Principal & VC @UofGlasgow | Former Chair @RussellGroup Universities | Chair, Trustee Board Royal Economic Society | Inter Milan fan | Opinions mine |
Aug 7, 2022 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
Just a few thoughts on last week's @bankofengland Monetary Policy Report and forecast bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-polic… and the press and political comments on it. A short thread 🧵👇(1/n)
First of all, as has already been pointed out, monetary policy cannot fully offset an external supply/stagflationary shock. The (oversimplified) analogy I like to give is that because of increasing imported fuel/food/raw material prices our national income has been hit. (2/n)
Jun 16, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
A few thoughts in a short 🧵 on the @ecb announcement of an anti-fragmentation tool. First of all the one positive aspect: the Eurozone does need another instrument to deal with instability in bond markets as rates inevitably rise to combat inflation (1/n)
A few weeks ago in an op-Ed in @DomaniGiornale I did mention the need for the bank to deal with the ECB to develop additional instruments to deal with the inevitable pressures on spreads as the QE programme is unwound: editorialedomani.it/economia/infla… (2/n) @FrancesDiBi
Jan 4, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
A short thread on the implications of the new #SARSCoV2 🇿🇦 and 🇬🇧 variants, vaccinations and the economy (1/9)
2. The emergence of the new variants makes the endgame of the pandemic much more complicated. As many have said the more infectious nature of these variants means that the vaccination effort needs to be ramped up more quickly than anticipated.
Dec 24, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
1. Some initial thoughts on the U.K.-EU trade deal, in advance of seeing the text, which is reported to be 2,000 pages plus...A THREAD (1/10)
2. As has been said repeatedly, this is what was described at the start of the process as a hard Brexit: the U.K. will be outside the Single Market and the Customs Union. There will be no tariffs or quotas but customs checks etc will erect substantial trade barriers in EU trade
#ALevels2020
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Students receiving their #ALevelResults today have worked incredibly hard in unprecedented circumstances, and should be congratulated on their achievements.
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Aug 11, 2020 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
THREAD: My thoughts on the announcement this afternoon by the Deputy First Minister @JohnSwinney on the 2020 SQA exam results. #SQAResults
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This is a very welcome decision which will ensure young people in #Scotland who have worked so hard in incredibly difficult circumstances do not lose out based on factors outwith their control, and we should all congratulate them on the grades they have achieved. 2/10
Jul 9, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD: This is my response to the announcement from the @scotgov today of the need to change the fee status for future EU students as a result of the UK's departure from the European Union. 1/8
In many respects this is a sad day for Scotland – an unavoidable consequence of #Brexit, and one of the many ways in which the decision to leave the European Union will leave us diminished. Students from across Europe enhance our campuses and our country socially, culturally 2/8
Mar 5, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
A short thread on the economic impact of Covid-19. At a time when human health and our safety is at major risk this is a secondary consideration. However, it’s still important to understand how govts might need to respond 1.
The first thing to understand is that Covid-19 initially at least is what economists call a ‘supply shock’. It negatively affects economic production through disrupting global supply chains and reducing workforce participation/labour supply 2.
Oct 22, 2019 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A short thread on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill. As I said yesterday, we are approaching one of only 2-3 pivotal remaining moments in the pre-Brexit saga. (The second one being an election and the third - a very uncertain prospect now - a new referendum on the deal)
1.
It seems very likely that the WAB will pass its second reading given that the independent conservatives and some labour MPs will support it, and indeed Labour as a whole may abstain.
2.
Mar 9, 2019 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
As we approach the latest round of ‘decisions’ (sic) on Brexit by House of Commons., some thoughts on the odds of various scenarios.
1.
First of all, it’s worth reminding ourselves that Brussels cannot and will not offer a unilateral exit from the NI element of the backstop. A time-limited backstop is a contradiction in terms. Hence @MichelBarnier latest thread sets out how far the EU might go on this
2.
