Post

More from @vtchakarova

Velina Tchakarova

Feb 22, 2023

As the first anniversary of Russia's war against Ukraine approaches, I am eager to present a detailed thread 🧵exploring key geopolitical assessments and takeaways. Join me in this critical reflection on the war and its implications for Europe and the world. #Geopolitics 👇

Ukraine faces the difficult choice between war and complete subjugation. Each successful military counteroffensive improves the chance of regaining lost territories and achieving full territorial integrity and sovereignty, as recognized by the international community since 1991.

However, for Russia, the choices were limited to a short war that failed in the first phase, & a war of attrition, which is the current reality. To adapt to the new situation, Russia has resorted to mass mobilization of reservists & air bombing critical infrastructure in Ukraine.

Read 40 tweets

Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

Oct 30, 2022

Ukraine will be able to restore its borders from 1991, when Ukraine gained its independence from Russia, by next year. And this will be a good opportunity to finish the war according to the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
Thread 🧵 with key takeaways from his interview👇

The theoretical potential usage of nuclear weapons by Russia vs Ukraine is possible. Nobody is observing any preparations for a nuclear strike at Ukraine right now. Ukraine has never produced dirty bomb, had never planned, it's not planning & it's not going to plan such thing./1

Russia is using the narrative on the dirty bomb because it wants to force Ukraine into peace talks and wants to threaten the rest of the world so they would apply pressure to Ukraine to make a seat at the table of negotiations with Russia./2

Read 16 tweets

Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

Oct 13, 2022

US National Security Strategy is out. "PRC presents America’s most consequential geopolitical
challenge. Although the Indo-Pacific is where its outcomes will be most acutely shaped, there are
significant global dimensions to this challenge." #strategy whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

"Russia poses an immediate and ongoing threat to
the regional security order in Europe and it is a source of disruption and instability globally but it lacks the across the spectrum capabilities of the PRC." p. 11

"The PRC and Russia are increasingly aligned with each other but the challenges they pose are, in important ways, distinct. We will prioritize maintaining an enduring competitive edge over the PRC while constraining a still profoundly dangerous Russia." p. 23 #DragonBear

Read 7 tweets

Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

Sep 25, 2022

It's time for a big thread 🧵 about the global triple crisis in fuel, food and fertilizers.
When it started, how it continues, and what lies ahead amid Russia's war on Ukraine in Europe and the growing Sino-American bifurcation of the global system. #realpolitik #geoeconomics

@yaneerbaryam

Food comes first.
@yaneerbaryam is the complex systems scientist who predicted the Arab Spring by indicating in his research in early 2011 that widespread violence would occur if skyrocketing global food prices (surging Food Price Index) were not reduced. vice.com/en/article/43y…

US policies on ethanol which means a huge amount of US corn is used to power cars rather than food & commodity market deregulation in late 90s were major cause of skyrocketing food prices. The peaks in the Food Price Index were the triggers of the food riots and the Arab Spring.

Read 68 tweets

Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

Sep 15, 2022

Against the backdrop of China-Russia meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin, what are the real motives and geopolitical interests of the two leaders and their countries to enter a modus vivendi of systemic coordination?
My thread 🧵on the #DragonBear from #realpolitik perspective.

First and foremost, it's about a matter of survival in a highly volatile global system. Russia's political, economic, and financial survival will depend on China amid the country's worst isolation by the West and following the military failures on the battle fields in Ukraine.

The international order is in a transitional phase in which two centres of power are emerging—the US and China. In this context, China needs to avoid any scenarios of domestic instability following the pandemic and at the same time face global system bifurcation.

Read 21 tweets

Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

Sep 7, 2022

Putin claimed that, if Turkey is excluded as an intermediary, almost all grain exported from Ukraine is sent not to developing & poorest countries, but to EU countries. Only 2 out of 87 ships were loaded w/ 60,000t of food out of 2 million tons were transported under UN WFP. 1/

As of 4 September, the total tonnage of grain and other foodstuffs exported from the three Ukrainian ports has been 2,076,280 metric tons. A total of 187 voyages (100 inbound and 87 outbound) have been enabled so far. 2/

What Putin didn't tell is that out of 77 ships, 155,240t #wheat went to Kenya, Egypt, Sudan, & Somalia.
82,100t grain went to India.
126,234t to Iran.
138,720t to Korea.
156,840t to China.
456,508t to Türkiye.
"Almost all" is not even half of it - 842,040t went to the EU. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

Velina Tchakarova

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @vtchakarova

Velina Tchakarova

Velina Tchakarova

Velina Tchakarova

Velina Tchakarova

Velina Tchakarova

Velina Tchakarova

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!