Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #complexity

Most recents (10)

Whole lot of hot takes out there around #COVID19, foresight, and the #BlackSwan concept | Dear readers, I present to you...the hottest of hot takes: #coronavirus both "is and is not" a black swan, & this is the most reasonable, rigorous, & responsible view
But first, yes...foresight actually works! And not because it can help you "predict" the future, but precisely because it can help you understand complex phenomena and, at best, spot "emerging issues." See: &
And, the folks at @CSIS struck gold:… Unfortunate use of the word "predict," which literally means "say before" & should be banished from the vocabulary of all futurists. Great stuff from @BryanAlexander here:…
Read 22 tweets
Today's Applied Complexity Symposium begins with a panel on Computation and Complex Economies, feat. Rob Axtell, Joshua Epstein, @C4COMPUTATION, Blake LeBaron, John Miller, & @MelMitchell1

(Follow this thread for live coverage all day...)

#complexsystems #economics
4 Principles of Collective #Computation:

1 Ground truth (objective reality)
2 Effective ground truth (what we agree on, whether or not it is accurate)
3 #Information can be collectively encoded in #networks
4 Outputs are a product of collective dynamics

@C4COMPUTATION right now
"I think #economics really needs to adopt a generative framework with agent-based models of cognitively plausible software people...[and] we don't choose to fear."

- SFI'S Joshua Epstein (@GeorgeMasonU) on modeling emotions at today's ACtioN symposium:
Read 44 tweets
SFI President David Krakauer introduces our annual board of trustees symposium on New #Complexity #Economics - follow this thread for live coverage of talks by @EricBeinhocker @AKStanger @ole_b_peters @JacksonmMatt @cmoncap & W. Brian Arthur today...
"I think we have to be aware that we're not just discussing financial systems. We are discussing the future of the stability of the planet."

- David Krakauer
on #Complexity #Economics
"What is the #economy? I would argue that it doesn't exist in the physical world. It is a product of our #imagination. It is made out of #ideas. It does have an effect on the physical world. But the imagined order that we have is not succeeding."

- @EricBeinhocker
Read 38 tweets
1/3 Order from randomness: @financequant demonstrates #complexity emerging. Check out what comes from this simple algorithm iterated... #RWRI
2/3 Voila! The goddamn Sierpinski triangle! #RWRI
3/3 I really suggest trying this out on your computer, to get the eery feeling of demonic possession. (@FredHasselman has R code here:…) #RWRI
Read 6 tweets
"Information theory, predictability, and the emergence of complex life"

SFI Seminar by Luis F Seoane of @IFISC_mallorca, streaming now:
"The size of the #environment in some ways captures the #complexity...longer words take longer and longer to sample. This means in smaller environments, smaller words mean more."

- Luís Seoane of @IFISC_mallorca on #information right now:

"More-complex bit guessers are going to survive in a wider variety of environments. But a more-complex guesser is going to pay a higher metabolic cost."

- Luís Seoane of @IFISC_mallorca

Streaming now:

#computation #intelligence #evolution
Read 5 tweets
"If I were to write a textbook on #complexity, it would be structured like this..."
- SFI Pres David Krakauer starts off this morning at #CSSS19 #CSSS at @IAIASantaFe

#error #adaptation #universality #coarsegrained #math #theory
"If you talk about #intelligence and #stupidity, you talk about #communication and #policy. That is the natural place to start."

"If you've ever written a Lokta-Volterra #equation, you've drawn a perpetual motion machine. There's no #dissipation."

- SFI President David Krakauer
"Why #God is a bad #theory: it's not because it's not true; it's because it uses an infinite-dimensional process to explain low-dimensional phenomena."

- SFI President David Krakauer at #CSSS19 on #Ockham's Razor & why #Darwin's animal breeding metaphor backfired on #evolution
Read 7 tweets
We create #games & #simulations at @fovlabs to improve public policy. These tools are meant to help us live with the #complexity around us. The journey to create a non-academic research space in India hasn't been easy. #payitforward (1/n)
How do you create a space that helps address the complex problems we face as a society? How do you create tools to facilitate dialogue with stakeholders? How do you build bridges? How do you grapple with diversity without paying lip-service? #payitforward (2/n)
These were just a few questions that we were interested in, what we needed was somebody to listen to us, bounce some ideas off, support us financially, and just be there for us. #payitforward (3/n)
Read 10 tweets
#Complexity Theory: One of the many non-intuitive implications of this approach is that the more complex a problem, the simpler the solution must be. Unintended consequences & butterfly effects render complicated solutions unworkable within a few steps 1/n
The conventional approach is that India is a complex country that requires complex solutions. Complexity theory implies exactly the opposite. Only simple policies, frameworks and institutions can function in India. Leave complex solutions to Singapore 2/n
Another implication of Complexity theory is the 80:20 rule (or some version of it). A 20% solution will often solve 80% of the problem. In many situations, one should leave it at that as further interventions will have unintended consequences & render the system unworkable 3/n
Read 14 tweets
1) Antifragile on health of bones: bones are part of the endocrine system, not some engineering structure.

You don't improve your bone with exercise machine.

@Mangan150 attributes the fertility crisis to correlative (Om 6), not causative (osteopenia)

2) The bone also regulates memory and mental functions via osteocalcin (Karsenty).

SPECULATION: can healthier bones for overweight pple explain the all-cause-mortality effect?

POLICY: just follow the phenomenology that healthy pplw have healthy bones and ignore mechanisms?
3) We know that osteocalcin restores muscle endurance. Muscles strength are less investigated.

Again fughedabout mechanisms, take phenomenology: @CoachRippetoe reports that only heavy weight bearing exercises you do standing up count.
Read 3 tweets
[Thread: let's talk the #ThaiCaveResue, intervention research, and #complexity]

Struck by how Musk's mini submarine - “made of rocket parts and named Wild Boar after kids’ soccer team”- is a teachable moment for intervention research in #complex settings

Let's take a look at why, using complexity theory.

Musk's rocket is indeed highly sophisticated and built through 'rocket science', yet on-site it has been deemed ill-suited for this complex rescue mission

How is this so and what can we learn from it?
First: good graphics here of what this labyrinth cave complex looks like, and what the rescue entails (or, at the very least, the *known* problems the rescue mission is likely to encounter)…
Read 17 tweets

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