A simplified explanation of SARS-CoV-2 even @hiltzikm can understand, since it is definitely not @elonmusk level rocket science.
1. A Zoonosis is a 3 'body' event: an animal, a microbe (hereafter we'll just say virus), and a human. Study each element to understand the origin.
2. A laboratory-acquired infection a/k/a lab leak, is a singularity: 1 animal, 1 pure virus, 1 human.
3. A natural spillover has diversity: a diversity of animals that are infected, viruses that are cousins of each other, and many humans.
4. A natural spillover has two stages: the first stage is when an animal virus tries to infect a human for the first time. Usually not very successful, asymptomatic infections, since it is coming from an animal host and is not adapted for humans. But it still leaves an immunological record. Then stage two, it is good enough when it infects humans to be able to support human-to-human transmission. An epidemic is now possible.
5. SARS-CoV-2 has all of the hallmarks of a singularity.
6. No animal has ever been found infected with the ancestral virus anywhere in the world. 40,000 tested. In SARS1 and MERS, 90%+ of animals near the first human infections had the virus. While the Wuhan seafood market clearly had animals that could be infected with SARS2, none of them were infected. The environmental specimens which contained SARS2 also contained human genetic material consistent with a human infection. The fact these susceptible animals were there where the virus was circulating but DID not get infected is actually good evidence the market was a human-to-human super spreader event.
7. The virus sequences in natural infections are cousins of each other, since they have been infecting the animal hosts for months or even years. This is called posterior diversity and both SARS1 and MERS had a year or more of posterior diversity as evidence of having been in the animal host.
SARS2 has NO posterior diversity. Every one of the billion human infections can trace its sequence to a single virus, just like a vaccine with respect to sequence purity.
8. Finally, a natural spillover can be detected in stored blood specimens after an antibody test exists for the infection. SARS1 antibodies were found in 20% of market workers and 2-3% of the general population near where it broke out. In >36,000 blood samples from Wuhan, not a single seroconversion as this is called. No evidence of ever having been in humans in the past.
9. Now was it a virus from nature that leaked or an engineered virus? Two facts support engineered.
10. Human-to-human infection was perfected on day 1. Yet there is no evidence in the blood of Wuhan citizens of how it learned to be so good at human cell infection. We know this can be accomplished by serial passage in human cells or mice that have genetically modified lungs to simulate humans.
11. The most important genetic feature that increased infectivity was the furin cleavage site, coded, in part, by a 6 letter code, CGG-CGG. When you examine the genetic diversity of the ancestry of SARS2, the subgenus sarbecovirus, that split from the other betacoronaviruses about 1100 AD, there has never been a furin cleavage site in any related virus in that entire time. There has also never been the use of that same 6 letters to code for an arginine dimer in that entire time either. But the CGG-CGG can be found used routinely in lab engineering.
So two rarities on top of each other: a protein feature never seen, coded by an RNA sequence whose name has never been spoken a/k/a used.
A definite Lord Voldemort moment.
12. Scientists, including from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, wrote a grant proposal before 2019 to actually do steps 10 and 11 above.
This is like looking at the Google search history of a suspected murderer and finding searches for how to hide a murder.
So that's it!
If any of this is confusing or you don't understand it, please drop your comment below.
But if you feel like using foul language @hiltzikm resist the urge:
some people still believe you are a journalist.
1. A Zoonosis is a 3 'body' event: an animal, a microbe (hereafter we'll just say virus), and a human. Study each element to understand the origin.
2. A laboratory-acquired infection a/k/a lab leak, is a singularity: 1 animal, 1 pure virus, 1 human.
3. A natural spillover has diversity: a diversity of animals that are infected, viruses that are cousins of each other, and many humans.
4. A natural spillover has two stages: the first stage is when an animal virus tries to infect a human for the first time. Usually not very successful, asymptomatic infections, since it is coming from an animal host and is not adapted for humans. But it still leaves an immunological record. Then stage two, it is good enough when it infects humans to be able to support human-to-human transmission. An epidemic is now possible.
5. SARS-CoV-2 has all of the hallmarks of a singularity.
6. No animal has ever been found infected with the ancestral virus anywhere in the world. 40,000 tested. In SARS1 and MERS, 90%+ of animals near the first human infections had the virus. While the Wuhan seafood market clearly had animals that could be infected with SARS2, none of them were infected. The environmental specimens which contained SARS2 also contained human genetic material consistent with a human infection. The fact these susceptible animals were there where the virus was circulating but DID not get infected is actually good evidence the market was a human-to-human super spreader event.
7. The virus sequences in natural infections are cousins of each other, since they have been infecting the animal hosts for months or even years. This is called posterior diversity and both SARS1 and MERS had a year or more of posterior diversity as evidence of having been in the animal host.
SARS2 has NO posterior diversity. Every one of the billion human infections can trace its sequence to a single virus, just like a vaccine with respect to sequence purity.
8. Finally, a natural spillover can be detected in stored blood specimens after an antibody test exists for the infection. SARS1 antibodies were found in 20% of market workers and 2-3% of the general population near where it broke out. In >36,000 blood samples from Wuhan, not a single seroconversion as this is called. No evidence of ever having been in humans in the past.
9. Now was it a virus from nature that leaked or an engineered virus? Two facts support engineered.
10. Human-to-human infection was perfected on day 1. Yet there is no evidence in the blood of Wuhan citizens of how it learned to be so good at human cell infection. We know this can be accomplished by serial passage in human cells or mice that have genetically modified lungs to simulate humans.
11. The most important genetic feature that increased infectivity was the furin cleavage site, coded, in part, by a 6 letter code, CGG-CGG. When you examine the genetic diversity of the ancestry of SARS2, the subgenus sarbecovirus, that split from the other betacoronaviruses about 1100 AD, there has never been a furin cleavage site in any related virus in that entire time. There has also never been the use of that same 6 letters to code for an arginine dimer in that entire time either. But the CGG-CGG can be found used routinely in lab engineering.
So two rarities on top of each other: a protein feature never seen, coded by an RNA sequence whose name has never been spoken a/k/a used.
A definite Lord Voldemort moment.
12. Scientists, including from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, wrote a grant proposal before 2019 to actually do steps 10 and 11 above.
This is like looking at the Google search history of a suspected murderer and finding searches for how to hide a murder.
So that's it!
If any of this is confusing or you don't understand it, please drop your comment below.
But if you feel like using foul language @hiltzikm resist the urge:
some people still believe you are a journalist.
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