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Charlie Robertson Profile picture
Charlie Robertson
@CharlieTTEcon
Head of macro-strategy at FIM Partners, but this is personal account; TED talk on Africa, author Fastest Billion and The Time Travelling Economist @TTTEconomist
Mar 6 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I'm less worried about oil going to $100-150/bbl than I am about fuel shortages

Countries whose "strategic reserves" barely exist, at 3-4 weeks or less, are low income and vulnerable

A big SPR release by OECD countries won't easily resolve this (wrong place/type) Image One country that's acutely aware of the problem of fuel shortages is Sri Lanka, which suffered its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948, back in 2022

Guess who was queuing up for oil on Monday?

But they don't need to, reserves are 35 days

reuters.com/business/energ…
Feb 3 • 14 tweets • 8 min read
I've been waiting for this for months .. How Africa Works by Joe Studwell.

His book How Asia Works is my favourite book on Asian economic development, and influenced/provoked me when I wrote the Time Travelling Economist (and perhaps the Fastest Billion too)

@TTTEconomist @TTTEconomist Not sure I buy the population density thesis (but haven't read the book yet).

@TTTEconomist does explain why similar population density countries (Estonia/DRC or Vietnam/Pakistan or Germany/Nigeria) have very different wealth levels Image
May 10, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
How quickly can markets reconcile themselves to a potential ANC/EFF coalition.. was one debate among foreign and SA investors yesterday in London .. and the answer seemed to be, within 3-6 months For ANC politicians, hoping to rule SA forever, the major threat to its rule probably doesn’t come from the DA which seems unable to get about 20-30% of the vote

The bigger threat for the ANC is losing its own voters, eg youth to EFF, eg KZN to MK, middle class to small parties
Apr 25, 2023 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Why are the markets getting so negative on Kenya right now ? A fair few Frontier countries are suffering but there are specific reasons for Kenya's troubles ... thread This piece from 19th April points out that government tax revenues need to double in April to June to meet annual targets (this probably won't happen)

Debt headache as Kenya seeks new Eurobond theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/k… via @The_EastAfrican
May 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
98 page report on China’s infrastructure strategy in Africa ..bit.ly/3KD1GtB...h/t @JKynge …I do get sucked in by maps I’ve not seen such detail in a while on Chinese investment in infrastructure in Africa
May 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Sri Lanka's Eurobond holders may be offered the chance to get repaid in rupees instead of US dollars - an option Russia included in its post-2014 Eurobonds, but would still represent formal default in SL. CB governor Weerasinghe says option might be useful for domestic holders Sri Lanka's CB governor adds that IMF EFF deal may take three months and formal debt restructuring would take another three months after that (the latter is probably at the best-case scenario end of the spectrum)
Mar 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Offshore market for Egypt now showing a big devaluation from EGP15.7/$ to EGP/17.5$ - as CBE hikes rates 100bp (deposit rate to 10.25%). If this becomes the new currency rate it removes nearly all the overvaluation of recent years Egypt has a high dependence on Russia/Ukraine food imports, tourism from both was expected to support EGP this year, and foreigners have taken $bns from local market in past few weeks
Feb 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
China central bank research suggesting a Shanghai Plan for Africa and Asia debtors .. like the US Brady Plan for Latin America and other debts in the 1980s.
Debt to China could be restructured into RMB bonds that are internationally traded and would help internationalise RMB.. As ever - more qns than answers at this stage - ie,
1) how much debt might be written off in the restructuring stage?
2) would these Shanghai bonds actually be traded, or just held to maturity by Chinese banks ?
Also there's the question of renminbi denomination..
Oct 16, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
There are helpful lessons for any developing country from UK economic history and Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through by @DuncanWeldon is one of the most engaging, easy reads on this I’ve seen. This point about older marriages equals a UK (lower) fertility advantage Also interesting that Britain’s first major railway was profitable from the beginning. Infrastructure financed by the private sector. A useful reminder to govts engaging in railway building now
Jan 18, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Why are food prices soaring? #Wheat prices are up 37% from their low and #corn prices are up 61%. Both are at the highest levels in years ..
Thread This matters for emerging markets (EM) more than developed markets, because lower incomes in EM means a higher proportion of spending goes on food. There's enough famous Marie Antoinette "let them eat cake" examples to justify concern about unrest when food prices go up in EM
Apr 15, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Macron's call for the private sector to accept losses on their lending to Africa might be a short-sighted mistake. There is undoubtedly a moral (and selfish) case for public sector support by the G7/G20 to support less wealthy nations in this global health outbreak ... But the private sector will already be paying for that via future higher taxation in their home countries. What Macron is suggesting those few private sector lenders who have lent to the poorest countries, should pay twice, now by taking a loss and in the future via domestic tax
Mar 10, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Some in the markets are looking at Korea which, like China before it, seems to be controlling the #coronavirus spread. Don't. East Asians are not seeing the active case infection rate double every 3 days but Europe (even Italy still) and the US are. See next tweet East Asia has had school shut downs for weeks which has helped. Europe/US have not which means they are following the Italy playbook. The active #coronavirus case number per 100k in Switzerland is 6 days behind Italy. All schools were closed in Italy 5 days ago ...meanwhile ..
Jul 18, 2019 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
There is a long list of reasons why the Eco - the west African single currency promised by EcoWas - is a bad idea in the short to medium-term #thread Firstly, it is conceptually wrong to assume that a larger currency area will make west Africa richer. If this was right, Nigerians would be the richest in EcoWas, but instead the smallest member, Cape Verde, is the richest. This implies there should be more currencies, not less
Feb 12, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
#Nigeria’s GDP slowly picking up since the oil price crash of 2014-16 - up 1.9% in 2018 (0.8% the year before). And last quarter of 2018 was best in years at 2.4% - but not fast enough to deal with Unemployment If we look at Nigeria's economy and compare it to other oil exporters - it's better than some (Eq Guinea in Africa, Venezuela in Latam), and worse than others. But none have done great since the oil price fall began in 2014
Sep 27, 2018 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Nigeria's biggest unions are on strike calling for a big rise in the minimum wage, from around $50 (NGN18k) to $140-180 a month (NGN50-65k). This could make Nigerians more expensive to employ than the Vietnamese ($145) or Russians ($163) based on rough figures we compiled below There is a case to be made for a higher minimum wage. The NLC points out the currency has halved in value, and petrol prices are up 80% since the last wage change. Ivory Coast and Kenya have min wages around roughly $100.