The US interest expense made an all-time high on July 2021, with the FED balance sheet lagging behind 36 months this means we are likely going to see new highs there in July 2024.
#Bitcoin is the most efficient hedge against monetary inflation.
Act accordingly.
Why did the interest expense spike?
Because they issued extreme amount of debt to get through COVID while the economy was basically dead.
To top it off that was followed by the most extreme rate hike cycle in history.
At some point the debt will be refinanced at the new rates.
Since there almost is a debt ceiling raise deal, the US treasury will soon begin refilling its reserves (TGA).
Currently, their reserves hold 38 bln USD.
Liquidity that is added to this reserve is USD liquidity taken away from the market and I expect this to happen soon.
1/5
We have to follow the total USD liquidity to say whether this is good or bad for risk assets.
- FED Balance sheet increasing means more available liquidity
- TGA increasing means less available liquidity
- RRP increasing means less available liquidity
2/5
So the FED balance sheet is something we have to watch while the Treasury refills their reserves.
Their balance sheet currently sits at 8436 bln USD.
As yields rise due to Treasury bonds issuance, I do not rule out balance sheet expansion here to ensure treasury liquidity.
Today I'm working on this thread to reveal one of my longterm holds for the coming cycle.
Regardless of whether this is a bearmarket rally or the beginning of a new bullrun, in my opinion this is THE time to scale into the most promising Altcoins that bring real value.
1/25 🧵
Some time ago I mentioned that the main narratives for the next cycle will be:
The entire DeFi sector started the bearmarket earlier compared to the overall crypto market.
For example take a look at the two leading Decentralized exchanges $UNI and $SUSHI and see how Bitcoin continued to make a second high in 2021 while DeFi topped early in 2021.