Official and unofficial US-Iran back channel diplomacy since the Damascus strike on April 1 helped to prevent this crisis from spiraling out of control.
Consistent messaging across multiple channels clarified each side’s thinking, spelling out intentions and redlines. 1/
Consistent messaging across multiple channels clarified each side’s thinking, spelling out intentions and redlines. 1/
Early on the US made clear that it was not involved in the strike. Iran informed the US that retaliatory measures were inevitable, relaying the nature and scope of the response over time. 2/
While urging restraint, a clear redline for the US was no targeting of US forces or facilities. For Iran, a redline was no direct US involvement in any response by Israel. Biden telling Netanyahu the US will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran is notable. 3/
Both sides communicated they are not seeking a direct conflict or a wider regional war -- a consistent message since Oct 7. Both continue to stress reducing tensions while signaling an interest in resuming de-escalation efforts initiated after the Tower 22 incident in Jordan. 4/
There are some parallels to Iran’s response to the killing of Soleimani. A catastrophic escalation has now been avoided twice -- at least for now in the case of this latest episode. We might not be so lucky next time. 5/5
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