Thread by @Tendar

Putin is the biggest loser of the last 10 years and here is my list of reasons why. Let me elaborate:

1.) 2013/2014 Putin tried to install Janukovic as a puppet dictator in Ukraine, similar to Lukashenko in Belarus. His scheme fell apart and Janukovic was fleeing shortly later.

Putin failed.

2.) 2014 Putin tried to take the Donbas and to expel the Ukrainian army by using Russian troops disguised as rebels. The Ukrainian army came back, destroyed most of those elements and established a contact line.

Putin failed.

3.) During the Minsk 1/2 talks, Putin tried to carve the eastern regions out from the Ukrainian state. Ukrainians resisted that trap.

Putin failed.

4.) Putin tried to prevent Ukraine from receiving Western weapons such as Javelins before the full scale war. Ukraine successfully acquired the missiles which later on were crucial to stop the initial Russian advance.

Putin failed

5.) When open war broke out in February 2022, Russians troops tried to take Kyiv, Kharkiv and other major and regional cities of Ukraine, but aside from Kherson, every advance ended in disaster.

Putin failed.

6.) When the initial operations of the open war fell apart, Putin ordered the take over of the Donbas within 3 months. Almost 2 years after this order, the Donbas is still largely held by Ukrainian troops with marginal changes since then.

Putin failed.

7.) When Putin ordered the take over of Odesa by blockading the western Black Sea, Ukrainians not only resisted but also sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship, Moskva, and cleared occupied oversea objects such as Snake Island as well as some gas rigs from all Russian presence.

Putin failed.

8.) When Putin realized that advances against areas such as Kharkiv and Mykolaiv cannot be made, he ordered that crucial cities under Russian control such as Kherson to be held. Russian forces were pummeled in Kharkiv region and Kherson City and both major cities as well as their surrounding areas were fully liberated.

Putin failed.

9.) Putin tried everything from preventing new states to join NATO. Finland, a country which was during the Cold War a neutral country, has joint the alliance. Sweden is right behind that. Another country with a 300-year legacy of neutrality.

Putin failed.

10.) Putin tried to knock out Ukraine’s electricity grid and bomb Ukraine into submission. Ukraine successfully resisted and electricity was restored.

Putin failed.

11.) Putin tried to isolate Ukraine and the Ukrainian leadership from the rest of the world and at the same himself irreplaceable. The exact opposite happened. Putin holed himself up ever since February 2022 in Russia, barely leaving his country, not even his bunker and using actors to mimic closeness to his own people while President Zelenskyy visits international summit after summit and never shies away to even visit troops at the frontline.

Putin failed.

12.) Putin tried to blockade the Odesa port and force Ukraine to accept harsh terms. Ukraine refused and destroyed large portions of Russian air defense in Crimea, started a sea drone campaign and forced considerable parts of the Black Sea Fleet back to Russia while in the process destroying several ships and their shipyards in Crimea. Grain transports have resumed even without a grain deal.

Putin failed.

13.) Ukraine was a divided country up to 2014. Putin even repeatedly denied Ukrainian identity and tried to destroy the state altogether. After the events around Maidan and especially after the full scale war in 2022, Ukraine’s identity has become not only strengthened in an unprecedented way, from west to east of the country, but has become the very symbol of freedom and independence worldwide.

Putin failed.

Summary:

I could go on and on, but the picture is clear. Putin’s story in Ukraine is a story of failures and disasters. Not even one strategic goal Russia has achieved. Russia in return has been more isolated and weakened, not seen since 1917. Most of Russia’s stockpiles have been burnt down and it would take at least 6-10 years for Russia just to get back to where it was in 2022, both in absolute and relative strength. In fact, most of what Moscow tries now is to claim constantly that resistance is futile. But the objective truth is that Ukraine resisted Russia ever since Maidan and achieved marvelous successes with less what it has today.

Putin failed in every major attempt to defeat the Ukrainian people even when Russia was relatively strong (compared to Ukraine) and Ukraine on the brink. People outside social media ask me from time to time why I’m always optimistic regarding Ukraine and then I tell them some of the points I mentioned above, and then return the rhetorical question:

How could I not be optimistic?