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Erik Townsend 🛢️ Profile picture
Erik Townsend 🛢️
@ErikSTownsend
Software entrepreneur turned Macro strategy hedge fund manager turned opinionated retired guy. Pro-nuclear activist & docuseries producer. Host of @MacroVoices.
13 subscribers
Nov 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/🧵: It started just after midnight...

15-sec bar chart. Look at the volume cluster (bottom, left) around 14:30. That's the "pit chose", busiest crude oil trading moment of the day normally.

Now look (bottom right) at the big volume spikes starting at 0:40, including the Image 2/ 1,300 contracts ($117mm) traded in <15 seconds around 02:35 (normally slowest time of day).

Someone is "buying sloppy" into thin midnight (Asian session) liquidity, trying to monkey-hammer crude above its 200DMA at 90.05.

Time & Sales chart for the midnight cluster: Image
Oct 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/🧵 Tuesday was Sloppy Selling (Market Manipulation?) day in CL futs

This Tuesday's trading on $CLZ22 shown in 30-sec intervals. This is NOT NATURAL MARKET ACTION.

The market didn't "Sell off on news". Four separate DUMPS of >2000 contracts in 30 seconds starting at 08:45, and 2/ numerous other 30-sec bars with more than 1k contracts. ALL the big volume bars are RED.

In THEORY, clustered stop-loss orders being activated simultaneously could cause one of these, but no way I buy that explanation for all of them.

Someone with SERIOUS capital to
Oct 16, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
1/🧵: Call for @MacroVoices ATOMIC ENERGY guest recommendations

This thread will lay out my editorial objectives for bringing one or more atomic energy experts on @MacroVoices to discuss the future of nuclear energy and the formative global energy crisis.

(cont'd)
#uranium @MacroVoices 2/ I am convinced that the formative global energy crisis will finally FORCE the world to grow up and recognize that nuclear energy has always been the greenest, safest, and most renewable source of energy to power the global economy.

But emotion trumps logic in politics, so
Oct 5, 2022 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
1/🧵: OPEC Eve crude oil musings

OPEC+ meets Wednesday (tomorrow), following a series of "leaks" from delegates suggesting a big production cut may be coming.

This thread contains my thoughts on possible outcomes.

#OOTT #OPEC 2/
 It's clear from several delegate comments that there is an organized effort afoot on OPEC+'s part to prime the market for a big production cut.

They started with "Maybe a cut", when that wore off they raisede to "Maybe a cut of a full MILLION barrels", then raised to 2mm bbl.
Sep 28, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/🧵
Glad you asked bc we need listener input on best guest(s) to cover this topic.

To your question of what the chances of another 2007-8 degree housing crash are in the face of rapidly increasing mortgage rates,
my absolute strongest conviction answer is that... (cont'd) 2/
 ...that I have no clue.

As I see it, the drivers for higher rates are stronger now than in 07/08, so in theory you could argue this time will be worse!

But I don't buy that argument. What REALLY went wrong in 07/08 was most of the defaulting mortgages should never have
May 7, 2022 • 40 tweets • 36 min read
1/🧵 OPEN THREAD TO @TWITTER LEADERSHIP AND @ELONMUSK:

Yesterday you suspended my account without warning because I tweeted an unredacted version of the below graphic containing my rejection of an interview invitation from @CNBC that was inappropriate to my professional focus. @Twitter @elonmusk @CNBC 2/ First off, I want to publicly apologize to the @CNBC producer whose name and e-mail address I failed to redact before tweeting that graphic.

The rule I violated by doing that is a good rule, and I was wrong. I acknowledge fault for this mistake, which was inadvertent.
Apr 15, 2022 • 24 tweets • 10 min read
1/🧵: STOP BEING STUPID, PEOPLE! @elonmusk ISN'T TRYING TO BUY TWITTER.

To be sure, @elonmusk is the most talented and accomplished con man in American history, and that's made him the richest man in the world.

But look, he's not STUPID. This is an obvious misdirection, and I'm @elonmusk 2/ astonished that anyone anywhere is foolish enough to be taking seriously the notion Elon is about to buy Twitter for upwards of $43mm.

For starters, even Elon doesn't have that much cash and would have to sell a lot more Tesla. He could raise that cash, but why?
Apr 15, 2022 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
1/🧵
I'm quite surprised by how many people seem to have misunderstood my entire point about the potential of a decentralized supranational global reserve currency.

Since Ryan was far more polite than the last guy to bring this up, I'll do a quick thread to elaborate. 2/ Let's draw an analogy to Bitcoin, since so many of you are so entranced by it.

What's so cool about bitcoin? Precisely as Ryan says here, it's the fact that the system is able to operate with no 'owner' or 'controller' who is in charge of the currency system.
Apr 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1/🧵 CHINA COVID OUTBREAK

I don't know what to make of this, but my spidey senses are tingling so I'll share a few guesses and thoughts.

cc: @chrismartenson @biancoresearch @chrismartenson @biancoresearch 2/ Seems to me there are 2 distinct possibilities here.

The first is that Dr. John Campbell and others told us Omicron is so contageous nothing can contain it, and so trying is pointless and counter-productive.

So explanation #1 is simply that it makes no sense for China to
Jan 22, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/THREAD: Weekend musings: If the stock market outright CRASHES, will it drag oil prices down with it?

TL;DR: Maybe at first there will be "crash contagion", but long-term, I say a firm NO! This thread explores why. Critical feedback welcome. 2/ We don't KNOW whether a stock market crash has begun. But for the sake of this thread I'm going to pretend a 40%+ stock market crash has already begun and will only get worse.

The question is what does that mean for the oil market?
Jan 18, 2022 • 5 tweets • 6 min read
$CL timespreads to the moon (again), indicating renewed fears of Cushing testing the lower inventory limit of its operational capacity.

HJ and JK already broke the buck-a-month barrier with the rest of the pack close behind.

Feels like Oct/Nov all over again... cc @phemsworth @phemsworth Meanwhile, KM and the rest are already above their Oct-Nov highs, with JK almost there and HJ still having a ways to go.

cc @BrynneKKelly @TradingTrotter @Rory_Johnston @chigrl
Nov 27, 2021 • 9 tweets • 8 min read
1/THREAD: Omicron--Serious problem or seriously overhyped?

My strong overall feeling has been that the sell-off in $CL_F was massively overdone thin-liquidity panic exacerbated by negative gamma forced selling of CL futs.

Kudos to @BrynneKKelly and @JavierBlas who both... @BrynneKKelly @JavierBlas 2/ ANTICIPATED what was about to happen and explained what was coming Friday EARLY MORNING (before it happened).

But the one chart that really makes me hit pause before backing the leverage truck up to Sunday's futures open is this one from an excellent @PeakProsperity article:
Jun 19, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The best part about living outside the USA is having no clue what 'Juneteenth' means and going to bed at night knowing I was never even exposed to whatever virtue signaling woke culture debate brought it about.

Canada still wins for catchiest holiday name with May Long Weekend 1/2: Good heavens. The sea of anger from people who completely misinterpret my intent is overwhelming.

My ONLY point is we already have too many federal holidays and don't need any more.

I was not present in USA when the decision was made to make Juneteenth a federal holiday.
Jun 18, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#OOTT What gives with $CL WTI Q/U spread? Blowing out like this close to expiry normally only happens on physical supply disruptrion into Cushing. I doubt this is Iran driven. WHAT'S GOING ON?

@chigrl @phemsworth @Big_Orrin @Rory_Johnston Image @chigrl @phemsworth @Big_Orrin @Rory_Johnston Just for context, it's statistically unusual for WTI timespreads to reach expiry of the front contract at greater than .50 backwardation per month UNLESS front month price is ripping higher due to a war or something in which case absolutely anything is possible.
Dec 28, 2020 • 22 tweets • 10 min read
1/THREAD: UNDERSTANDING PRICE TRANSMISSION VIA ARBITRAGE $ABXX $ABXXF

TL;DR: While I couldn't possibly be more bullish @abaxx_tech, today is NOT the day to buy the U.S. ADR $ABXX, which is trading at a ridiculous premium to the last $ABXX (Canadian) close.

WAIT FOR TOMORROW! @abaxx_tech 2/What's happening today is not specific to $ABXXF. It affects a lot of Canadian stocks with U.S. ADRs, and many of those ADRs are up a lot this morning.

They're not up because the companies got better. They're up because Canadian markets are closed. The connection isn't obvious
Dec 18, 2020 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
1/THREAD: THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF $ABXX TRADING

$ABXX began trading on the Candian @Aequitas_NEO exchange this morning. 433k shares traded in the first two hours with most early trades “pinned” within a few cents of $4.00CAD. This thread contains my analysis of the early trading. @Aequitas_NEO 2/DISCLAIMER: I’m a pro futures trader, not an equity guy, so I definitely welcome correction and critique from pro equity traders who know the mechanics of the market better than I do.
Dec 17, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1/THREAD

Abaxx Technologies @abaxx_tech starts trading tomorrow morning under symbol ABXX:CN.

Based on last trade of .34 on NML.TO, $ABXX should start trading around $4.08.

I'll be very curious to see where it closes after the first day of trading... @abaxx_tech 2/...my original thesis (described in a podcast at macrovoices.com/ErikonABXX) was that early angels taking profits should cause a very buyable dip in price right after public trading begins.

I was hoping for that outcome so I could add to my already sizable position. But...
Jun 24, 2020 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
1/ THREAD

I'm about to block 100+ people and thought I should first explain why.

I'll start by retweeting someone I do NOT intend to block. This is a good example of how grown-ups disagree respectfully. This person strongly disagrees with me, so they make cogent (cont'd) 2/...arguments expressing an opposing view. Nothing wrong with that, and I respect your right to your opinion, @HotSwapGaming.

But it literally took me 20+ minutes of sifting thru hatred and vitriol to find just ONE civilized response to cite as exemplifying respectful discourse
Apr 30, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1/THREAD: AM I MISSING SOMETHING OR IS MNUCHIN ON DRUGS?

Calling on my physical market tweeps @Big_Orrin @phemsworth for clarify...

Seems like the overnight rally in CL timespreads was driven by Mnuchin committing to "several hundred million" bbl of storage US Gov't will @Big_Orrin @phemsworth 2/ supposedly provide. I heard that like "We'll be shipping one million test kits by tomorrow" or whatever they said a few weeeks ago - utter nonsense.

But market seems to be taking it seriously. Am I missing something? SPR spare capacity is 75mm bbl and it would take a long
Apr 29, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/THREAD: FALSE INVENTORY SIGNAL #OOTT

Several weeks ago I predicted that we would soon see much smaller Cushing builds or even a Cushing or product draw. I went on to explain the market would misinterpret that signal. I think it's happening now.

Explanation follows... 2/ Everyone one has been focused on the question of "When will Cushing fill up to the brim?"

The answer is never. It is ALREADY as full as it can get. They need to reserve a few empty tanks for blending operations and for other operational reasons. So reaching working CAPACITY
Apr 28, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/THREAD: #OOTT CRUDE OIL TRADER QUIZ

Please ask yourself, "Who will buy CLM0 futures between April 28 (Thu) and May 19 (expiry).

Think hard about your answer before reading the rest of this thread!

@JavierBlas @JavierBlas 2/ If your answer involved retail investors buying thru an ETP, forget that. USO, the biggest crude ETP will be out of CLM0 by tomorrow's close. The other ETPs are following suit. ETP inflows will go to later contracts only.