For the past several weeks we've been hearing two rival narratives on #Yemen: from watchers abroad, that the fighting has stalemated. From contacts on the ground, that a large-scale escalation is imminent. It’s now clear that escalation it is.. Some thoughts.

#THREAD The stalemate narrative: Put simply, for many not watching Yemen day-to-day, the war appears to have reached a moment of inertia because the Huthis have not entered Marib City, and international media attention has waned. But in fact, in our tracking we've seen several trends...

Saudi Arabia has announced what it’s calling ‘an initiative to end the Yemeni crisis’ that is attracting a lot of attention.

Some quick thoughts (THREAD). 1. This isn’t a new initiative, it’s a new spin on a year old one. The announcement more than anything signals clear Saudi support for a version of a initiative that has been under discussion for more than a year, 1st under UN, more recently with US playing an assertive role.

We @CrisisGroup have been clear in explaining why we oppose the designation of the Huthis as a terrorist organization.

Doing so risks collectively punishing all #Yemenis by precipitating a famine while doing little to hurt the Huthis other than pushing them closer to Iran... ...We first wrote about the likely consequences of a designation in October

crisisgroup.org/united-states/…

Now up: @Rob_Malley and I on the case against an FTO designation for the Huthis. We argue it would deepen the humanitarian crisis, potentially sparking famine, and likely prolong the war.

https://twitter.com/Rob_Malley/status/1332359719562964992

I’ve had several long conversations in recent days with Yemeni friends who disagree: as we write, there is a strong feeling on the other side of this conversation that a designation would provide leverage with the Huthis that would force them into negotiations w/ a weakened hand.

So what’s going on with the ceasefire in #Yemen? Well, there isn’t one - yet.

The good news: You can't break a ceasefire that doesn't exist.

The bad news: No ceasefire.

#Thread (1/10) The UN special envoy to Yemen and Secretary General have both called for a ceasefire. And yesterday Saudi Arabia announced a unilateral halt to its military activities in Yemen for two weeks, which it called a ceasefire. But...

(2/10)

As a onetime freelancer who worked from home *a lot* I have limited transferable skills. But I do have some knowledge of what most of us are going to be dealing with in the next few weeks/months. Here are 5 short thoughts on how to stay sane during coronatine. 1. Try to keep regular work hours. The temptation will be there to start later in the day or take the afternoon off and catch up in the evening. But then work time and rest time merge into one another and you end up being in constant almost-work mode. This is A Very Bad Idea.

So, the Riyadh Agreement (RIP, Jeddah Agreement) between STC and Hadi gov still hasn't been signed but a ceremony is reportedly imminent and a draft of what is the near-final text has now been distributed widely. Some quick thoughts (#Thread). Draft is made up of a series of cascading/staggered national / local political and security arrangements aimed at integrating STC/southern secessionist political and affiliated forces into national defence/security structures. In return, STC participates in UN-led consultations.