Thread by @Tendar

After watching the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting in whole, I’m feeling prepared to comment on it in a proper way.

Long thread incoming:

(1/7)

While the discussion was weirdly enough quite long for a press conference, it was rather civil. It was Vance‘s interjection which didn’t fit at all to the overall conversation and came almost out of the blue, crashing the situation for no good reason, especially with his weird „you are not thankful enough“ BS. The peak was when President Zelenskyy calmly asked him about the problems in Ukraine, which Vance basically responded with that he watched it on TV. This was the final dead giveaway of his manufactured outrage. He was easily outsmarted by President Zelenskyy, got louder and angrier, and at this point only repeated himself, until Trump moved in and completed that disaster.
(2/7)

For those saying that President Zelenskyy just should have been silent, I disagree with for a simple reason. Ukraine did this in the past more than once. This was about the vital question of security guarantees. This key component as seen in Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 (and btw. even in the Astana agreement in reference to Syria) was missing in all previous failed attempts, and directly contributed in the lack of achieving even a stable ceasefire, let alone peace. This is not a minor detail or technicality. It is the key feature between lasting ceasefire or not. Russia only responds to force and no deal will ever be sufficient in deterring Russia. The pile of failed deals with Russia is only exceeded by the piles of bodies being victim of them. Only force and credible deterrent will ensure meta-stable conditions. You cannot blank it out or postpone it. (3/7)

The consequences of the yesterday’s disaster are immeasurable for both, Ukraine but also USA. While many justifiably ask what might happen to Ukraine, I would ask the same question to everyone else, including the USA and other previous allies. They maybe not have the urgency as Ukraine does, but the question resonates even louder when projecting this appeasement episode to the future. Because, what many fail to see is that Ukraine never ever had a real choice in that matter, thanks to the shortsightedness of all Western governments since 2014. There is no room for concessions on that matter, not even by the use of extortion, since it would only codify occupation and surrender. Their „choice“ is therefore rather simple. The backlash for the USA and others, however, will come, no matter how big your oceans are. (4/7)

Trump probably knew he won’t get anything from Putin and without need moved directly against Ukraine in order to achieve a quick solution, no matter how hollow it might be. His frustration, however, will exceed far more when he would cut Ukraine off and see that there won’t be a change in stance from Ukraine. He and many others haven’t grasped that Ukrainians would always prefer to fight even with diminished defense capabilities rather than surrendering to Russia and handing over their freedom and lives. If this would have been an option in the first place, they would have surrendered back in February 2022, and Russia is today in a far, far worse situation than 3 years ago. (5/7)

The media presence at the press conference was not very helpful, and maybe the worst mistake of all, whether intentional or not. Even without any traps laid out, escalation was only bound to happen. President Zelenskyy going on Foxnews afterwards and clarifying his stance was a good decision. This interview was excellent. He made clear that he is ready for the deal when the security guarantees are provided, while also admitting that the spat in the Oval Office was not good for both sides. While he refrained from apologizing and made clear that he considers the USA and Europe as friends, especially among the ordinary people. (6/7)

Overall, the whole situation once again emphasizes that Europe has to do more and I’m not only talking about financial matters. The core issue is as mentioned earlier security guarantees. This can only be achieved with a robust intervention force. European armies have to move into Ukraine and secure the territory. It will give Ukrainians not only the cover for defending themselves, but also give an unprecedented morale boost. It will underline that Ukraine is part of Europe and that we stand together no matter what. It is after all the most important lesson we have received the last days, but also the last 3 years. It is time to act accordingly. This is our responsibility and legacy. (7/7)