New Substack:

Ethereum is the Better Bet

The Winning Cryptocurrency is Likely to be the One That is Most Used; It’s Not Enough to be “The Hardest Money”

defisurfer808.substack.com/p/ethereum-is-… #Bitcoin vs. @ethereum is likely the most important question to ask for new capital hoping to outperform the cryptocurrency asset class.

Ethereum has many traits that suggest it is the better bet to lead the space by adoption and thus market cap in the long-term.

Contextualizing the @arbitrum Ecosystem's Opportunity.

Putting some data behind what early Arbitrum users are playing for. With Arbitrum Nitro coming August 31st (mark your calendars) and the likely return of Arbitrum Odyssey shortly thereafter, I'm sharing some relevant data to help contextualize where Arbitrum is in its growth trajectory and what its ecosystem could become.

Reasons for optimism that nearly every crypto participant is overlooking:

🧵👇 TLDR:

(1) We're past the worst M2 headwinds; Crypto is a coiled spring.

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(2) There are catalysts to get capital off the sidelines, including:
* Nasdaq confirming bull market;
* Many idiosyncratic events (e.g. the merge); and
* Inflation coming down (most uncertain).

Yesterday we shared how @GMX_IO's Synthetic PvP AMM is a game-changer for derivatives trading.

Now it's time to dig further into the pros / cons of $GMX's novel synths model and speculate on how much incremental demand it might drive.

Hint: Moar Volume, Moar Fees for $GMX

🧵👇 For an introduction to GMX's upcoming synthetic derivative product, start here:

https://twitter.com/808_Investor/status/1546953140028772354?s=20&t=qliChSsqGRvLLgE-UpkUeA

Alfa from @GMX_IO: “We will be reviewing the synthetics model this week for edge cases, aiming to start on the contracts next week."

With $GMX releasing a HUGE new product soon™️, @Riley_gmi and I did a deep dive into:

Synths, PvP AMMs, & Why They are *BETTER* Than CEXes

🧵👇 First: What are Synthetic Assets?

Synthetic assets (synths) are crypto-assets that derive value from another asset (the underlying asset) on- or off-chain.

They are essentially digital abstractions of derivatives.

And they're coming to GMX 💪💪💪

Last week I wrote a thread about how the coins that pumped the hardest last cycle were driven by fundamentals.

One protocol to keep an eye on is @arbitrum gem @GMX_IO ( $gmx).

This beast protocol is annualizing $100M of fees on $169M circulating mkt cap (1.8x!) (FDV $291M).

https://twitter.com/808_Investor/status/1532562260928761856

Despite trading activity faring relatively well in the downturn (fees down only 19% from April peak run-rate), $gmx is down 50%... baby thrown out w/ the bath water?

It trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 6x ( $gmx stakers receive 30% of fees across @arbitrum and @avalancheavax).

If you want a good laugh check out this "Why I'm Bearish on @ethereum" piece by @TaschaLabs from December 2021.

Many of the core hypotheses she makes in the piece are already looking way off the mark.

I walk thru the best ones below 👇👇

$eth $luna $sol $avax

https://twitter.com/0xHamz/status/1529603645783871489

The core premise of the piece seems to be that L2s like @arbitrum and @optimismPBC will take away activity from the @ethereum L1.

"While eth is crossing this no man’s land, activity growth on eth L1 would likely be stagnant or negative."

Understanding @ethereum's Economic Model Post Merge

(aka It's All About the Fees Baby)

A thread 🧵 Building on the work of @drakefjustin, @ryanberckmans, @NorthRockLP, @0xHamz, and others, this thread attempts to provide a basic overview of $eth's economic model post merge.

There's a perception that crypto coins only pump on HYPE.

I disagree.

The coins that pumped the hardest last cycle pumped on extraordinary FUNDAMENTALS.

Consider the following (🧵):

$sol $axie $luna $ohm $spell $SOL mkt cap: $0.01B -> $70B (7,000x)
$SOL cumulative wallets: 0 -> 12M

Gonna be hard to beat May'22...

S/o to all big accts interacting w/ my tweets & helping me grow my acct: @crypto_condom @tztokchad @MadThunderdome @ethersole @EricJhonsa @CurveCap @CredibleCrypto @CFrogE1 @0xHamz @BowTiedBull @BowTiedOx @CoastalDegen @_fabknowledge_ @dylan522p S/o to everyone who interacts w/ me on a regular basis 💕

Meeting people and learning every day is what makes this app awesome and incredibly addictive tbh 😅.

The Sober Math Behind the Unsustainability of the Bitcoin Network's Economic Model.

(and Why Bitcoin Mining is a Bad Business)

A thread 🧵

#bitcoin $btc / #Ethereum $eth t.co/f6ksM2cUHl Imagine you run a utility.

But instead of enjoying growing energy consumption and income over time, like most utilities...

... Every four years your population is cut in half until it goes extinct in 2140.

If this scenario sounds familiar you might be a #bitcoin miner.

$coin stock = iffy 🫡

$coin bonds = juicy?

Let me explain. Short 🧵 COIN’s GAAP accounting is a mess.

Optically their Q1 was bad with negative $830M of operating cash flow.

However, adjusting for items that don’t impact cash to run the business, the co’s “true” burn was close to $0.

Sharing some current thoughts for folks deciding between the various token options in the @dopex_io eco.

TLDR:
- $rDPX v2 remains misunderstood (unbelievably) and is a huge near-term catalyst;
- $JONES / $PLS look relatively more interesting vs. $DPX over the next year IMO. (note all the obvious caveats apply such as it's a bad backdrop for small caps w/ the macro as I'm sure you know.)

What is @PlutusDAO_io?

Glad you asked fren. @PlutusDAO_io is a pre-token yield aggregator.

Specifically, it aims to accumulate the Vote Escrow ("ve") tokens of @dopex_io and @DAOJonesOptions.

Basically, it's aiming to be the @ConvexFinance of the Dopex ecosystem.

Let's talk about @DAOJonesOptions ( $jones ). Jones is an $8M micro cap yield, strategy, and liquidity protocol for options.

Basically it's like @iearnfinance but specifically for options strategies.

Sharing some thoughts to help put current macro in context.

TLDR: IMO
- Inflation fears likely moderate beginning in a few months;
- 2018/19 isn't a great analog for Feb 2022;
- Rising rates aren't a headwind to crypto over medium-term;
- LT still looks very good for crypto. Near-term (NT) risks:

YoY CPI comparables start to get a lot easier in April / May so headline inflation #s are likely to decelerate meaningfully in a few months.

https://twitter.com/EricJhonsa/status/1491880071916765212?s=20&t=yfkLzvmR3kWPtXM7Fyj8lw

I.e. going into summer pressure on Fed to reduce inflation may start to ease.

Fellow Ohmies and future Ohmies: Sharing a write up on Olympus DAO ($OHM). Feedback appreciated.

drive.google.com/file/d/1FpmwkG… $OHM is an aspiring crypto reserve currency / central bank. The protocol offers very high APY to OHM stakers (currently >7k %) and an opportunity for liquidity providers to buy OHM at a discount thru a process called bonding.