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Policy Advisor in NZ; Formerly @FairVote | @WellingtonUni MA of Pol Sci (on DPR™ electoral system) | I try to be informative ≫ emotive.
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Nov 13, 2022
165 min read
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
Dec 26, 2020
20 min read
Since I spent the time pulling it together, thought I'd share a rough projection of
(notwithstanding some uncertainty). 1/34
This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates.
Getting the 1-seat states out of the way: 2/34
• AK-DE-ND-RI-SD-VT-WY: 4R-3D
Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
Sep 23, 2020
75 min read
Welcome to the
A Dem-map a day to explore:
* state political geography &
* unfairness of single-winner districts
2/43 Our running total starts: 5D-8R (skipping AK, DE, ND, SD, RI, VT, WY, HI, ID, WV).
NB: I try to maintain communities of interest & relatively compact maps; but compromise for D-maximization (may not comply with local rules). And I apply VRA as >50% primary (not total) pop.
Mar 28, 2020
26 min read
My contribution to keeping quarantined
sane: A Tour of the 50 States*
*Equal-population simulation (approximated by counties) 1/40
I used Redraw the States to resize them all to 10-11 Electoral Votes (sans DC/3 & Los Angeles county/16).
2016: Clinton 297-241
2012: Obama 317-221
Then got curious how they voted for Gov/Sen... 2/40
Jan 30, 2020
35 min read
App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020).
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The
(R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real
(R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27