Here’s my $TSLA outlook and how I am positioning for the rest of 2025 and 2026:
Summary: $TSLA should rally towards $400 up to $480 in late 2025, then we potentially enter a new re-accumulation phase until mid 2026, due to soft Q1 and Q2 as new affordable models ramp.
Full analysis 🧵
Summary: $TSLA should rally towards $400 up to $480 in late 2025, then we potentially enter a new re-accumulation phase until mid 2026, due to soft Q1 and Q2 as new affordable models ramp.
Full analysis 🧵
$400 to $480 in late 2025 likely.
A dovish Powell at Jackson Hole, September shareholder proxies, annual shareholder meeting, 2018 compensation plan progressing, new compensation with multi trillion dollar market cap milestones with AI focus, and a strong Q3 2025 are bullish catalysts for August to November.
But these are not enough for $TSLA to breakout of the 5 year consolidation imo.
$TSLA will not breakout of the 5 year consolidation until Tesla grows earnings, which I expect to occur from mid 2026+.
A dovish Powell at Jackson Hole, September shareholder proxies, annual shareholder meeting, 2018 compensation plan progressing, new compensation with multi trillion dollar market cap milestones with AI focus, and a strong Q3 2025 are bullish catalysts for August to November.
But these are not enough for $TSLA to breakout of the 5 year consolidation imo.
$TSLA will not breakout of the 5 year consolidation until Tesla grows earnings, which I expect to occur from mid 2026+.
The bigger the rally into Q3 2025 deliveries, the higher the risk of a pullback / consolidation period.
As @ChrisDungeon posted, Wall Street wants to front run a strong Q3, which I agree. There are a lot of bullish catalysts between now to Q3 production and delivery numbers are posted in early October.
Given this scenario, the more $TSLA rallies into the Q3 numbers, the more likely they will take profit.
As @ChrisDungeon posted, Wall Street wants to front run a strong Q3, which I agree. There are a lot of bullish catalysts between now to Q3 production and delivery numbers are posted in early October.
Given this scenario, the more $TSLA rallies into the Q3 numbers, the more likely they will take profit.
Next, the launch of the new affordable models will be exciting, but it will take time to ramp, which could lead to a soft Q4 2025 to Q2 2026.
This would be a great time for Wall Street to consolidate shares and start a new re-accumulation phase as Tesla ramps the new models, expands Robotaxi, energy, and launches Optimus.
This would be a great time for Wall Street to consolidate shares and start a new re-accumulation phase as Tesla ramps the new models, expands Robotaxi, energy, and launches Optimus.
What about the shareholder meeting and vote for Musk’s new AI focused multi trillion dollar market cap milestones?
That’s a bullish catalyst and could trigger a buy the rumor sell the news event.
While it’s very bullish long term (huge boost in confidence for investors to have Musk dedicated and focused), I think a slow Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 could weigh on shares, preventing breakout attempts above $500 to complete the 5 year consolidation.
That’s a bullish catalyst and could trigger a buy the rumor sell the news event.
While it’s very bullish long term (huge boost in confidence for investors to have Musk dedicated and focused), I think a slow Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 could weigh on shares, preventing breakout attempts above $500 to complete the 5 year consolidation.
This is why I continue to say we have from now to mid 2026 to accumulate $TSLA before the real breakout happens.
Once Tesla reports earnings growth and a clear path forward on the new affordable models, Robotaxi, and even Optimus, Wall Street will give the “green light” and you will see volume explode to the upside.
This will likely be a repeat of the 2019 Model Y ramp where Tesla significantly scaled their production and grew earnings, causing $TSLA to go parabolic.
Once Tesla reports earnings growth and a clear path forward on the new affordable models, Robotaxi, and even Optimus, Wall Street will give the “green light” and you will see volume explode to the upside.
This will likely be a repeat of the 2019 Model Y ramp where Tesla significantly scaled their production and grew earnings, causing $TSLA to go parabolic.
Positioning:
We are firmly holding all of our shares acquired from 2014 to now. We also hold LEAPs expiring in 2026/2027 for leverage.
If $TSLA rallies hard into the Q3 numbers, we will take profit on our LEAPs and either roll to new LEAPs further out or acquire more $TSLA depending on market conditions and valuation.
If $TSLA also rallies exceptionally hard (towards $480 to $500) post shareholder meeting / compensation package vote, that could be an area to take profit on LEAPs.
Remember, there is risk of a soft Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, so we have to be proactive with risk management on options.
We will accumulate additional shares of $TSLA if we see weakness post Q3 deliveries and especially post share holder meeting / compensation package vote.
We are firmly holding all of our shares acquired from 2014 to now. We also hold LEAPs expiring in 2026/2027 for leverage.
If $TSLA rallies hard into the Q3 numbers, we will take profit on our LEAPs and either roll to new LEAPs further out or acquire more $TSLA depending on market conditions and valuation.
If $TSLA also rallies exceptionally hard (towards $480 to $500) post shareholder meeting / compensation package vote, that could be an area to take profit on LEAPs.
Remember, there is risk of a soft Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, so we have to be proactive with risk management on options.
We will accumulate additional shares of $TSLA if we see weakness post Q3 deliveries and especially post share holder meeting / compensation package vote.
Our goal remains clear: our family office is aiming to accumulate as many shares of $TSLA as possible before #Tesla grows earnings again, causing shares to breakout of the 5 year consolidation.
We have been $TSLA investors since 2014, and yet we continue to buy shares around a $1T market cap.
This is because we strongly believe AI and real world AI has asymmetric upside potential for Tesla, and it’s currently not priced into shares.
The more Tesla progress with Robotaxi and Optimus, the more this window of opportunity to buy $TSLA at undervalued levels (long term) closes.
This is the trade of a life time, just like $AAPL, $NVDA, and other companies who changed the world.
We have been $TSLA investors since 2014, and yet we continue to buy shares around a $1T market cap.
This is because we strongly believe AI and real world AI has asymmetric upside potential for Tesla, and it’s currently not priced into shares.
The more Tesla progress with Robotaxi and Optimus, the more this window of opportunity to buy $TSLA at undervalued levels (long term) closes.
This is the trade of a life time, just like $AAPL, $NVDA, and other companies who changed the world.
I expect #Tesla to become a multi deca trillion dollar company in the future, but it’s important to be realistic with expectations and understand market narratives, sentiment, company execution, and how Wall Street operates.
I think being a long term Tesla bull is great and long term Tesla investors will do well.
The key is not allow Wall Street to scare you and take your shares.
Instead, focus on ways to increase your total position over time.
I think being a long term Tesla bull is great and long term Tesla investors will do well.
The key is not allow Wall Street to scare you and take your shares.
Instead, focus on ways to increase your total position over time.
This is currently my outlook and most realistic view on Tesla.
Maybe I’m wrong and Tesla grows earnings sooner, or maybe the new models take much longer to ramp.
It’s important to be ready for any scenario and position accordingly.
Hope this thread helps and I would love to hear your thoughts on where $TSLA is headed in late 2025 to 2026.
Maybe I’m wrong and Tesla grows earnings sooner, or maybe the new models take much longer to ramp.
It’s important to be ready for any scenario and position accordingly.
Hope this thread helps and I would love to hear your thoughts on where $TSLA is headed in late 2025 to 2026.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
