Official and unofficial US-Iran back channel diplomacy since the Damascus strike on April 1 helped to prevent this crisis from spiraling out of control.

Consistent messaging across multiple channels clarified each side’s thinking, spelling out intentions and redlines. 1/ Early on the US made clear that it was not involved in the strike. Iran informed the US that retaliatory measures were inevitable, relaying the nature and scope of the response over time. 2/

1/ I've been asked how the North Koreans might be viewing the Suleimani assassination and what are the potential impacts on negotiations with the US.

Here are some thoughts. 2/ The killing of Suleimani might make Pyongyang think twice about crossing a red line w/ Trump (i.e. breaking the moratorium on testing) - perhaps it was meant to have such an impact. But this event won’t compel the North Koreans to return to the negotiating table anytime soon.

Thread: Some thoughts on Kim Jong Un’s Party Plenum remarks.

Kim appears to be adjusting course on the “everything for the economy” strategic direction he unveiled in early 2018, which ushered in a new policy of engagement with the US. Citing "the double-dealing behavior of the brigandish US" (yes, I had to google “brigandish” like I had to with “dotard”), Kim seems to be returning to a version of the “Byungjin” line, which places a parallel emphasis on the nuclear program and the economy.

North Korea's Choe Son Hui’s briefing today (reported by @EricTalmadge from Pyongyang) served several purposes.

apnews.com/5e747986f9204b… Kim Jong Un returned to Pyongyang empty-handed and in a perceived weaker position. Choe reverses that script and places Kim, not Trump, in the driver’s seat for determining whether the talks will continue.

The #Iran "plan B strategy" outlined by Pompeo today appears to be an attempt to take the “maximum pressure” approach used against #NorthKorea and apply it to Tehran. There are a number of problems with this thinking, but two big ones stand out. 1/ facebook.com/heritagefounda… First, the Trump admin believes sanctions & military threats brought #NorthKorea back to negotiations. Both were factors in Pyongyang’s decision making, but they were not decisive on their own. The advances in the DPRK’s nuclear & missile programs were the decisive factors. 2/

By placing the US in violation of the #IranDeal, Trump is undermining negotiations w/ North Korea before they even begin. With this move, he sends the message that even if you fulfill commitments & don't cheat, you still can't rely on the US to live up to its end of an agreement. Trump should point to the #IranDeal’s intrusive inspections & extensive access by the IAEA as a model for any agreement w/ North Korea. These unprecedented verification provisions are innovations to emulate. Instead, he has dealt a significant blow to nuclear verification.