Andrew Lover Profile picture
Assistant Professor, Epidemiology @UMassSPHHS Infectious disease epi & surveillance • Global/public health (all tweets & views my own) https://t.co/Y7DyXNbjPn
Jun 30, 2022 12 tweets 9 min read
▶️ Extensive discussions about potential protection from #monkeypox from pre-1980 smallpox (vaccinia) vaccinations.

▶️ What do we actually know, and
▶️ how well do we know it?

a thread.
1/n Four main issues:

A. How long did vaccines protect against smallpox?
B. How often was/is 𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙖𝙘𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 recommended?
C. How common were smallpox infections after 𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙖𝙘𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 ?
D. How well does smallpox vax protect against #monkeypox?

2/n
May 29, 2022 11 tweets 6 min read
▶️ How 𝙢𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 the current #monkeypox situation progress in non-endemic areas?

A thread,

1/n
▶️ There are 3 likely #monkeypox scenarios IMHO (from most to least likely)
A. Semi-rapid mitigation and elimination.
B. Low-level endemicity.
C. Major expansion, mortality and a concurrent pandemic.

Why this range, and what are the 🃏?
(fig from pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28351976/)
2/n
May 23, 2022 15 tweets 6 min read
▶️ Things the scientific community may have largely forgotten about regarding #monkeypox.

A thread,
1/n
▶️ In 1988 DA Henderson and colleagues at WHO published the smallpox eradication "redbook" (1473 pages, 3.1 kg!).

𝙒𝙝𝙮?? Because they were concerned their hard-won knowledge would evaporate.

▶️ And guess what?
▶️ There's a whole chapter on #monkeypox !
2/n
Dec 28, 2020 12 tweets 7 min read
▶️▶️ Great to see @rockefellerfdn taking the lead in some ambitious thinking around how we proactively address our pandemic response.

A few additional thoughts... (in no particular order)

▶️ 1/n ▶️ Massive-capacity testing centers.

24-hr turnaround goal essentially 𝙧𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙨 courier delivery daily from testing sites.

4-hour drive seems maximal (logistics) so...
W Coast alone would require 5-6 sites?

(& Broad had automation and skilled staff in spades).

2/n
Jul 19, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read
Mass media: reinfection with SARS-CoV-2.
Largely dismissed- no peer review so 'just ' anecdata....

▶️ However, "strange" epi might have very important messages for us: 🚨

▶️ Guinea worm- Chad
▶️ Polio- Hispaniola
▶️ "Strange" malarias- Malaysia/Brazil

🔽 A thread #COVID19 1/n https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs- In 2014, reports of "peculiar" Guinea Worm infections in dogs in one river basin in Chad.

▶️ Initial explanation: unusual pop of dogs in isolated areas feeding on fish; risk to humans was "sporadic and incidental."
🚨 Reality: many areas in Chad; plus baboons in Ethiopia. 2/n
Jul 11, 2020 9 tweets 5 min read
Short thread on why "quick and easy" fixes are not going to get the US out of this pandemic quagmire.

▶️ A deathray system to zap malaria mosquitoes had a splashy TED talk and a flurry of press coverage- in 2010.

🦟🦟🦟

#Covid_19 #COVIDー19
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
1/n
Big grand ideas, an amazing prototype, and a high profile demo!

and then.... crickets.

Or actually,🦟 🦟 🦟 🦟 🦟 buzzing.

2/n
Mar 6, 2020 8 tweets 4 min read
Simple practical guidance on steps you can take
▶️▶️ right now
▶️▶️ to prepare yourself, your family and within your community
▶️▶️ in the event of widespread #COVID19 transmission.

Thread 1/n Image Thread 2/n Image