The election of #Trump has checkmated the Ayatollah in #Iran.

Trump may not seek overt regime change as a policy, but it may be one of the inadvertent consequences of his actions.

👇🧵 1/16 Trump’s election is the worst possible scenario for supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, and his brutal ideological paramilitary, the IRGC. Here’s why 👇2/16

The presidency Masoud Pezeshkian the so-called “reformist” runs against the pattern of “purification” Khamenei has been spearheading in the past 5 years.

So what changed Khamenei’s mind?

Quick analysis 🧵👇1/10 Let’s be clear from offset: there will be no change to key policy/ strategic direction of the regime. That’s set by Khamenei. The presidency is merely a rubber stamp & the face of the regime abroad. Pezeshkian wouldn’t have become president with consent from Khamenei & IRGC. 2/10

Iran’s regime has a track record of engineering demographic changes in Syria/Iraq. We reveal how it’s now manufacturing demographic changes in Iran via Shia migration from Afghanistan to fill the widening gap between the regime & Iran’s people 👇🧵atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransour… There’s currently 6 million Afghan migrants in Iran. Reports indicate if current trajectory of migration continues, this could increase to “20 million in next 3 years.” The regime has quickly awarded full rights to migrants (incl. Iranian IDs)—breaking from past discrimination.

Quick analysis on Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran’s regime, including:

1. Khamenei/IRGC calculus 🇮🇷
2. Israel’s retaliation 🇮🇱
3. Iranian people response 🟢⚪️🔴

🧵👇1/11 Iran’s regime knew Israel would retaliate to its unprecedented escalation—& will view yesterday as just the beginning. Knowing this, it’ll start pushing the propaganda line that it’s showing “restraint” to depict Israel as the “aggressor” and spin the narrative. 2/11

10) All signs once again indicate these chem attacks have been directly or indirectly coordinated by regime security estab. The Iranian people believe that with such attacks regime has one goal: inflict terror & punish, Iranian society to deter future mass unrest, which is likely 11) This should not be surprising. As supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared in October 2022 in response to ongoing protests: the problem of young people and teenagers on the streets can be “resolved through punishments.”

1)🚨 Let’s talk chemical poisoning attacks on schools in Iran which have specifically targeted schoolgirls. These ongoing attacks have received v little media attention, so in this 🧵 @SaeidGolkar & I take an in-depth look and analyse 👇 2) 1st report of chemical attacks was Nov 2022 in Qom & they’ve spread nationwide since. In past Iranian year which ended in March, 130 elementary & high schools targeted. Reports show +300 attacks across 139 cities/towns. Attacks resumed with April re-opening of schools

1) As the EU & UK consider listing IRGC as a terror group, the issue of Iranian conscripts has emerged as a potential barrier.

@SaeidGolkar & I outline why conscription should not be a barrier to listing the IRGC as a terrorist org 👇#IRGCterrorists foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/30/ira… 2) Opponents of designation claim listing the IRGC would punish draftees who are conscripted to IRGC and have “no choice” but to complete their compulsory service. They argue listing IRGC, which would bar IRGC members from entering Europe, would unfairly punish conscripts.

1) The UK must proscribe the IRGC as a terrorist organisation now

Our new paper makes a clear case for proscription: from exposing IRGC indoctrination material to tracking the rising threat of homegrown Islamist radicalisation in Europe 👇
#IRGCterrorists institute.global/policy/making-… 2) Correctly defining IRGC is key to proscription. It’s not a conventional state army. Rather it can most accurately be defined as
an ideological organisation. It began as an Islamist militia & has maintained its militia identity through the way it operates today. I explain👇

1) What’s happening inside #Iran should not be surprising. It’s been clear for years that the Iranian people want regime change. But like Ukraine, the West was misled by so-called "experts", who made everything about JCPOA & Trump.
 
Here's what they've not told you👇 2) State & society gap in Iran has been increasing for years. Since early 90s, Iran’s society has experienced process of secularisation/liberalisation. Today, this has reached unprecedented levels. Polling reveals 68% Iranians want secular state, only 32% identify as Shia Muslim

1)#Iran’s Foreign Ministry reporting that Raab spoke with Zarif ahead of this week’s #JCPOA talks in Vienna

Iran’s MFA reports Raab told Zarif “London will do its best to help negotiations bear fruit”.But #UK’s changing posture toward Iran should noted

Reflections on UK-JCPOA👇 2) Two weeks ago, the #UK published its Integrated Review (IR) – the biggest review of UK defence, security & foreign policy since cold war - where it outlined overarching international policy objectives until 2030.

Rising concerns about #Iran’s regime featured throughout 👇

1) This week #Macron warned Iran not to interfere in #BeirutBlast - but this may be too late

IRGC Gen Salami:

“All [#IRGC] capacities have been mobilised to help the Lebanese people…we will be them until the end of this crisis”

Thread: #BeirutBlast view from #Iran 2) Last week’s explosion in #Beirut has put significant pressure on #Iran’s activities in Lebanon, which are carried out by #Hezbollah –a Shia Islamist militia Iran’s IRGC helped create in 80s to export Islamic Revolution to #Lebanon & destroy the “Zionist regime”(#Israel)

1)The #IRGC is eyeing Iran’s presidency & Parviz Fattah is emerging as its perfect candidate

As a strong contender for 2021, Fattah has been dominating headlines

But who is Fattah? What's his ideology? What would his presidency mean for #Iran’s domestic/foreign policy?

THREAD 2)Despite avoiding limelight, Fattah’s got lots of experience:Ahmadinejad’s energy minister (1st term) + heading Khamenei’s ideological-charitable orgs:Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation (2015-19)& Mostazafan Foundation(current role).But underpinning all of this are his ties to IRGC