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Macro Twain Profile picture
Macro Twain
@macrotwain
Global Macro PM. Treat my tweets as no more than a trader's journal "I'm not predicting, I'm observing"
2 subscribers
Apr 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
2019 haunts me. The tech liftoff in 2H19 with Fed cuts. You can see it with $AAPL but not at the index level. Speaks to crowding and concentration in 1Q 2023

$AAPL was in a similar place financially. Small stagnation at top and bottom line...but less net cash today 1/3 $AAPL Q2 2019 looked similar to Q2 2023 (quarters are rolled back one for AAPL)

By Q3 2019, the story was stabilizing, which is what the 2023 estimates look like today...2/3
Aug 4, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Great thread @PauloMacro . Much to think about and remember. My fund at the time was prime brokered at Bear, so I too remember the 'market clearing' calls and our sales guys showing up at JPM for work the next day as if it was business as usual (it wasn't) March - May 2008 S&Ps were up 12% and kissed the 200d, but the market technicals showed that the world was still in deep sht

I would offer this to try to help people think thru. Chasing $TSLA or ponzis higher isnt an investment strategy. The path is to acknowledge the following Image
Nov 12, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
As a deal guy, Rupert is a genius. He's been a buyer at the lows and a seller at the highs in the online luxury space. Not only is $CFR.SW rallying on earnings but he's putting $FTCH in a box just like he did to Net-A-Porter (NAPG) and eventually Yoox. I'll explain Rupert has treated the internet like the bubbly kid it is:

He put a toe in the water on NAPG in 2000. He bought 20% in 2002 with a ROFR. He watched the Yoox IPO in 2009, and bought control (93%) of NAPG in 2010 for £350m. In 2015, he merged NAPG w Yoox at ~$1.3b in valuation.
Oct 15, 2021 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
#Copper thread

1/ Everywhere on Twitter 'I Told You So' copper bulls are running

I get it- a technical setup where the 200d is defended & old highs are retested

And yes, I'm short duration & know the correlation w/ copper/gold

(ed note: do copper bulls short gold or bonds? :) 2/ Unfortunately, the only tangible news behind this copper squeeze are a #CCP PBOC official talking about 'Rule of Law' principles resolving Evergrande.

Are you kidding me?

nypost.com/2021/10/15/eve…
Aug 20, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Some thoughts on $FTCH....so many big buyers that got it wrong....why? In a word....#China

This platform looks like a pure play on Chinese luxury growth at this point...and right now that ain't good

wsj.com/articles/selli…
Aug 19, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
What if China devalued the #Renminbi like Aug 2015?

- Maximum pain to Biden administration who would lack a clear response

- Diminish export pain of Delta lockdowns at the expense of the world

- Create confusion around Evergrande default terms

$CNH is too quiet vs greater FX This move in $CNH.... Image
Aug 18, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
We were told Joe Biden was going to restore America's standing on the world stage. US allies have every right to feel double crossed by these feckless buffoons running the Biden regime