Ferdinando Giugliano Profile picture
I write columns on the European economy for Bloomberg (@BOpinion). Also on @Repubblica. @SSCNapoli fan. Views my own. RT≠endorsement. fgiugliano@bloomberg.net
4 May
A tale of two countries 🇮🇹 (h/t @istat_it)

Deaths in March 2020 vs March 2015-9

Northern Italy +94.9%
Southern Italy +2%

(Italy +49.4%)
Deaths in March 2020 vs March 2015-9 🇮🇹

Lombardy +186.5%
Emilia-Romagna +70.1%

Campania -1.9%
Sicily -2.7%

(h/t @istat_it)
Deaths in March 2020 vs March 2015-9 🇮🇹 (by province)

Bergamo +567.6%
Milan +92.6%
Rome -9.4%
Naples -0.9%
Palermo -9.2%

(h/t @istat_it)
Read 6 tweets
26 Mar
Italy's death toll from Covid-19 could be severely underestimated.

The town of Nembro, near Bergamo, had 158 deaths so far this year vs 35 on average in the recent past.

Only 31 deaths were attributed to Covid-19. (@corriere) corriere.it/politica/20_ma…
This study points to a severe flaw in the global Covid-19 death count. It's impossible to track everyone who died from it. Also, there will be deaths from other illnesses which couldn't be treated properly. The measure of the true human cost of the disease will be "excess deaths"
The tragic cost of #COVIDー19 in one chart.

The number of monthly deaths in Bergamo since January 2019, by age group. Note March 2020.

(Thanks to @EasyInve and @webecodibergamo, the local paper in Bergamo. They have become essential read for understanding the pandemic in Italy)
Read 4 tweets
23 Mar
The U.K. government saw before its eyes what was happening in Italy. It chose to do nothing. Boris Johnson orders a lockdown now, with weeks of delay. This is an astonishing failure of leadership. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
What were the U.K. chief scientists doing when the consequences of the new Coronavirus in other parts of Europe were so evident? Why were they not shouting from the rooftop? Did they give the wrong advice - or did they fail to speak truth to power and to the public?
My thoughts go to my many friends in the U.K. 🇬🇧 - a country I love and where I spent many wonderful years. You will get through this, just as us in Italy 🇮🇹 are doing. Even under a lockdown, keep calm and carry on - as you have taught so well to the rest of the world. (ENDS)
Read 3 tweets
22 Mar
La decisione di Conte di ieri è assolutamente dirompente. Al netto delle valutazioni scientifiche, spero il governo abbia ragionato con attenzione su dettagli e attuabilità. L’ultima cosa di cui abbiamo bisogno sono filiere essenziali interrotte per ragioni burocratiche 1/3
Abbiamo deciso di rafforzare il lockdown. Ma perché non ci sono progressi su altre questioni che gli scienziati dicono essere essenziali?
- La politica dei tamponi
- Il tracing degli infetti
- L’isolamento non in famiglia dei contagiati non gravi
- La gestione degli ospedali 2/3
L’emergenza non può impedirci di fare domande. La limitata esperienza di gran parte del governo ci impone di essere scettici. Conte deve essere molto più trasparente. In questo momento non può bastare una diretta Facebook in notturna 3/3
Read 4 tweets
9 Mar
As I scroll Twitter from my flat in Milan, I still see a lot of complacency around the world. Don't go out unless you have to. And when you do, keep some distance from others. The earlier you start, the less pressure on your healthcare system, the fewer the deaths. #COVID2019
Governments will take time to take effective measures. They will try to balance different interests, as they need to keep the economy going. They'll make mistakes. But with some simple steps you can make a real difference for yourself, your beloved ones, your country. #COVID2019
Of course, we can't cut ourselves off from the world. Some of you can't work from home. Some of you will have kids they have to take out for a walk. You will all need to buy food. But you can all reduce you social lives. Do it sooner rather than later. #COVID2019
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec 19
Il MES è uno strumento essenziale per il buon funzionamento dell’euro. La questione di fondo è se l’Italia vuole continuare a far parte della moneta unica. Il mio commento per Affari e Finanza di @repubblica. #MES
Il MES supera il principio - molto caro all’ortodossia tedesca - che non ci possano essere salvataggi nella zona euro. Ed è la base del ‘whatever it takes’ della BCE che ha messo fine alla crisi dell’euro. Davvero vogliamo abolirlo? (2)
La riforma del MES introduce delle modifiche - alcune volute dall’Italia, altre da Germania e Olanda. Stare nell’eurozona richiede dei compromessi. Se non se ne vogliono, allora bisogna uscire dall’euro, con tutte le conseguenze del caso. #MES (3)
Read 6 tweets
4 Sep 19
After a few weeks of negotiations Italy's new government team of the 5 Star Movement+Democrats is out. A few impressions:

Thread 👇 1/6
The 5 Star Movement outmaneuvered the Democrats in the negotiations. They keep the prime minister and the crucial job of undersecretary in the PM office (which the Democrats had wanted). 5 Star also take foreign affairs, industry, education and justice. 2/6
The Democrats can claim the finance ministry with the influential MEP Roberto Gualtieri. This is a double-edged sword, however. The finance minister has to enforce budget discipline via tax hikes and spending cuts. Gualtieri risks becoming unpopular. 3/6
Read 7 tweets
5 Aug 19
Il 65% degli italiani e' favorevole ad avere un'unione economica e monetaria con l'euro, secondo l'ultimo Eurobarometro. Solo il 26% e' contrario, il 9% non sa/non risponde.
La percentuale degli italiani che ha un'immagine negativa dell'UE e' scesa di 7 punti percentuali tra l'autunno del 2018 e la primavera del 2019, secondo l'ultimo sondaggio Eurobarometro, ed e' oggi al 20%. In tutta l'UE e' diminuita di 3 punti percentuali, ed e' al 17%.
Dunque lo scontro tra il governo giallo-verde e la Commissione Europea sulla manovra - avvenuto tra l'autunno 2018 e la primavera 2019 - e' stato accompagnato da un *aumento* della fiducia per l'UE in Italia. Non credo fossero questi i piani di Salvini e Di Maio.
Read 3 tweets
18 Jul 19
Luigi Di Maio has just said he wants Italy to have the EU Competition Commissioner so that he/she can help to stop infringement procedures on State aid against Italy.
Here's the link to the video (~3.00) facebook.com/LuigiDiMaio/vi…
Read 2 tweets
9 May 19
Blackrock has pulled out of a possible deal to rescue Carige. Watch out for the possible political storm in the making. (@Reuters) uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eur…
Once again, a private solution touted for an Italian bank in trouble falls apart. Remember JPMorgan with MPS? That did not go well either. #Carige
Other Italian banks have said they stand ready to support Carige via a voluntary deposit guarantee scheme. This smells very much of the Atlante fund, which did not work out too well since the banks it bought were ultimately liquidated.
Read 6 tweets
28 May 18
1 - There is a lot of confusion over why Italy’s President #Mattarella chose to veto Paolo Savona as finance minister, leading to the collapse of a possible 5 Star-League government. Here’s a short thread explaining what he said last night. #Italy
2 - The main problem was Savona’s explicit support for a ‘Plan B’ to leave the euro - which he did not withdraw before receiving the nomination. This plan had to be secretive, according to a set of slides he co-authored in 2015.
3 - If you are an investor in Italian bonds and you think the finance minister may have a secret plan to leave the euro, what you do? You sell your government bonds, as you fear you will be paid back in a less valuable currency (Lira). This causes a self-fulfilling crisis.
Read 9 tweets
27 May 18
Mattarella has just spoken. He confirmed the problem was over the appointment of the finance minister. He said he was open to a ‘political appointee’, not to someone who would sleepwalk Italy out of the euro. He concludes that arguing for ‘Ital-exit’ should be done openly. #Italy
+++ The 5 Star Movement is now reportedly considering an impeachment of Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella.
Why the appointment of Italy’s finance minister is so important. My @bopinion take from this week. google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloo…
Read 11 tweets
15 May 18
+++ A copy of the draft 5 Star/League agreement (dated yesterday) has been leaked to @HuffPostItalia - I am going to tweet the most relevant sections. Full link below. huffingtonpost.it/2018/05/15/un-…
1) Five Star and the League expect the @ecb to forgive 250 billion euros in Italian bonds bought via quantitative easing, in order to bring down Italy's debt
2) The two parties want to re-open European Treaties and to "radically reform" the stability and growth pact. The coalition would also want to reconsider Italy's contribution to the EU budget.
Read 13 tweets
5 Mar 18
Good morning all from Rome - as you can see I have opted for the large moka pot this morning. We will all need it! Here are a few thoughts on #Italianelections2018 after an extraordinary night.
1. There are two ways to look at this #ItalianElection2018. One is the electoral outcome: a badly hung parliament. The other is the political message: an anti-establishment triumph.
2. Let's start with the electoral arithmetics. It's ugly. None of the three blocs (Centre-right, Centre-left, 5 Star Movement) will be able to secure a majority. We will need some form of grand coalition, which, in a way is what we always expected.
Read 11 tweets