A short thread about the “new phase” of Russia’s war against Ukraine. 🧵👇🏻 Russian plans of taking Kyiv & installing a puppet gov that would dissolve Ukraine’s military, acknowledge Crimea as Russian & Donbas as independent - failed miserably.

Russia was able to take ONE regional capital, Kherson, with UKR army now on the offensive in several regions.

A short thread about what’s happening in Ukraine’s south & southeast. 🧵 Russia had its biggest success in the south, where it attacked from occupied Crimea.

Ukrainian defense was overstretched, while terrain and logistics was favourable for Russia.

⚡️Zelensky: “We will rebuild, every house, every street, every city.”

“We say to Russia, learn the words reparation and contribution, you’ll repay us everything.” ⚡️Zelensky: “You came to destroy our cities, our people, to take everything that we cherish, you cut civilians from electricity, water, food, you bomb evacuation routes. There’s no weapons left that you haven’t used.”

Short thread 🧵 on Russia’s ongoing escalation & what comes next. 👇🏻

We now know that Putin, Macron & Scholz are forcing Zelensky to comply with the Russian spin of Minsk - direct talks with Kremlin-led proxies & vast autonomy for Russian-occupied regions.kyivindependent.com/national/sourc… For Macron, becoming chief mediator is key for his standing on the global stage, while Scholz wants the whole situation to return to the October status quo with gas & trade.

The problem: Now Putin knows what he wants & knows how to get it.

⚡️BREAKING. From Feb. 14, Ukraine is turning into a de facto no-fly zone.

International airlines are canceling flights, airplane leasing companies are banning entry into Ukrainian airspace, insurance companies won’t provide services.

International panic has a snowball effect. SkyUp - google.ca/amp/s/www.prav…

Ukrainska Pravda - kyivindependent.com/national/ukrai…

KLM - google.ca/amp/s/www.epra…

SkyUp & UIA are planning to move airplanes from Ukraine, possibly Moldova.

Today at 4 pm Gov. will meet, that’s one of the questions on the list.

I really hope I’m wrong.

Unpopular THREAD. Peaceful protests are for democracies. In authoritarian countries like #Russia & #Belarus peaceful protests don’t work.

You need a specific location and you need to be ready to use force. The main accomplishment of regimes in #Russia & #Belarus is that they were successful in demonizing Maidan. Even those who hate #Putin & #Lukashenko are scared of being associated with Maidan and rush to reassure their abusers that they will protest peacefully.