1/7 🇷🇺 🛢️ Russian oil export revenues decreased by around $0.9B to $13.5B in August 2025. Lower prices drove the drop, while the shadow fleet’s crude exports surged 16.2% to 62.3%, and tanker violations rose monthly, signaling weak enforcement of sanctions.

Full report: bit.ly/3ITNtOj 2/7 Seaborne crude exports decreased 1.4% MoM in August, oil products fell 1.7%. IG P&I-insured tankers shipped just 21% of crude and 82% of products, leaving room for the shadow fleet to grow.

1/7 🪫Russia’s budget is in trouble: O&G revenues are falling, budget deficit is growing fast, spending is rising, and the economy is stalling.
How long can it last? Check the August #RussiaChartbook by @KSE_Institute: bit.ly/46ghccW 2/7 Oil exports revenues rose to $14.3 billion in July, as Russian oil prices were pushed back by $60/barrel ⛽. Oil & gas budget revenues down >30% YoY in May-July due to weak extraction taxes and lower prices.

1/9 @KSE_Institute presents “Creating Shadow-Free Zones”, which outlines the environmental threats posed by Russia’s shadow fleet. The report suggests a mechanism for enforcing proper oil spill insurance to create shadow-free zones & mitigate these risks. bit.ly/4eFxCxq 2/9 This report follows two previous studies, "Assessing the Shadow Fleet" and "The Core of Russia’s Shadow Fleet," which analyzed the shadow fleet's growth and identified ships for future sanctions.

1/4 Russia’s Bigger Shadow Fleet Helps Beat Oil Sanctions, as @Bloomberg reports, based on a recent @KSE_Institute study. Thanks to @alexlongley1 for covering this issue. bloom.bg/3yzT8DZ 2/4 Crude oil fleet: 6.05M tons in carrying capacity from 49 sanctioned tankers were offset by 74 new tankers adding 8.9M tons in H1 2024, with 1.92M tons in regular use.

1/7 The Kh-101 missile that struck Kyiv’s Okhmatdyt Hospital contained Western components, revealed by an @FT investigation by @ChristopherJM @maxseddon @xtophercook @samjoiner @digitalcampbell & Toru Tsunashima. Thanks to @FT for featuring @bilousova_o. on.ft.com/3zGMXOI 2/7 The Kh-101, one of Russia’s most advanced cruise missiles, is crucial to its airstrike campaign against Ukraine. It can contain over 50 foreign-made parts. Despite sanctions, Russia turns to advanced technologies not intended for military use.

1/7 Russia's shadow fleet is a global environmental threat and a growing rift in the sanctions regime. A new study by @KSE_Institute examines its origins, current operations and future, and suggests effective countermeasures: bit.ly/3VPbgCs
2/7 Russia’s shadow fleet, comprising 435 tankers, is designed to circumvent G7/EU oil price caps. In April 2024, 83% of Russian crude oil & 46% of petroleum products were shipped on these tankers, posing significant environmental risks due to lack of proper insurance.

1/5 Latest @KSE_Institute update on @SelfSanctions:

Only 30 companies left Russia in 2024, 7 in March, raising exits to 378. Meanwhile, 1,211 firms are on the way to leave, but 2,170 are still operating freely.

More: t.ly/H8dgA
2/5 March Exits: Notable exits include @Deezer, @densoeurope, and Teijin through liquidation, alongside @dxctechnology, @ForacoDrilling, @GrantThornton, Herpa.

1/5 March's 'Russian Oil Tracker' by KSE Institute: RU Still Relies Heavily on Shadow Fleet, Vessel Designations Need to Be Scaled Up. Oil export revenues stood at $15.7B, with a 3% drop in exports offset by higher Urals FOB prices (+$4/bbl to $66/bbl): t.ly/4MYjM
2/5 In Feb, 225 Russian shadow fleet tankers departed from ports, with 84% over 15 years old, posing environmental risks for the EU. Currently, OFAC has sanctioned 41 shadow tankers: 29 unloaded and not scheduled, 7 loaded but inactive, and 5 completing voyages.

1/7: The @KSE_Institute's study "Analysis of Foreign Business Exits from Russia" reveals a potential deal value of $25 billion from 300 company exits. Full study here: t.ly/1b9qq
2/7: Of these companies, those that have fully withdrawn had generated $82 billion in revenue, compared to $65 billion by companies still in the process of exiting.

1/7 Russia's federal budget shows a strong improvement, driven by robust revenue collection and expenditure restraint. A deficit of 1.7 trillion rubles in Jan-Sep marks 58% of the full-year planned in the 2023 budget. Full Chartbook: 2/7 Russia's oil and gas earnings surge due to rising prices and a weaker ruble. In September, federal oil and gas revenues totaled 12.3 billion. Extraction taxes hit 1.2 trillion rubles in August, a record since May 2022.

#SelfSanctions

Impact of @SelfSanctions on foreign companies’ exiting 🇷🇺 – digest KSE Institute (12.12 – 18.12)
bit.ly/3WwqTvZ

Key points below
1\6 From February 24, 144 companies completed withdrawal from 🇷🇺, 1156 companies have curtailed 🇷🇺 operations, 501 have reduced current operations and held off new investments in 🇷🇺, and 1201 companies continue to work in 🇷🇺
2\6

@KSE_Institute & @sanctionsgroup insights from Expert Conference on the Impact of Russian Sanctions
@daria_sofina @NAZK_gov Individual sanctions may be some numbers that we can refer to as the number of assets that were frozen in different jurisdictions. One of the impacts of individual sanctions, we understand that they have a really chilling effect.

@KSE_Institute & @sanctionsgroup insights from Expert Conference on the Impact of Russian #Sanctions

1. Russia is losing the #Gas battle it has launched against the West

@McFaul @CraigKennedy77 @elinaribakova @BLSchmitt @ben_moll @ben_hilgenstock @Nataliia_Shapo
1/5 Before the invasion of #Ukraine, 65% of Russia’s total gas exports by volume went to Europe, and around 90% by value, since exports to China and the CIS are at a much lower price
2/5

@KSE_Institute & @sanctionsgroup insights from Expert Conference on the Impact of Russian Sanctions
1. Russian oil exports volumes appeared to be resilent to sanctions since the invasion while revenues still exceeded 2021 average in Nov.22
@Nataliia_Shapo 2. Structure of exports changed substantially as Russia was able to redirect the oil from Europe to China, India and Turkey proposing record discounts