In light of #COVID19 #vaccine scarcity and spreading mutants, we analyzed whether stretching #mRNA vaccines by delaying the 2nd dose might be worthwhile. Short answer: mostly yes. Potentially saving thousands of lives by switching strategies. arxiv.org/abs/2102.13600 Currently, two doses are given out per person; one administered directly, the second withheld for 3 weeks. 2nd dose cannot help anybody while stored. Alternative: administering the other dose to a 2nd person instead. UK currently doing this.

while this Medium post "#Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now" is going viral please bear in mind that it was not written by an expert, so pls stop RTing. The message is correct: social distancing works and should be applied asap, but the way it's written is questionable.
#COVID19 I don't have time to go much into detail because I'm working on this currently, but one major flaw of this post is that it assumes test results come in way later than they actually do. So the author estimates that there are way more unknown infecteds than there probably are.

In our new paper we show why lab-confirmed case numbers of the #Coronavirus #COVID19 do not grow exponentially: arxiv.org/abs/2002.07572

Answer: Effective containment policies isolate the healthy population well enough for case numbers to follow an algebraic scaling law. 1/9 classically, uncontained epidemic outbreaks can be modeled by means of the SIR model: individuals are either (S)usceptible, (I)nfectious, or (R)emoved from the process.

"S" enter the "I" compartment with rate alpha, and "I" are transferred to "R" with rate beta

2/9