Thread by @DanBTC916

Here’s an explanation of “market logic” and how it applies to $TSLA and the market:

Sometimes stocks move in an unexpected direction, especially on the day of a highly anticipated event.

Here’s some examples 🧵

The classic “buy the rumor” and “sell the news”.

This is where investors buy up shares ahead of major event that’s expected to be bullish for the company.

Since shares are rallying into the event, the market is “pricing in” the good news. This usually leads to the market selling the news slightly before or on the day of the event.

For example, $TSLA rallied from the low $200s to $367 heading into the Robotaxi launch. This was the market pricing in the excitement of the launch.

Post launch, the market sold the news, causing $TSLA to drop double digits to $288.77.

Another example is the market anticipating a bearish event. In this scenario, the market would sell off heading into the event pricing in the bad news.

So on the day of the bearish event, we usually see a rally because the bad news has already been priced.

I should specify, if the bad news being reported is in line with expectations and already priced in, then the market tends to rally.

For example, if the market is expecting Powell to disappoint at his speech on Friday, and the market aggressively sells off this entire week, that would technically “price in” the bad news from Powell.

So let’s say on Friday, Powell gives a speech and delivers remarks inline with expectations, then the market would won’t really sell off further.

We would most likely see a neutral to positive reaction.

Now let’s say, the market rallies all week into Friday, and Powell disappoints and comes off more hawkish than expected, the market will likely sharply sell off.

Markets tend to set expectations ahead of time, price it in, so by the time the event or catalyst occurs, the market is ready to move on to the next narrative or catalyst.

This is what people mean by “pricing in” things.

Once you understand this concept, it really changes how you see price action and why stocks move a certain way on big events.

There are plenty of #Tesla catalysts for the rest of 2025, so I’ll make sure to share what I think the market is pricing in ahead of highly anticipated events for Tesla.