I am not making any representations or investment actions about this token. People must DYOR and I know this will be anathema to many maxis.
It is certainly a VERY different risk & return proposition from HODLing #btc.
The proposition is that investors can make money through
Nov 2, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A reflective thread.
You can become a whole coiner today for $63,333 or £46,435. If I am correct the downside on these purchases is effectively $3,000 or £2,400.
This is already getting out of the realm of possibility for ordinarty people under age 40
In six months time, I expect one #BTC will cost more that $100,000 (£75,000), which puts it out of the range of almost all ordinary people.
Time is not on your side. The target is running away.....
Nov 2, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Probably nothing! This pattern will resolve and all indications are bullish on daily and shorter, and macro is great!
Yes!
Oct 31, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"....because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know.
And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones."
Donald Rumsfeld on why 60% in bitcoin is enough.....
Oct 31, 2021 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
A thread on diversification {for consideration by #BTC maximalists:
“I am all-in. I think, until you are, your bitcoin-measured net worth is going to be constantly diminishing.
And sure there are less volatile assets out there, but are the really and truly less 'risky'.
I guess it comes down to expectations of how possible/likely it is that bitcoin 'fails', because I don't think there's a scenario where it just meanders along at the same fiat value
Jul 29, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I have just finished leasing a discussion amongst strategic macro hedge fund managers about the concepts of diversification and conviction in managing a portfolio.
Traditional quants in fund management will build models to predict returns over a given horizon say 6 months.
They will also predict risk of each asset class and the inter-relationships between the asset classes.
Then they employ a risk model to determine the likely worst outcome for any given set of percentage asset allocations
May 19, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
People have been asking me – “am I alright?” & “what’s going to happen next?”. Sadly a number of people who I have chatted to about their holdings have been wiped out – a number at 43k, a number at 41k and this morning I have an inbox of people
who have been killed at 5:43 am London when 39k was breached!
I have always advocated those with ‘available fiat’ (cash) to #BTFD. By available, I have always said ‘cash you can afford to lose’.
May 17, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My total wealth portfolio has a beta to #btc. This means that, all things being equal, if bitcoin goes up say 2%, my portfolio goes up {2*beta}%. My bitcoin beta was 0.16 at the beginning of March. It is now "irresponsibly long" at 0.34.
Putting it another way. At the moment if #btc goes from 44500 to 64500 my total wealth rises by 15 percent. Which is around $820,000. #hodl#btfd#upmybeta
May 8, 2021 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
An innocent DM "How do you handle risk in your portfolio given you keep buying £20k slugs of #btc?" generates three to me deep questions which are not typically CT material. What is risk? What is a portfolio? What is your position size?
I learned risk at the feet of Peter L Bernstein in the 1980s. Sitting in front of a huge tank in the Monterey Aquarium, Peter suggested we had conducted a sophisticated risk analysis before joining the dinner. We had considered what would happen if the giant glass tank behind
May 7, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1/ What is wealthy? Traditional “High Net Worth” is liquid assets (excluding your principal house and subtracting mortgages and other debts) of one to five million USD. I suggest that is on the low side today, but I think we would all agree $2.5m of investable assets is wealthy.
2/ So lets assume you haven’t borrowed to buy your bitcoin. Nor have any other investments. How many bitcoin do you need to have HODLed to meet that HNW target?
May 7, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
1/ I have been asked about the mechanics of buying a #BTC option on an exchange which operates in #BTC (not USD) like Deribit or Phemex. This causes confusion, unsurprisingly. We are used to exchanges which operate in USD with a strike price in USD.
2/ Deribit, for example, operates in #BTC. Prices of options ON #BTC and thus profits FROM #BTC options are denominated in #BTC. You don’t come across USD except for the strike price.
