Why didn’t Iranians rise up during Israel’s war with the regime?🇮🇷🇮🇱

It wasn’t lack of dissent. It was control — a suppressive apparatus embedded in every layer of society.

@SaeidGolkar & I expose the regime’s vast security web silencing Iranians.

What the world missed🧵👇1/ As Israel began to control Iran’s skies, many believed this was a golden moment for an anti-regime uprising. But as the war ended, policymakers & dissidents questioned why Iranians didn’t rise up. The regime’s spun the silence as popular support—but that’s far from the truth. 2/

🚨 Iran’s regime is entering its North Korea moment 🇮🇷

After war with Israel, Iran’s regime is turning inward with brutal crackdowns on civilians & purges—and outward with renewed plans for global terror. All while the West looks the other way. Here’s what’s unfolding: 👇

1/ 🧵 Just hours after Israel’s precision strikes on 13 June, fearing a simultaneous domestic uprising, a close confident of the supreme leader who led Friday prayers in Tehran warned about the “enemy’s fifth column” and vowed to confront them.

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How can Israel maintain the hearts and minds of the Iranian people? 🇮🇱 💚🤍❤️

Based on our discussions with people in Iran since the war began, @SaeidGolkar and I propose a strategy to counter the regime’s propaganda and psychological warfare.

🧵1/ Many Iranians were optimistic and supportive of Israel’s targeted strikes on nuclear sites, scientists and senior IRGC commanders on Friday. This was hardly surprising: the same IRGC has been responsible for detaining and murdering thousands of Iranians civilians. 2/

Today the U.S. and Islamic Republic of Iran meet for a second round of nuclear talks. 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 ☢️

A lot has been said of Trump’s goals. But what is Ayatollah Khamenei’s game plan?

Quick analysis thread 🧵👇 Khamenei’s entire strategy is aimed at running down the clock to October, when the “snapback mechanism” to reimpose UN sanctions on Tehran expires as part of a clause in the original 2015 Obama Iran nuclear deal. 2/

Today is Quds Day—the most antisemitic rally in the world.

It was created by the Ayatollah to signify the Islamist march towards destroying the world’s only Jewish state. This rally takes place across the West

The Iranian regime’s war on Jews has been ignored for too long 👇🧵
I am not scaremongering, exaggerating or omitting nuances, although this is what the woke Left, isolationist Right and much of the legacy media would like you to believe. Quite the opposite.

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Today @UANI releases its "First 100 Day Plan on Iran for the Trump Administration."
 
The plan has been shared with the Trump Transition Team.
 
🧵👇 Recognizing Tehran as a major source of international terrorism and regional destabilization, UANI’s plan lays out a whole-of-government strategy built around four key instruments of American national power: Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME).

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The IRGC’s internal publication reveals it fears anti-regime unrest in Iran — a domino effect from Assad’s collapse.

Its concerns expose key takeaways about the regime’s vulnerabilities.

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Writing for the IRGC’s internal newspaper snr commander & IRGC political deputy Yadollah Javani (overseen by Khamenei’s office) reveals concerns over the prospect of anti-regime protests in Iran following Assad’s collapse—what he calls the “Zionist’s satanic plans.” 2/

Remember when the media ignored and even discounted reports of chemical attacks on schoolgirls in Iran.

New evidence now reveals the IRGC has been developing pharmaceutical-based chemical weapons.

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For background: the 1st reported chemical attack was during the protests in Nov 2022 in Qom & soon spread nationwide. From Nov—March 2023, 130 elementary & high schools were targeted. +300 attacks across 139 cities/towns. Attacks resumed with April 2023 re-opening of schools 2/

“We zealous youth will not forget the cowardice of the decision-makers” — a young IRGC radical tells me.

Fault lines are emerging in Iran’s IRGC over the handling of Syria. Younger radicals are enraged at the “abandonment.” This will cause Khamenei major problems.

👇🧵1/ The internal backlash inside the IRGC over the senior commanders’ handling of Syria has been overlooked. I’ve spent the past 72 hours talking with the younger radical ranks of the IRGC. From these convos + recent trends, it’s clear an internal crisis is looming. 2/

Israel and the West should capitalise on Assad and Khamenei’s moment of vulnerability in #Syria.

The time has now arisen to break the backbone of Hezbollah and Tehran’s network of terrorist militias 👇🧵

1/20 “If Syria falls, Hezbollah will be besieged… and all of its achievements will be lost.” Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s terror chief – recently killed in an Israeli airstrike – made this assertion in 2015. 2/20

The West is in denial about the Iranian regime’s war on Jews.

For Khamenei and the IRGC, war with Israel is not about deterrence or Gaza. Rather, it is about the annihilation of the Jewish people.

🧵👇1/16 In the wake of the Oct 7 Hamas terrorist attacks, many Western leaders & academics have attempted to rationalize and even justify Tehran’s growing direct and proxy attacks on Israel. 2/16

The election of #Trump has checkmated the Ayatollah in #Iran.

Trump may not seek overt regime change as a policy, but it may be one of the inadvertent consequences of his actions.

👇🧵 1/16 Trump’s election is the worst possible scenario for supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, and his brutal ideological paramilitary, the IRGC. Here’s why 👇2/16

The presidency Masoud Pezeshkian the so-called “reformist” runs against the pattern of “purification” Khamenei has been spearheading in the past 5 years.

So what changed Khamenei’s mind?

Quick analysis 🧵👇1/10 Let’s be clear from offset: there will be no change to key policy/ strategic direction of the regime. That’s set by Khamenei. The presidency is merely a rubber stamp & the face of the regime abroad. Pezeshkian wouldn’t have become president with consent from Khamenei & IRGC. 2/10

Iran’s regime has a track record of engineering demographic changes in Syria/Iraq. We reveal how it’s now manufacturing demographic changes in Iran via Shia migration from Afghanistan to fill the widening gap between the regime & Iran’s people 👇🧵atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransour… There’s currently 6 million Afghan migrants in Iran. Reports indicate if current trajectory of migration continues, this could increase to “20 million in next 3 years.” The regime has quickly awarded full rights to migrants (incl. Iranian IDs)—breaking from past discrimination.

Quick analysis on Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran’s regime, including:

1. Khamenei/IRGC calculus 🇮🇷
2. Israel’s retaliation 🇮🇱
3. Iranian people response 🟢⚪️🔴

🧵👇1/11 Iran’s regime knew Israel would retaliate to its unprecedented escalation—& will view yesterday as just the beginning. Knowing this, it’ll start pushing the propaganda line that it’s showing “restraint” to depict Israel as the “aggressor” and spin the narrative. 2/11

10) All signs once again indicate these chem attacks have been directly or indirectly coordinated by regime security estab. The Iranian people believe that with such attacks regime has one goal: inflict terror & punish, Iranian society to deter future mass unrest, which is likely 11) This should not be surprising. As supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared in October 2022 in response to ongoing protests: the problem of young people and teenagers on the streets can be “resolved through punishments.”

1)🚨 Let’s talk chemical poisoning attacks on schools in Iran which have specifically targeted schoolgirls. These ongoing attacks have received v little media attention, so in this 🧵 @SaeidGolkar & I take an in-depth look and analyse 👇 2) 1st report of chemical attacks was Nov 2022 in Qom & they’ve spread nationwide since. In past Iranian year which ended in March, 130 elementary & high schools targeted. Reports show +300 attacks across 139 cities/towns. Attacks resumed with April re-opening of schools

1) As the EU & UK consider listing IRGC as a terror group, the issue of Iranian conscripts has emerged as a potential barrier.

@SaeidGolkar & I outline why conscription should not be a barrier to listing the IRGC as a terrorist org 👇#IRGCterrorists foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/30/ira… 2) Opponents of designation claim listing the IRGC would punish draftees who are conscripted to IRGC and have “no choice” but to complete their compulsory service. They argue listing IRGC, which would bar IRGC members from entering Europe, would unfairly punish conscripts.

1) The UK must proscribe the IRGC as a terrorist organisation now

Our new paper makes a clear case for proscription: from exposing IRGC indoctrination material to tracking the rising threat of homegrown Islamist radicalisation in Europe 👇
#IRGCterrorists institute.global/policy/making-… 2) Correctly defining IRGC is key to proscription. It’s not a conventional state army. Rather it can most accurately be defined as
an ideological organisation. It began as an Islamist militia & has maintained its militia identity through the way it operates today. I explain👇

1) What’s happening inside #Iran should not be surprising. It’s been clear for years that the Iranian people want regime change. But like Ukraine, the West was misled by so-called "experts", who made everything about JCPOA & Trump.
 
Here's what they've not told you👇 2) State & society gap in Iran has been increasing for years. Since early 90s, Iran’s society has experienced process of secularisation/liberalisation. Today, this has reached unprecedented levels. Polling reveals 68% Iranians want secular state, only 32% identify as Shia Muslim

1)#Iran’s Foreign Ministry reporting that Raab spoke with Zarif ahead of this week’s #JCPOA talks in Vienna

Iran’s MFA reports Raab told Zarif “London will do its best to help negotiations bear fruit”.But #UK’s changing posture toward Iran should noted

Reflections on UK-JCPOA👇 2) Two weeks ago, the #UK published its Integrated Review (IR) – the biggest review of UK defence, security & foreign policy since cold war - where it outlined overarching international policy objectives until 2030.

Rising concerns about #Iran’s regime featured throughout 👇