Here’s my $TSLA Playbook for Q3/Q4 2025:
I will cover major $TSLA related or market moving catalysts, how I think it could play out, and how I am positioning.
Taking a realistic approach on this thread 🧵
I will cover major $TSLA related or market moving catalysts, how I think it could play out, and how I am positioning.
Taking a realistic approach on this thread 🧵
Summary:
We expect $TSLA to rally into the highly anticipated Q3 deliveries, followed by Wall Street taking profit, causing shares to sell off briefly. HT: @ChrisDungeon
After the sell off, we expect the market to get excited for Q3 2025 earnings, Oct rate cuts, and the annual shareholder meeting. This should start another rally higher, potentially towards $480.
$TSLA will most likely rally into the shareholder meeting and sell the news, then consolidate or slowly grind higher for the rest of 2025, but find resistance around $500.
$TSLA will likely enter a re-accumulation phase in Q1/Q2 2026 as the risk of soft quarters is high due to new models ramping.
Once Tesla grows earnings and or proves Robotaxi can scale (meaningful fleet size with less or no safety monitors), that’s when $TSLA breaks out of the 5 year+ consolidation and heads toward $600+.
We expect $TSLA to rally into the highly anticipated Q3 deliveries, followed by Wall Street taking profit, causing shares to sell off briefly. HT: @ChrisDungeon
After the sell off, we expect the market to get excited for Q3 2025 earnings, Oct rate cuts, and the annual shareholder meeting. This should start another rally higher, potentially towards $480.
$TSLA will most likely rally into the shareholder meeting and sell the news, then consolidate or slowly grind higher for the rest of 2025, but find resistance around $500.
$TSLA will likely enter a re-accumulation phase in Q1/Q2 2026 as the risk of soft quarters is high due to new models ramping.
Once Tesla grows earnings and or proves Robotaxi can scale (meaningful fleet size with less or no safety monitors), that’s when $TSLA breaks out of the 5 year+ consolidation and heads toward $600+.
Detailed Breakdown by Month
September 2025
Expecting $TSLA to rally from mid September driven by Sep rate cut, expectations for a strong Q3, Wyckoff Accumulation Phase E Mark Up, and especially if the Tesla Board unveils the proxy materials for the new compensation plan. This will likely unveil multi trillion dollar market cap and AI milestones for Musk to achieve.
The larger the rally heading into the Q3 numbers (released in early October), the more likely Wall Street will take profit (near term).
September 2025
Expecting $TSLA to rally from mid September driven by Sep rate cut, expectations for a strong Q3, Wyckoff Accumulation Phase E Mark Up, and especially if the Tesla Board unveils the proxy materials for the new compensation plan. This will likely unveil multi trillion dollar market cap and AI milestones for Musk to achieve.
The larger the rally heading into the Q3 numbers (released in early October), the more likely Wall Street will take profit (near term).
In this scenario, we will take profits in some of our LEAPs of $TSLA while holding all shares if we see a significant rally into the Q3 delivery numbers.
At this point, the $7,500 EV tax credit will expire, the new affordable Model should be launching, so the attention will shift from strong Q3 deliveries to “Tesla needs to ramp the new models quickly”.
As exciting as the new models sound, a big rally into the launch sets the bar high and likely can lead to a sell the news event. I have been around every Tesla product launch since 2014, $TSLA sold off on nearly every launch.
At this point, the $7,500 EV tax credit will expire, the new affordable Model should be launching, so the attention will shift from strong Q3 deliveries to “Tesla needs to ramp the new models quickly”.
As exciting as the new models sound, a big rally into the launch sets the bar high and likely can lead to a sell the news event. I have been around every Tesla product launch since 2014, $TSLA sold off on nearly every launch.
$TSLA will likely sell off briefly as the reality of ramping the new model sinks in. Then on 10/15, we have the Hearing Date for Tesla’s Delaware case.
It could take weeks or even months for a ruling, so I don’t expect $TSLA to move a lot unless we get a surprise announcement such as the court overturning the ruling and awarding Musk’s 2018 comp plan.
It could take weeks or even months for a ruling, so I don’t expect $TSLA to move a lot unless we get a surprise announcement such as the court overturning the ruling and awarding Musk’s 2018 comp plan.
We plan on adding LEAPs and additional shares of $TSLA if we see a sell off post Q3 numbers.
October 2025
October will be an action packed month, as we have the new models ramping, favorable seasonality, Q3 2025 earnings, and the FOMC Rate Decision.
October is seasonally a bullish month for stocks, so as long as economic indicators on inflation remain steady, the economy doesn’t enter a deep recession, and Fed speakers give dovish commentary, this should favor upside for $TSLA.
Tesla is estimated to report Q3 2025 earnings on 10/15. Guidance is what will determine the move as the new models will be ramping. Expecting a lot of questions on Robotaxi and what to expect at the shareholder meeting.
If Tesla reveals promising data and metrics on Robotaxi, shares will definitely rally. If not, attention will likely focus on the new model ramping.
October will be an action packed month, as we have the new models ramping, favorable seasonality, Q3 2025 earnings, and the FOMC Rate Decision.
October is seasonally a bullish month for stocks, so as long as economic indicators on inflation remain steady, the economy doesn’t enter a deep recession, and Fed speakers give dovish commentary, this should favor upside for $TSLA.
Tesla is estimated to report Q3 2025 earnings on 10/15. Guidance is what will determine the move as the new models will be ramping. Expecting a lot of questions on Robotaxi and what to expect at the shareholder meeting.
If Tesla reveals promising data and metrics on Robotaxi, shares will definitely rally. If not, attention will likely focus on the new model ramping.
The FOMC Rate Decision is on 10/29, with current data strongly suggesting the Fed to continue cutting rates.
This would be very bullish for the market, pushing $TSLA higher.
This would be very bullish for the market, pushing $TSLA higher.
November/December 2025
At some point in October, I would expect the market to start getting excited for the most important Tesla event in years: the Annual Shareholder Meeting.
Favorable seasonality, an October Fed rate cut and excitement for the shareholder meeting means $TSLA should rally in mid to late October heading into the shareholder meeting.
At some point in October, I would expect the market to start getting excited for the most important Tesla event in years: the Annual Shareholder Meeting.
Favorable seasonality, an October Fed rate cut and excitement for the shareholder meeting means $TSLA should rally in mid to late October heading into the shareholder meeting.
Referring to “market logic”, the larger the rally heading into the shareholder meeting on 11/6, the more likely the market can sell the news.
The shareholder meeting will be very different from previous meetings in terms of sentiment as investors will be looking forward to Musk’s comments on the compensation plan, with Musk potentially unveiling plenty of new information on the companies future, timelines, Robotaxi, AI goals, energy, and overall big picture topics.
The shareholder meeting will be very different from previous meetings in terms of sentiment as investors will be looking forward to Musk’s comments on the compensation plan, with Musk potentially unveiling plenty of new information on the companies future, timelines, Robotaxi, AI goals, energy, and overall big picture topics.
To be clear, no matter how incredible the shareholder meeting is, the larger $TSLA rallies into the meeting, we will most likely see a sell the news event.
If $TSLA rallies significantly into the shareholder meeting, we will be proactive and take profit on a large portion of our LEAPs, sell covered calls, and hold all our shares.
Remember, I’m saying this as a Tesla bull, who expects $TSLA to become a multi trillion and multi deca trillion dollar company next decade.
If #Tesla somehow awakens hundreds of thousands of Robotaxis around the US, then $TSLA will rally, but that’s less likely to occur in early November.
If $TSLA rallies significantly into the shareholder meeting, we will be proactive and take profit on a large portion of our LEAPs, sell covered calls, and hold all our shares.
Remember, I’m saying this as a Tesla bull, who expects $TSLA to become a multi trillion and multi deca trillion dollar company next decade.
If #Tesla somehow awakens hundreds of thousands of Robotaxis around the US, then $TSLA will rally, but that’s less likely to occur in early November.
The next catalyst after the shareholder meeting is the FOMC Rate Decision on 12/10. If inflation remains steady, then we could we another 25bps rate cut, which would be bullish for $TSLA.
Given all the catalysts discussed, I think if things play out well, I can see $TSLA reaching $480, but I find it difficult for shares to break $500 without growing earnings.
The rate cuts, shareholder meeting, new compensation plan are very bullish, but I don’t think it’s enough for $TSLA to make a sustainable break above $500+ in late 2025, as a soft Q1/Q2 2026 and lack of earnings growth can weigh on shares.
Given all the catalysts discussed, I think if things play out well, I can see $TSLA reaching $480, but I find it difficult for shares to break $500 without growing earnings.
The rate cuts, shareholder meeting, new compensation plan are very bullish, but I don’t think it’s enough for $TSLA to make a sustainable break above $500+ in late 2025, as a soft Q1/Q2 2026 and lack of earnings growth can weigh on shares.
Re-Accumulation in Q1/Q2 2026 Possible
This is why I have been posting about $TSLA entering a potential re-accumulation phase in Q1/Q2 2026, as the first half of 2026 has a high probability of Tesla reporting soft quarters as the new model or models ramp.
This is why we will be proactive and take profits on our LEAPs if $TSLA significantly rallies into the shareholder meeting in late Oct to early November.
This is why I have been posting about $TSLA entering a potential re-accumulation phase in Q1/Q2 2026, as the first half of 2026 has a high probability of Tesla reporting soft quarters as the new model or models ramp.
This is why we will be proactive and take profits on our LEAPs if $TSLA significantly rallies into the shareholder meeting in late Oct to early November.
So that’s my most realistic expectation on how $TSLA could trade based on these catalysts into late 2025 and into early 2026.
Keep in mind, there are many ways this can play out. I could easily be wrong. What matters more is making sure you are appropriately positioned to handle all possible scenarios and have a plan.
There’s many external events or risks such as geopolitical and tariffs that can add to volatility in $TSLA.
The inner bull in me hopes for $600 in late 2025, but I think that’s less likely and we will have to wait until late 2026+.
Regardless, we remain very bullish on $TSLA into late 2025 as the technicals, macro, and #Tesla catalysts are beautifully lined up for a move to $400+.
Keep in mind, there are many ways this can play out. I could easily be wrong. What matters more is making sure you are appropriately positioned to handle all possible scenarios and have a plan.
There’s many external events or risks such as geopolitical and tariffs that can add to volatility in $TSLA.
The inner bull in me hopes for $600 in late 2025, but I think that’s less likely and we will have to wait until late 2026+.
Regardless, we remain very bullish on $TSLA into late 2025 as the technicals, macro, and #Tesla catalysts are beautifully lined up for a move to $400+.
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