions. This is historic and includes strong messages on the scientific requirements as identified by @IPCC_CH to keep warming to 1.5C.
(2/n)
It includes required emissions reductions of -45% by 2030, and the need of reaching net zero.

The one bitter pill here is the last minute change from a "phase-out" to a "phase-down" of unabated coal power - very uncool and irresponsible
(3/n)
Read 11 tweets
Nov 10, 2021
New #COP26 analysis: 🚨🌡️🌍
Is COP26 on track to keep 1.5°C alive?

Here I connect the dots between findings of the most recent scientific reports and look at what current pledges mean for carbon budgets limiting warming to 1.5C

(1/n)
I start with historical CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Project @gcarbonproject as assessed in the latest @IPCC_CH #AR6 #ClimateReport

About 2400 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) have already been emitted between the years 1850 and the end of 2019 (2/n)
I then add global emissions pathways consistent with current policies, and various interpretations of country pledges (called NDCs, or nationally determined contributions) from the latest update of the @UNEP #EmissionsGap Report 2021. (3/n)

wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/hand…
Read 10 tweets

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