The largest dollar devaluation in the shortest period of time is likely coming in 2024/25.

Why?

Because the FED balance sheet is monetized to carry the US government interest expense since 2008 with a lag of 36 months.

#Bitcoin to new highs in this case.

Full credit @RaoulGMI Image
The US interest expense made an all-time high on July 2021, with the FED balance sheet lagging behind 36 months this means we are likely going to see new highs there in July 2024.

#Bitcoin is the most efficient hedge against monetary inflation.
Act accordingly. Image
Why did the interest expense spike?

Because they issued extreme amount of debt to get through COVID while the economy was basically dead.

To top it off that was followed by the most extreme rate hike cycle in history.

At some point the debt will be refinanced at the new rates.
Please verify yourself, sources:

The white line is on US govt interest expense:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1…

The orange line is FED balance sheet:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

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More from @JJcycles

May 30
Since there almost is a debt ceiling raise deal, the US treasury will soon begin refilling its reserves (TGA).

Currently, their reserves hold 38 bln USD.

Liquidity that is added to this reserve is USD liquidity taken away from the market and I expect this to happen soon.

1/5 Image
We have to follow the total USD liquidity to say whether this is good or bad for risk assets.

- FED Balance sheet increasing means more available liquidity
- TGA increasing means less available liquidity
- RRP increasing means less available liquidity

2/5
So the FED balance sheet is something we have to watch while the Treasury refills their reserves.

Their balance sheet currently sits at 8436 bln USD.

As yields rise due to Treasury bonds issuance, I do not rule out balance sheet expansion here to ensure treasury liquidity.

3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 7
Contrarian statement:

‘Rates higher for longer ultimately leads to more inflation’

Why? Let’s discuss🧵 Image
The FED is trying to destroy demand by raising rates. To some extent, it is already leading to (temporary) disinflation.

You can see it in different ways but the mainly by simply watching (core) CPI which is coming down consistently for several months on a YoY basis.

2/16
While the FED is raising rates they are also ‘rolling off’ their balance sheet.

The FED balance sheet consists of assets:
- US treasuries (us government bonds)
- Mortgage-backed securities (MBS)

FED also has liabilities:
- Bank reserves
- Dollars (paper currency)

3/16
Read 16 tweets
Jan 27
Today I'm working on this thread to reveal one of my longterm holds for the coming cycle.

Regardless of whether this is a bearmarket rally or the beginning of a new bullrun, in my opinion this is THE time to scale into the most promising Altcoins that bring real value.

1/25 🧵
Some time ago I mentioned that the main narratives for the next cycle will be:

1. Artificial Intelligence
2. Decentralized Finance
3. Metaverse / gaming

Today I want to focus on DeFi.

2/25
The entire DeFi sector started the bearmarket earlier compared to the overall crypto market.

For example take a look at the two leading Decentralized exchanges $UNI and $SUSHI and see how Bitcoin continued to make a second high in 2021 while DeFi topped early in 2021.

3/25
Read 25 tweets
Jan 25
Last week, #Bitcoin broke above the 2022 downtrend and it has been retesting it for several days.

SPX has been pressing the downtrend for some days too.

Similarly is Gold nearing major resistance.

Either we get a massive rejection in all assetclasses, or a big squeeze.

1/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14
Alright listen,

I have zero clue what will happen in the short term, #BTC might take out 21k, 24k. It might correct here, idk.

What I do know is that there are MASSIVE catalysts incoming that will give this uptrend legs.

For starters, macro falling wedge breakout soon:
Also, Gold is legit ready to break All Time Highs.

This is yet another catalyst to continue this melt up like behaviour.

#Gold
Equities are ready to breakout from their 2021/2022 downtrend.

$SPX
Read 5 tweets
Jan 2
While Crypto Twitter is doubting the future of Crypto,

the BIS (bank of the central banks) is releasing another publication on regulation in crypto exposure for central banks.

Goal: implementation by 2025

16 Dec 2022 they released the document.

Small summary ....🧵
Contents of the document:
After the introduction, the authors of the document attempt to make a classification of different types of cryptoassets.

Different rules apply to different groups is the idea here.
Different groups with different risks is what the authors imply.
Read 6 tweets

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