Foreign Ed @the_hindu; JNU PhD; Coauthor of The Comrades & The Mullahs; Author of The ISIS Caliphate; Adjunct Faculty at @ACJIndia; Tweets are personal.
2 subscribers
Sep 30 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The killing of #HassanNasrallah. A short analytical thread.
When Nasrallah decided to fire rockets into northern Israel, what he wanted was to keep some military pressure on Israel through a limited war. Neither Iran nor Hezbollah wanted an allout war. Nasrallah probably thought he could wind down the war once there's a ceasefire in Gaza.
Nov 7, 2023 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Long Thread
Some basic facts on Israel-Palestine.
The state of Israel was created within Palestine in 1948. Historical Palestine was part of the Ottoman Empire, like most other WestAsian countries. Those countries became independent either after the fall of the Ottomans or through decolonisation, but Palestine is still not free.
Oct 13, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
If you are a Realist, how do you look at the Gaza war. The structural reasons of the crisis are the occupation of the Palestine territories. Israel has been going to war for decades for peace & security. But history tells us that it won't have peace unless the core is addressed.
In 1948, the state of Israel was created and in the subsequent war, Israel captured some 22% more territories of historical Palestine than what the UN Partition plan had proposed. The war turned some 700,000 Palestinians refugees. Was there peace after this?
Sep 19, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Trudeau's allegations are based on the intel gathered by his agents & an investigation is on. Even if the allegations turn out to be true, it is quite unusual for a PM to raise them publicly naming a friendly country & expelling its diplomat. It shows the current status of ties.
India recently had raised serious protests with Trudeau's minority govt (which is kept in power by the NDP led by Jagmeet Singh) over the presence of Sikh extremists in Canada. The tableau featuring Mrs Gandhi’s assassination was one such incident. This has already strained ties.
Mar 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The bedrock of US-Saudi ties (dating back to FDR) was the security guarantees that the US offered to the Kingdom (in return for oil). It was broken when Iran attacked Saudi oil facilities in 2019 & the US, under Trump, looked away. That was a moment of reckoning for the Saudis.
The US's disengagement from WA deepened the insecurities of its Arab allies. Iran's rise was real. The solution offered was normalisation of ties with Israel--the road the UAE took. But Saudi Arabia faced limitations, especially at a time when violence spreads in the West Bank.
Mar 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Now we can say with certainty that Russia miscalculated #Ukraine's response when it launched thunder raids in the key cities & limited land attacks from the borders. Having realized that its tactics backfired, Russia is now changing its approach with more reinforcements and fire.
Russia is advancing from 4 axes--south (Crimea), east (Donbas), northeast (towards Kharkiv) & north (towards Kiev). Day 5 saw heavy attacks in the northeast, including rockets, & east (on Mariupol) and gains in the south. Kiev remained relatively calm, but a storm is coming.
In the Clubhouse 'Meet the Author' discussion, there's an interesting question. The Middle East, West Asia or the Gulf: Which is the correct term? A small thread explaining these terminologies.
Geographically, the region between the Mediterranean Sea in the north & the Arabian Sea in the South and the Red Sea in the West & Central and South Asia in the East is the western part of the Asian continent. So it's West Asia. Indian govt & academics largely call it West Asia.
Jun 22, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Thread: Why the Indian govt is reaching out to Pakistan, Taliban and J&K parties? My sense is this. The crackdown in Kashmir & a hot LoC had been factored in in China's aggression on the LAC. Briefly, India faced the two-front threat. Then came the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
India wants to focus on LAC. The rise of the Mujaheddin & Taliban in Afghanistan in the past had had implications for Kashmir. The US pullout now leaves Pak and Taliban stronger. Faced with the China challenge, India doesn't want things to go out of hand in the western border.
thehindu.com/news/internati…#EbrahimRaisi was reportedly a member of the so-called death commission that implemented Khomeini's decree to execute political prisoners in 1988 after the Iran-Iraq war. With his win, the clerical establishment has taken absolute control over all structures of power in #Iran.
Aug 13, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Israel and the UAE reach historic deal which will normalise relations between the countries. UAE will be the third Arab country, after Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, opening formal diplomatic ties with Israel. Next could be Saudi Arabia.
As part of the deal, Israel will suspend plans to annex the Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank. Israel and the Gulf Arab kingdoms had stepped up informal contacts in recent years, mainly driven by shared concerns on Iran. The deal is historic.
