Easing business conditions: With opening up of the economy and increased movement across the country following the easing of lockdown measures, the on-the-ground situation for the company looks positive. Business activity is improving MoM.
The credit protect business is witnessing growth on the back of increased disbursements. HDFC Group forms less than 30% of the credit protect business. In the non-HDFC Group segment, no single entity accounts for more than 5% in the product mix
During COVID Wave II, the cigarettes industry was affected by severe restrictions on store operating hours & reduced mobility; hence, May was much affected. Post first week of June, week-on-week demand has improved and the recovery rate is faster than that during last year.
ITC’s capsule cigarettes are present across all segments of DSFT, RSFT, Longs and KSFT. ITC believes that this category has high growth potential and hence, has heavily invested to effect 100% indigenization.
The pandemic-related disruption impacted most consumer companies but weighed heavily on ITC which reported a sharp earning decline in FY21. ITC enjoys low base benefit but 1Q performance has been sharply ahead led by cigarettes (& paperboards); FMCG EBIT was also ahead.
Management showed agility during times of disruption and has presented a fairly positive outlook. We raise EPS by 2-4% and view ITC as a high conviction Buy with a price target of Rs275.
There are a few brands that have revolutionized different industries in India over the years, be it in terms of quality, supply, or in terms of variety. They have given cold feet to their competitors, have brought in challenges, and simultaneously made a name for themselves.
One such brand in the FMCG retail business is Naturals Ice Creams. A brand that understood customer choice and taste, capitalized on unique product options, and established a reputed name in the age-old ice cream parlours business of India.
Around 20% of agri business division's revenue in FY21 came from its value-added business.
ITC in recent years has launched frozen vegetables such as peas, tinda and parwal under the Farmland brand. It has also launched frozen shrimps under Kitchens of India. Acc to management, “The agri-business is the source of competitive advantage for our food business”
Management Update – Hina Nagarajan will take charge as New MD & CEO from 1st July 2021. Prior to this, she was MD at Africa regional markets at Diageo, 30 years of experience in CPG businesses & worked with various organizations like Nestle, RB, Mary Kay India.
P&A segment–Adjusting for ₹2.5bn revenue of Scotch in Q4FY20, revenue grew ~31% implying strong resiliency of the brands. Scotch segment grew double digit, fastest growing business in portfolio, offset by contraction of owned business in AP, unwinding of franchise business
Consolidated Revenue +59% YoY to Rs 74940mn
EBIDTA +33% YoY to Rs 8170mn || EBIDTA margins 10.9% v/s 13% YoY
(Jewellery business has lower gross margins+ some one offs including lower studded share, sale bullion and higher gold coin sale impacted gross margins further) (2/n)
PBT +43% YoY to Rs 7300mn
PAT +66% YoY to Rs 5680mn (mainly on a/c of lower YoY tax rate at 22.2% v/s 32.6% YoY) (3/n)
UNSP, a unit of drinks major Diageo, has tasked investment bank Morgan Stanley to find potential buyers for select “popular” mass-priced brands as it looks to take on French rival Pernord Ricard and adopt a premiumisation strategy
For the year ended 31 March 2020, UNSPs "prestige and above" segment represented 65% of its total net sales and 51% of total sales volume.
Smaller players facing credit challenges. A few of the smaller jewelry players are seeing some stress in terms of bank limits, which has not increased for them commensurate to the gold price increase. Nevertheless, several players have done well in 3QFY21.
Recent demand trends. Geographically, South saw the strongest growth, led by the state of Tamil Nadu. The West market (mainly Mumbai and Pune) was impacted the most. Delhi too was impacted but has largely bounced back.
2020-2030: DECADE OF TRANSFORMATION FOR INDIA AND THE TATA GROUP
Courtesy - #kotakSecurities
Time for thread 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
Over next decade, Group’s vision is to ensure digital transformation for each of its companies – whether engaged in capital-intensive B2B or niche B2C. Other new initiatives include: digital app where work is on in full swing and making a transformation to EVs in Tata Motor.
Tata Steel. Indian steel business generates significant financial returns, but European business is lagging. European steel also had a lot of leverage, but recent initiatives will ensure that it will not impact Tata Steel’s overall outlook. (3/n)
FMCG business: setting up for the long-haul. ITC highlighted the sharp margin improvement witnessed over recent quarters, underlining aspirations to achieve industry- leading profitability in the FMCG business.
*FMCG contd*: The company has pushed ahead on the strategic imperative to focus on low penetration/low per capita consumption categories which offer long-term growth runways.
Rural India will witness increased focus, aims to increase distribution to ~120,000 villages from 89,288 currently (2/n)
*Total reach*: has increased by ~18% to 4.7mn outlets between CY16 to CY20. In the same period, villages covered increased from 1000 to 89,288 and company aims to further increase coverage to ~120,000 villages i.e. 34% increase in next 4 years. (3/n)
Revenue was flat yoy at Rs117.8 bn. EBITDA declined 7% yoy to Rs42.8 bn.
Cigarette * Cigarettes net revenue declined 7.6% yoy and EBIT declined 8% yoy to Rs34.5 bn. Cigarette business witnessed sequential recovery led by enhanced mobility in metro/tier- 1 cities. Net declined 7.6% yoy during the quarter.
Business Update: Witnessing improving customer confidence reflected in new business trends in individual as well as group credit protect business. Continue to see improved pickup in savings business due increased volume as well as ticket size.
Product mix remains balanced. Constant endeavour to grow annuity protect business. Remains watchful on renewal and persistency trend.
ITCs balance sheet is distributed 45-55 between cigarette and the non cigarette business.
If with a price hike in cigarette business and a volume growth of ~4%, EBITDA rises by ~8%. It will not be significant on balance sheet but it will be positive because every time in the budget , everyone is expecting sin tax to be increased & that is a burden ITC carries
Value investing doesn’t have to be about low valuation metrics. Value can be found in many forms. The fact that a company grows rapidly, relies on intangibles such as technology for its success and/or has a high p/e ratio shouldn’t mean it can’t be invested.
Many sources of potential value can’t be reduced to a number. As Albert Einstein purportedly said,“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” The fact that something can’t be predicted with precision doesn’t mean it isn’t real.