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I’m hearing the argument from the US and Germany that #Ukraine’s #NATO membership might weaken NATO’s deterrence for the current eastern flank countries – so, I’m told, think twice if you want Ukraine in NATO.
Some thoughts on this👇
Some thoughts on this👇
Unlike some of our western allies, eastern flank countries are convinced that Ukraine’s membership will strengthen NATO, especially NATO's ability to deter the Russian threat.
The risk that NATO will end up fighting a war against Russia will be higher if Ukraine is denied NATO membership.
Disagreements over Ukraine's NATO membership remind me of another difference between eastern and western NATO members, which has shaped their views on supporting Ukraine:
Western allies have seen nuclear escalation as the biggest threat, and have therefore imposed limits on their support to Ukraine - only to be gradually lifted, with no consequent escalation from the Russian side, while
Eastern allies have felt most threated by Russia's invasion and occupation reaching them, and have therefore given maximum support to Ukraine.
To conclude: perhaps it is worth listening to Russia’s neighbours when it comes to deterring the Russian threat.
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