JOBS REPORT BOMBSHELL: BLS report suggests Non Farms jobs inflated by apx +720,000 in 2023

- QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages) report suggests Non Farm reports were inflated / overestimated by an average of 60,000 per month.

Breakdown:

- The QCEW is reported by quarterly and collects data directly from payrolls. It covers 95% of all US jobs and is collected from 12 million establishments.

- The Non Farm report, on the other hand, is produced monthly. It comes through a "survey" of apx 120,000 establishments. Moreover, it is a survey so it depends on a response rate which has frequently been under 50% of late.

TLDR: QWEC comes from payroll, unemployment insurance tax records info of 12 million establishments (establishment meaning businesses, government). Non Farm is a survey from apx 120,000 establishments.

I published a report earlier this year showing how all non farms reports in a 7 month period were later revised down. This new data aligns with that report and the QWEC is part of what contributes to said revisions as non Farm jobs reports seem to reconcile with QWEC.

A very fair question at this point would be, why after so many consecutive, heavy, revisions down would the Non Farm jobs would not begin adjusting numbers in advance based on QWEC trends vs publishing a hot headline number then revising down later. One could argue methodology. Perhaps the BLS will shed light on that at some point...

Sources:

(RAW data and data tables)
Bloomberg


To any accounts interested or financial outlets, this is worth sharing - feel free to do so and use this data as you wish. No need to credit or retweet this post if not desired. More important information be shared. Feel free to visit sources to verify data @zerohedge @unusual_whales @MSNBC #stockmarketsBLS.gov
BLS.gov
BLS.gov
bls.gov/web/cewdat.sup…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Two of my previous reports:

- Showing that jobs were consecutively revised down after the fact

- Showing that National Data did not align with state level data
🤝

https://x.com/ProfitsTaken/status/1699146004644176046

https://x.com/ProfitsTaken/status/1756492680144552285

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