Here’s my $TSLA Playbook for Q3/Q4 2025:

I will cover major $TSLA related or market moving catalysts, how I think it could play out, and how I am positioning.

Taking a realistic approach on this thread 🧵 Summary:

We expect $TSLA to rally into the highly anticipated Q3 deliveries, followed by Wall Street taking profit, causing shares to sell off briefly. HT: @ChrisDungeon

After the sell off, we expect the market to get excited for Q3 2025 earnings, Oct rate cuts, and the annual shareholder meeting. This should start another rally higher, potentially towards $480.

$TSLA will most likely rally into the shareholder meeting and sell the news, then consolidate or slowly grind higher for the rest of 2025, but find resistance around $500.

$TSLA will likely enter a re-accumulation phase in Q1/Q2 2026 as the risk of soft quarters is high due to new models ramping.

Once Tesla grows earnings and or proves Robotaxi can scale (meaningful fleet size with less or no safety monitors), that’s when $TSLA breaks out of the 5 year+ consolidation and heads toward $600+.

Here’s an explanation of “market logic” and how it applies to $TSLA and the market:

Sometimes stocks move in an unexpected direction, especially on the day of a highly anticipated event.

Here’s some examples 🧵 The classic “buy the rumor” and “sell the news”.

This is where investors buy up shares ahead of major event that’s expected to be bullish for the company.

Since shares are rallying into the event, the market is “pricing in” the good news. This usually leads to the market selling the news slightly before or on the day of the event.

Here’s my $TSLA outlook and how I am positioning for the rest of 2025 and 2026:

Summary: $TSLA should rally towards $400 up to $480 in late 2025, then we potentially enter a new re-accumulation phase until mid 2026, due to soft Q1 and Q2 as new affordable models ramp.

Full analysis 🧵 $400 to $480 in late 2025 likely.

A dovish Powell at Jackson Hole, September shareholder proxies, annual shareholder meeting, 2018 compensation plan progressing, new compensation with multi trillion dollar market cap milestones with AI focus, and a strong Q3 2025 are bullish catalysts for August to November.

But these are not enough for $TSLA to breakout of the 5 year consolidation imo.

$TSLA will not breakout of the 5 year consolidation until Tesla grows earnings, which I expect to occur from mid 2026+.

I am #bullish on #BTC because the overall trend in fundamentals and Onchain remain firmly bullish.

There are points of #bull market invalidation for Onchain and technicals. It will require LTHs, large miners, and older coins to start a trend of selling to invalidate the bull... Thesis. #BTC will have to close below the 21 week, 21 week EMA, 200 day, and 41.3k, to invalidate technical structure and trend.

If we get a stock market crash and the Onchain and technicals reach invalidation points, then the bull market will be finished.

Important to focus on the 1 to 3 month, 3 to 6 month, and 6 to 12 month #BTC cohorts for the next few months. As these groups age, their cost basis will start pushing into the 30k to 40k accumulation zones. 6 to 12 month cohort is #HODLing strong. Good to see 1 to 3 month cohort starting to increase as the buyers added between 30k to 48k. 3 to 6 month is slowly aging into the 30k to 40k, still capturing 50k to 64.8k areas. Important to see this group hold steady in the next few months.

#BTC #bulls have a much stronger thesis than the #BTC #bears. Bulls have solid data driven analysis confirming trends in real time. Bears are using technical charts that ignore Onchain conditions with little to no acknowledgement of what’s happening on the network.

THREAD TIME: I would like to make it clear, I acknowledge the #BTC #bear case, and it’s possible, but the current #bullish trending Onchain data, fundamental strength, and improving technicals make the bear case weak and less likely to occur.

#BTC #bears can draw all the technical fractals they want. But one trend remains: LTHs are HODLing, Miners in aggregate continue to net accumulate, LTHs remain in profit, and cohorts older than 12 months have not sold this dip. These cohorts all need to sell massive amounts of #BTC and start a trend of selling Onchain in order for BTC to start a bear market.

As of now, the trend shows continuing accumulation and HODLing.

The next 2 to 3 weeks for #BTC are going to be the most critical in determining bull market continuation. Here I explain the exact technical and Onchain confirmations I would like to see for bull market continuation.

Thread
👇👇👇 The first big step for #BTC is making a strong weekly close above the 21 week and 200 day MA. This will flash a very bullish technical buy signal, potentially causing a wave of capital to enter the market.

Here is PART 2 of my #BTC Price Target Series. This is my #BULL CASE price target for this #bullmarket. My targets are time based and condition based, while blending multiple forms of analysis. All opinions are my own, I am not factoring in other people’s price targets.

Thread Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. With that said, let’s jump in.

As promised, here is PART 1 of my }#BTC price target thread. This thread is for my BASE CASE price target for #BTC on this #bull market. It is a time based, condition based target, which blends multiple forms of analysis. Think of it as a moving target.

Thread:
👇👇👇 Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. I am keeping my proprietary methods private, as I have spent years researching and refining my analysis. Thank you for understanding. With that said, let’s jump in.

Quick update on my thoughts on the third largest #BTC whale wallet. The lack of activity further suggests the recent selling is more likely to do with breaking even or realizing small gains on blocks of #BTC acquired in the upper 30s to low 40s. This 🐳 lightly accumulated 753 #BTC starting at 50k on May 15th, at the start of the huge pullback. Additional purchases were made at 44.7k, 44.1k, with large buys going all the way down to 29.6k.

Here’s 3 charts showing near term relative performance of #BTC to the SPX, Gold, and the Dollar. #BTC is showing signs of strength when comparing recent performance.

Thread
👇👇👇 During the multi month #BTC consolidation, the SPX continue higher while #BTC underperformed. There was a large divergence forming between the SPX and #BTC. BTC staged an impressive breakout and has been significantly outperforming the SPX.

Weekly update #BTC
Long term technicals and Onchain remain bullish. The next 3 to 5 weeks will be critical in determining direction for BTC. It is very important for BTC to close back above the 21 week for bullish continuation and to avoid a bearish crossover on my 21/40 rule👇 This weeks price action formed the Higher Low at 32.7k, with less volume, a positive signal indicating further supply exhaustion.

Near term we need to see #BTC push above and stay above 35.5k and 36.6k to help form the next higher high.

1/ Here is a more detailed breakdown of the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. #BTC has been giving early bullish signals on Supply/Demand, Buying Test Requirements and Effort/Result principles.

@100trillionUSD
@APompliano
Time for a thread
👇👇👇 2/ Here is the current chart of #BTC with each Phase marked. Current price action suggests #BTC just formed the Spring and Test in Phase C and is attempting to forming a higher high and higher low for validation.