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matti heino Profile picture
matti heino
@Heinonmatti
Crisis preparedness 🛡️ Complex systems, behaviour change and public policy of both. Resilience🔀Antifragility. VNK/🦊. I eat my own (behavioural) medicine.
Jun 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Uusi versio: *Pahin-On-Aina-Ohi -illuusio, eli miten viimeisimmät koronatilastot voivat olla ikuisesti laskussa*

1/
#koronafi #covid19fi #koronakriisi Ilmiötä voi käyttää ehtymättömänä helpotuksen lähteenä:
1. Mene tarkastamaan viimeisimmät luvut.
2. Havainnoi, että pahin on ohi.
3. Toista ensi viikolla uudelleen, jättäen huomiotta että mennyt data muuttuu joka päivä, kun viivästyneitä lukuja lisätään siihen.

2/
Jun 9, 2022 • 22 tweets • 11 min read
Alan huolestua koronatutkijoiden tilannekuvasta, mistä olin ajatellut #WELGO-väen olevan hyvin perillä. Keskustelussa kaikki näyttivät olevan samanmielisiä siitä, että pandemian opit koskevat (ylimitoitettuja) rajoituksia.

Kukaan ei maininnut #LongCovid tai #ilmahygienia.

1/ Ehkä parhaat palat olivat muussa seminaarissa, mutta siitä striimattiin vain paneelikeskustelu, josta jäi kuva, ettei oheisessa twiitissä kuvattua tilannetta ole olemassa.

Paikalla olleet: jakakaa tilaisuuden huippukohdat!

#koronanOpetukset

2/
Apr 14, 2021 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Say you want to figure out which beliefs to target in a behaviour change campaign, and as part of the evaluation look at correlations between two self-reports, like beliefs and intentions:

A Tale of Non-linearity 🧵👇

1/ In the process of Confidence-Interval Based Estimation of Relevance (CIBER) you aim to find variables that are both a) correlated with something more "downstream" (such as behaviour or behavioural intentions), and b) changeable (not maxed out already)

2/
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Jul 10, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In case you're late to the party:

1/4 In the absence of a physical law forcing boundaries on a metric, it becomes fat-tailed, i.e. a single observation can be more important than everything that came before, combined. 2/4 There is this parameter called alpha, which quantifies the thickness of the tail, i.e. how bad the situation is compared to one where you can happily just use normal approximations and non-parametrics.

david-salazar.github.io/2020/05/19/und…
Jan 25, 2020 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Thread on silly late night musings regarding chaos and ecological momentary assessment:

I was watching these videos and playing around with data. 1/

There's this idea that the extent of chaos can indicate system failure, or destabilisation such as shown by this awesome work by @OlthofMerlijn 2/ psych-networks.com/how-to-study-e…
Jan 16, 2020 • 16 tweets • 8 min read
SHOULD WE TREAT FEVER [in children]? Thread based on a quick literature search for personal interest's sake.

I'm either missing major pieces of evidence, or the #1 Finnish authority for health information gives strange advice. /1 Some background: The aforementioned organisation, @DuodecimFi, disseminates information to doctors and the general public. Their article [terveyskirjasto.fi/terveyskirjast…] is v. positive towards fever reduction and says there are no adverse effects. /2 Image
Oct 31, 2019 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
Ok, the Russians were here, and I didn't understand a thing. Next up @trishankkarthik, who's claiming Quantum Supremacy isn't a racist thing. Let's see how this goes.

#RWRI Taking an integrative non-segregationist view, he's explaining that all computers are basically the same. #RWRI
Oct 30, 2019 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
1/3 Order from randomness: @financequant demonstrates #complexity emerging. Check out what comes from this simple algorithm iterated... #RWRI 2/3 Voila! The goddamn Sierpinski triangle! #RWRI
Jun 25, 2019 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
Me and @AleksiHalsas are doing a 5-day fast, 13 to 17 July. If you want to jump in, there's still time to try out shorter ones before liftoff!

(For an easy intro to fasting, see p. 4 onward here: ) @AleksiHalsas Day 1: Attended goddaughter's birthday party. Good times drinking black coffee in the middle of 🍰🎂🍡🥐🍪
Jun 19, 2019 • 24 tweets • 14 min read
THREAD: What is complexity? Concepts as introduced by @EcoLabs + @Ecocene / @cecanexus, with notes especially from the perspective of behavioural medicine. Full poster here: cecan.ac.uk/index.php/news… 1. Feedback

Note: There are many different terms for two types of feedback loops, e.g.
- Positive vs. negative
- Amplifying vs. stabilizing
- Reinforcing vs. balancing

Take a moment to consider how these play out in your theory of change.
May 7, 2019 • 12 tweets • 8 min read
Lemme run a thought process by you. It's supposed to be a pedagogical illustration of what we miss when averaging over individuals (or systems), instead of analysing individual time series. Related to this mini-MOOC, ergodicity, etc. Possibly stupid. > mattiheino.com/2018/10/25/nam… > There are good theoretical reasons from cybernetics/synergetics/complexity theory to assume that systems behave in a certain way prior to shifting states. First slide is @FredHasselman's (google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j…) for background. Assume this is what goes on. >