The largest dollar devaluation in the shortest period of time is likely coming in 2024/25.

Why?

Because the FED balance sheet is monetized to carry the US government interest expense since 2008 with a lag of 36 months.

#Bitcoin to new highs in this case.

Full credit @RaoulGMI The US interest expense made an all-time high on July 2021, with the FED balance sheet lagging behind 36 months this means we are likely going to see new highs there in July 2024.

#Bitcoin is the most efficient hedge against monetary inflation.
Act accordingly.

Since there almost is a debt ceiling raise deal, the US treasury will soon begin refilling its reserves (TGA).

Currently, their reserves hold 38 bln USD.

Liquidity that is added to this reserve is USD liquidity taken away from the market and I expect this to happen soon.

1/5 We have to follow the total USD liquidity to say whether this is good or bad for risk assets.

- FED Balance sheet increasing means more available liquidity
- TGA increasing means less available liquidity
- RRP increasing means less available liquidity

2/5

Contrarian statement:

‘Rates higher for longer ultimately leads to more inflation’

Why? Let’s discuss🧵 The FED is trying to destroy demand by raising rates. To some extent, it is already leading to (temporary) disinflation.

You can see it in different ways but the mainly by simply watching (core) CPI which is coming down consistently for several months on a YoY basis.

2/16

Today I'm working on this thread to reveal one of my longterm holds for the coming cycle.

Regardless of whether this is a bearmarket rally or the beginning of a new bullrun, in my opinion this is THE time to scale into the most promising Altcoins that bring real value.

1/25 🧵 Some time ago I mentioned that the main narratives for the next cycle will be:

1. Artificial Intelligence
2. Decentralized Finance
3. Metaverse / gaming

Today I want to focus on DeFi.

2/25

Last week, #Bitcoin broke above the 2022 downtrend and it has been retesting it for several days.

SPX has been pressing the downtrend for some days too.

Similarly is Gold nearing major resistance.

Either we get a massive rejection in all assetclasses, or a big squeeze.

1/4 The chart on #Bitcoin:

https://twitter.com/JJcycles/status/1617978138092535808?s=20&t=vpGvT7mLtxhrctld0ryqQQ

Alright listen,

I have zero clue what will happen in the short term, #BTC might take out 21k, 24k. It might correct here, idk.

What I do know is that there are MASSIVE catalysts incoming that will give this uptrend legs.

For starters, macro falling wedge breakout soon: Also, Gold is legit ready to break All Time Highs.

This is yet another catalyst to continue this melt up like behaviour.

#Gold

While Crypto Twitter is doubting the future of Crypto,

the BIS (bank of the central banks) is releasing another publication on regulation in crypto exposure for central banks.

Goal: implementation by 2025

16 Dec 2022 they released the document.

Small summary ....🧵 Contents of the document:

Bonds, bond yields and yield curves.

What is this about?

Also, why is it important for crypto, in specific, for Bitcoin?

In the coming thread I'll try to explain what I know of this subject. Please understand, I don't have a background in tradfi.
I'm literally learning on the go.

So why not share my thoughts and see what I'm thinking of in a correct way and what I'm looking at in a wrong way. But most importantly,

why not try and help people with it in the process.

1/4

I haven't seen this many bullish things coming together for a very, very long time.

A small thread.

#Bitcoin $ALTS 2/4

#Bitcoin bounced from the 4H 200 EMA and seems to be doing what it has been doing for quite some months now.

1/6

Below you can see the BTC price vs total exchange reserves.

A thread about this relation. 2/6

First lets focus on what happend in 2016/2017.

You can see how exchange reserves topped out and started decreasing. It was decreasing until a point where the price of BTC started appreciating too exponential.

At this point people started taking profit on their investment.