Stephen Beban Profile picture
Policy Advisor in NZ; Formerly @FairVote | @WellingtonUni MA of Pol Sci (on DPR™ electoral system) | I try to be informative ≫ emotive.
Nov 13, 2022 111 tweets 165 min read
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
Dec 26, 2020 44 tweets 20 min read
Since I spent the time pulling it together, thought I'd share a rough projection of #Redistricting2021 with #ElectionTwitter (notwithstanding some uncertainty). 1/34

This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates.… @DrRyanPhd Getting the 1-seat states out of the way: 2/34

Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
Sep 23, 2020 44 tweets 75 min read
Welcome to the #ArtOfTheGerrymander! 1/43

A Dem-map a day to explore:
* state political geography &
* unfairness of single-winner districts
@davesredist +2020 projections #ElectionTwitter

@JMilesColeman @mikemathieu @PoliticsWolf @DKElections @Redistrict… 2/43 Our running total starts: 5D-8R (skipping AK, DE, ND, SD, RI, VT, WY, HI, ID, WV).

NB: I try to maintain communities of interest & relatively compact maps; but compromise for D-maximization (may not comply with local rules). And I apply VRA as >50% primary (not total) pop.
Mar 28, 2020 42 tweets 26 min read
My contribution to keeping quarantined #ElectionTwitter sane: A Tour of the 50 States*

*Equal-population simulation (approximated by counties) 1/40
@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @HarryEnten @Redistrict @ecaliberseven @PoliticsWolf @uselectionatlas @DKElections @Center4Politics I used Redraw the States to resize them all to 10-11 Electoral Votes (sans DC/3 & Los Angeles county/16).

Electoral College:
2016: Clinton 297-241
2012: Obama 317-221

Then got curious how they voted for Gov/Sen... 2/40…
Jan 30, 2020 27 tweets 35 min read
Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27

@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview… Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27…