1/ Time for update: Last December, @MarenVieluf and I published @TheNonproReview article on how rise of nationalist populism increases nuclear dangers and upsets nuclear order. We categoriezed Trump, Modi, Johnson, Putin as nationalist populists. is.gd/Oc34Na Thread 👇 2/ Reading Putin's Sept. 30 speech this morning (what a way to start Sunday ...), I feel tempted to argue why including Russian President in that category was correct.
Here we go: We identify 5 characteristics of nationalist populists' external policies. is.gd/UUj86x

1/ A short thread: New report by Michael Staack @HSUHamburg and me on "China's role in multilateral arms control" published by @FESonline. pdf here is.gd/5xBp7g 2/ We ask on what arms control, disarmament and nonproliferaton issues engagement with China makes sense from German and EU perspective. Argue China’s involvement in multilateral, regional and bilateral agreements to limit military capacities is a value in and of itself.

1/ "#Chemiewaffen: Herausforderung für die internationale Ordnung". Neuer @blaetter Artikel meines @IFSHHamburg Kollegen @DrAlexKelle und mir ist jetzt frei zugänglich: blaetter.de/node/30740 2/ Wir fragen am Beispiel von Russlands Verletzungen des #Chemiewaffenübereinkommen: Wie soll internationale Gemeinschaft mit Staaten umgehen, die Verträge verletzen und gezielt Sand in Getriebe multilateraler Institutionen wie der @OPCW streuen?

1/ AEOI President Eslami and @iaeaorg DG @rafaelmgrossi have agreed joint statement which outlines process for possible resolution safeguards issues. iaea.org/node/102067 2/ @rafaelmgrossi "will aim to report his conclusion [on safeguards] by the June 2022 Board of Governors." Says process is "losely related" to possible agreement on #JCPOA reinstatement. Seems like this agreement will be major part of final puzzle to be solved.

1/ Nuclear blackmail failing? Russia's nuclear weapons influence Western thinking on intervention. Putin's nuclear threats increase nuclear risks. But Russia's nuclear signalling so far appears to not have changed Western policy. Short thread on nuclear coercion & Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/harries_matthew/status/1498270245626298372

2/ Two explicit nuclear threats in first 4 days of war: In Feb. 24 declaration of war speech Putin warned those "who may be tempted to interfere in developments from outside" that "consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history." is.gd/hDIKCm

1/ @NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg describes content of letter to Russia with "proposals, ideas, topics" where allies agree "it is possible to make progress" including on "risk reduction, transparency, and #armscontrol". Short attempt to unpack: is.gd/Nmj0if 2/ NATO usefully suggests "mutual briefings on exercises and nuclear policies in the NATO-Russia Council". Lots of experience to build on, see for example 2014 @SWPBerlin papers by @KatarzynaKubiak (tinyurl.com/y8zdn8gg) and Max Mutschler here tinyurl.com/yce7yrw9 (.pdf)

1/ Crunch time on @NATO nuclear sharing discussions in talks on new German government. Short thread on debate, picking up couple of contentious points in this interesting but one-sided @derspiegel analysis: tinyurl.com/yeabnsxk 2/ Terms of debate have recently shifted because @usairforce has announced end of production of F18

https://twitter.com/MIL_STD/status/1456456439761940482?s=20

1/ German debate on @NATO nuclear sharing is picking up speed: Rolf Mützenich, chairman of coalition partner Social Democrats @spdbt in Parliament in @Tagesspiegel interview tomorrow apparntly calls for future end of #nuclearweapons deployments in Germany is.gd/EFCfLb 2/ Mützenich argues that other @NATO allies participate in nuclear sharing even though they have renounced option to host US nuclear weapons. (To be precise: 21 of 30 NATO allies participate in Nuclear Planning Group even though their territory is free of #nuclearweapons.)

Thread: This E3 statement is indicative of concerns Europeans have about triggering #DisputeResolutionMechanism. Several smart people including @EllieGeranmayeh @diplocharlie @AliVaez have commented on politics, risks & opportunities. A few comments here on DRM procedure.

https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1217041518277595136

2/The statement has been complemented by a statement of @JosepBorrellF confirming receipt of E3 letter and confirming his role as Joint Commission Chairman. This is interesting because EU/@eu_eeas at the same time can be independent #JCPOA participant.

https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1217050995521413120?s=20