🚨Updated IRA Modeling🚨

1⃣ Today we (@EnergyInnovLLC) released updated modeling of the IRA. We updated our modeling to reflect final bill text, add new modeling projections and data, incorporate new modeling updates. Results below. Text here: energyinnovation.org/wp-content/upl… 2⃣ Our updated modeling finds emissions U.S. GHG emissions could decrease to 37-43% below 2005 levels by 2030 with the IRA, with our central case at 39%.

🧵1⃣ This morning we (@EnergyInnovLLC) released our assessment of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) on emissions, jobs, health impacts.

In short: this is a BIG deal.

Topline: the provisions in the bill could reduce US emissions to 37-41% below 2005 levels in 2030 2⃣ On the new oil and gas supply pieces: We conclude that these are likely to cause <50 MMT of increases, offset by 800-1,100 MMT of reductions. For every 1 ton from oil and gas supply, there's at least 24 tons of reductions from other pieces. Our assumptions are conservative.

🚨🚨New reconciliation emissions modeling🚨🚨🧵

1/13 Today we (@EnergyInnovLLC) released our research on GHG reductions the reconciliation process could deliver. The upshot: At least 1-1.5 Gt by 2030 could be cut from passing the bill as-is. Available at: energyinnovation.org/publication/mo… 2/13 This would represent, by far, the most meaningful climate legislation in US history. If combined with state action and regulatory policy, it could set the US up to achieve is 2030 NDC of 50-52% below 2005 emissions.

1/7 To all businesses, individuals, groups, and elected officials who claim to care about climate change and want to make a difference: The time is now. We've waited more than a decade for the current opportunity to enact federal climate policy. 2/7 We have a once in a lifetime opportunity to enact meaningful, profound climate policy and to put the US on track to do its part limiting emissions to 1.5 degrees. Is it perfect? No, of course not. Perfect policy is not passable in the US Congress. But...

1/10 @POTUS's #AmericanJobsPlan has some amazing ideas and funding for addressing #climatechange. I'm somewhat awestruck by the careful thought, detail, and ambition. If passed, it would catalyze the economy and deploy a lot of the needed infrastructure to decarbonize. Thoughts: 2/10 The plan makes a concerted effort to address transportation GHGs, by:
->Investing $85bn to address the backlog of public transit repairs
->Deploying 500k EV chargers by 2030
->Electrifying buses, incl. 20% of school buses
->Electrifying federal vehicle fleet, including USPS

1/ Okay #climatetwitter and #energytwitter. Today I've been compiling a list of the top models I used for energy analysis. I figured I would make this publicly available as a resource for other folks, and to hear about what I'm missing. 2/ First a shameless plug for our (@EnergyInnovLLC) free model, the Energy Policy Simulator. The EPS covers 8 regions (US, China, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Canada, Poland, and KSA) and forecasts how policies affect energy, emissions, and cash flows. energypolicy.solutions

1/9 There’s a lot of talk lately about oil majors committing to a carbon price. Remember, the transportation sector is mostly immune to a carbon price. 2/9 Each $1 in carbon price equates to about a 1 cent per gallon increase. So even a modest $50/ton tax results in $0.50 increase in gas prices. That is well within the normal level of variation with crude oil prices.

1/16 An often discussed recent trend in electricity markets is the increased amount of negatively priced hours. Often, this increase is blamed on renewables. In fact, it is often caused by the inflexibility of bigger baseload units, like coal and nuclear plants.. 2/16 Let's use an example to look at what's going on. It's the middle of a hot summer day, so operators are running all their resources. The price is equal to the last *marginal* unit. Marginal means a unit that can respond to price by increasing or decreasing output.