This study points to a severe flaw in the global Covid-19 death count. It's impossible to track everyone who died from it. Also, there will be deaths from other illnesses which couldn't be treated properly. The measure of the true human cost of the disease will be "excess deaths"
The U.K. government saw before its eyes what was happening in Italy. It chose to do nothing. Boris Johnson orders a lockdown now, with weeks of delay. This is an astonishing failure of leadership. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
What were the U.K. chief scientists doing when the consequences of the new Coronavirus in other parts of Europe were so evident? Why were they not shouting from the rooftop? Did they give the wrong advice - or did they fail to speak truth to power and to the public?
My thoughts go to my many friends in the U.K. 🇬🇧 - a country I love and where I spent many wonderful years. You will get through this, just as us in Italy 🇮🇹 are doing. Even under a lockdown, keep calm and carry on - as you have taught so well to the rest of the world. (ENDS)
La decisione di Conte di ieri è assolutamente dirompente. Al netto delle valutazioni scientifiche, spero il governo abbia ragionato con attenzione su dettagli e attuabilità. L’ultima cosa di cui abbiamo bisogno sono filiere essenziali interrotte per ragioni burocratiche 1/3
Abbiamo deciso di rafforzare il lockdown. Ma perché non ci sono progressi su altre questioni che gli scienziati dicono essere essenziali?
- La politica dei tamponi
- Il tracing degli infetti
- L’isolamento non in famiglia dei contagiati non gravi
- La gestione degli ospedali 2/3
L’emergenza non può impedirci di fare domande. La limitata esperienza di gran parte del governo ci impone di essere scettici. Conte deve essere molto più trasparente. In questo momento non può bastare una diretta Facebook in notturna 3/3
As I scroll Twitter from my flat in Milan, I still see a lot of complacency around the world. Don't go out unless you have to. And when you do, keep some distance from others. The earlier you start, the less pressure on your healthcare system, the fewer the deaths. #COVID2019
Governments will take time to take effective measures. They will try to balance different interests, as they need to keep the economy going. They'll make mistakes. But with some simple steps you can make a real difference for yourself, your beloved ones, your country. #COVID2019
Of course, we can't cut ourselves off from the world. Some of you can't work from home. Some of you will have kids they have to take out for a walk. You will all need to buy food. But you can all reduce you social lives. Do it sooner rather than later. #COVID2019
Il MES è uno strumento essenziale per il buon funzionamento dell’euro. La questione di fondo è se l’Italia vuole continuare a far parte della moneta unica. Il mio commento per Affari e Finanza di @repubblica. #MES
Il MES supera il principio - molto caro all’ortodossia tedesca - che non ci possano essere salvataggi nella zona euro. Ed è la base del ‘whatever it takes’ della BCE che ha messo fine alla crisi dell’euro. Davvero vogliamo abolirlo? (2)
La riforma del MES introduce delle modifiche - alcune volute dall’Italia, altre da Germania e Olanda. Stare nell’eurozona richiede dei compromessi. Se non se ne vogliono, allora bisogna uscire dall’euro, con tutte le conseguenze del caso. #MES (3)
After a few weeks of negotiations Italy's new government team of the 5 Star Movement+Democrats is out. A few impressions:
Thread 👇 1/6
The 5 Star Movement outmaneuvered the Democrats in the negotiations. They keep the prime minister and the crucial job of undersecretary in the PM office (which the Democrats had wanted). 5 Star also take foreign affairs, industry, education and justice. 2/6
The Democrats can claim the finance ministry with the influential MEP Roberto Gualtieri. This is a double-edged sword, however. The finance minister has to enforce budget discipline via tax hikes and spending cuts. Gualtieri risks becoming unpopular. 3/6
Il 65% degli italiani e' favorevole ad avere un'unione economica e monetaria con l'euro, secondo l'ultimo Eurobarometro. Solo il 26% e' contrario, il 9% non sa/non risponde.
La percentuale degli italiani che ha un'immagine negativa dell'UE e' scesa di 7 punti percentuali tra l'autunno del 2018 e la primavera del 2019, secondo l'ultimo sondaggio Eurobarometro, ed e' oggi al 20%. In tutta l'UE e' diminuita di 3 punti percentuali, ed e' al 17%.
Dunque lo scontro tra il governo giallo-verde e la Commissione Europea sulla manovra - avvenuto tra l'autunno 2018 e la primavera 2019 - e' stato accompagnato da un *aumento* della fiducia per l'UE in Italia. Non credo fossero questi i piani di Salvini e Di Maio.
Once again, a private solution touted for an Italian bank in trouble falls apart. Remember JPMorgan with MPS? That did not go well either. #Carige
Other Italian banks have said they stand ready to support Carige via a voluntary deposit guarantee scheme. This smells very much of the Atlante fund, which did not work out too well since the banks it bought were ultimately liquidated.
1 - There is a lot of confusion over why Italy’s President #Mattarella chose to veto Paolo Savona as finance minister, leading to the collapse of a possible 5 Star-League government. Here’s a short thread explaining what he said last night. #Italy
2 - The main problem was Savona’s explicit support for a ‘Plan B’ to leave the euro - which he did not withdraw before receiving the nomination. This plan had to be secretive, according to a set of slides he co-authored in 2015.
3 - If you are an investor in Italian bonds and you think the finance minister may have a secret plan to leave the euro, what you do? You sell your government bonds, as you fear you will be paid back in a less valuable currency (Lira). This causes a self-fulfilling crisis.
Mattarella has just spoken. He confirmed the problem was over the appointment of the finance minister. He said he was open to a ‘political appointee’, not to someone who would sleepwalk Italy out of the euro. He concludes that arguing for ‘Ital-exit’ should be done openly. #Italy
+++ The 5 Star Movement is now reportedly considering an impeachment of Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella.
Good morning all from Rome - as you can see I have opted for the large moka pot this morning. We will all need it! Here are a few thoughts on #Italianelections2018 after an extraordinary night.
1. There are two ways to look at this #ItalianElection2018. One is the electoral outcome: a badly hung parliament. The other is the political message: an anti-establishment triumph.
2. Let's start with the electoral arithmetics. It's ugly. None of the three blocs (Centre-right, Centre-left, 5 Star Movement) will be able to secure a majority. We will need some form of grand coalition, which, in a way is what we always expected.