🧵 Some Weekly Thoughts on Dry Bulk (by looking at China and the iron ore/steel market)

China published August statistics last week, and we are seeing exports continuing to grow (+8.7% YoY) with imports slowing down and a record trade surplus. If we look past the headline, imo this also highlights weak domestic demand.

🔩 Iron ore imports were equal to 101m tons (-4.7% MoM), while coal imports were up by 3.4% to 45.8m tons. If we look at the Jan-Aug period iron ore imports were up 5.2% YoY; according to ABG imports above 100m tons should allow healthy Cape rates.

#shiptwit #drybulk $SBLK $GNK $SHIP $DSX $SB $GOGL $EDRY $BELCO.OL $USEA $HSHP

1/n ⛴️ Moving to port inventories, these stood at 150.8m tons, up 17% compared to last year (despite iron ore imports being down in August); it will be interesting to see if this trend continues, signalling weak steel mills demand and de-stocking, which could negatively affect Capes demand.

On the other hand, Pareto came out with an interesting note on China’s iron ore inventories, stating that contracting steel margins should, in their view, create demand for higher quality iron ore (which is mainly imported via capes) and that it remains to be seen if the big iron ore inventories in China are of “good-enough” quality to be used in steel mills in the current low margins environment.

2/n

🧵 Gulf Marine Services #GMS.L - A deleverage story in a rapidly improving offshore market

Below a short analysis made with @Magnus12316

#rigs #shiptwit #oil #oott #offshore

1/n THE FLEET

#GMS.L has a fleet of 13 advanced self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels, mainly in the AG (and one vessel in the North Sea).

These are accommodation units for workers servicing offshore oil fields.

2/n

🧵 $DIS.MI D'Amico International Shipping Q4 Update

After Q3 '22 results I posted the below, and given Q4 results came out today I thought to give an update on one of the most interesting product tanker stocks out there, imo.

$STNG $TRMD $PXS $ASC $HAFNI.OL $DHT $FRO $EURN

https://twitter.com/lzab1453/status/1591718688763555840

Q4 results came out highlighting the quality of the commercial team, which achieved $42,751/day for its spot vessels (on a fleet with only 1 scrubber), and $38.8k/day for 58% of spot days available.

🧵🧵🧵Why I believe Tanker stocks have more upside

Without entering into the details, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has (and still is) dislocating the seaborne trade of crude oil, oil products and LNG.

$STNG $DIS.MI $ASC $TRMD $FRO $DHT $OET.OL $INSW $TNK $PXS Spot TCE for product tankers are the ones that jumped first and went from below $10k/day to an average of $40-50k per day in Q3 (and are rising even more in Q4). VLCC rates picked up since September and are now at around $90k/day.

🧵🧵🧵 $DIS.MI D'Amico International Shipping Q3 Update

Q3 came out on 10/11/2022, reporting record EBITDA of $69.1m and a Net Result of $43.6m. The Company is in line to generate more than $200m in FY'22 EBITDA and more than $105m in Net Income.

$DIS.MI $STNG $ASC $TRMD $PXS It trades at €0.356/share and has a Mkt Cap of €435m. Current NAV is ca. €0.57/share, trading at a 37.5% discount to NAV, compared to an avg. 19% discount of its peers. Just by closing this gap, it could trade at €0.46 (30% upside from current levels).

Further Analysis Below

🧵🧵🧵 D'Amico International Shipping ( $DIS.MI) is a shipping company operating a fleet of 35 Product Tankers, ranging in size between Handysize and LR1s.

The average age of the fleet is 6.9 yrs vs an avg. age of 12 yrs for the global product tanker fleet. CAPEX: After a big fleet renewal program started in 2012 (investment of more than $900m) the company has no other CAPEX commitments other than regular maintenance (dry dockings/special surveys)