Stephen Beban Profile picture
Policy Advisor for a NZ Ministry; Former @FairVote Analyst | @WellingtonUni MA (Pol Sci): DPR™ ≫ DMP ≫ MMP, List-PR, STV ≫ FPTP | Views expressed are my own.
26 Dec 20
Since I spent the time pulling it together, thought I'd share a rough projection of #Redistricting2021 with #ElectionTwitter (notwithstanding some uncertainty). 1/34

This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates.… @DrRyanPhd
Getting the 1-seat states out of the way: 2/34

Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
FL: 17R-12D 3/34

State redistricting laws + 2 new seats makes me imagine they’ll leave existing D seats alone, & add a new one in South FL. Then they can safely add an R seat around Orlando (& maybe try to flip another given 2020 Latino movement), while shoring up FL-26 & 27.
Read 44 tweets
23 Sep 20
Welcome to the #ArtOfTheGerrymander! 1/43

A Dem-map a day to explore:
* state political geography &
* unfairness of single-winner districts
@davesredist +2020 projections #ElectionTwitter

@JMilesColeman @mikemathieu @PoliticsWolf @DKElections @Redistrict…
2/43 Our running total starts: 5D-8R (skipping AK, DE, ND, SD, RI, VT, WY, HI, ID, WV).

NB: I try to maintain communities of interest & relatively compact maps; but compromise for D-maximization (may not comply with local rules). And I apply VRA as >50% primary (not total) pop.
3/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Utah

First off are some red states with competitive suburban seats e.g. Salt Lake City. I'd rate UT-04 as competitive by default, but would lean D with @RepBenMcAdams' incumbency. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 5D-11R-1?… ImageImageImageImage
Read 44 tweets
28 Mar 20
My contribution to keeping quarantined #ElectionTwitter sane: A Tour of the 50 States*

*Equal-population simulation (approximated by counties) 1/40
@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @HarryEnten @Redistrict @ecaliberseven @PoliticsWolf @uselectionatlas @DKElections @Center4Politics
I used Redraw the States to resize them all to 10-11 Electoral Votes (sans DC/3 & Los Angeles county/16).

Electoral College:
2016: Clinton 297-241
2012: Obama 317-221

Then got curious how they voted for Gov/Sen... 2/40…
NB: Methodology: I combined results by year-sets e.g. 2012-16 (Sen), and 2013-16 (Gov).

I used the wonderful to pull county results going back to 1957 (i.e. stopped when Hawaii and Alaska were admitted as states + data quality issues that far back). 3/40
Read 42 tweets
30 Jan 20
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets