For the first time since the 1960s, there are 3 competitive political blocs largely along the old regional divides.

Hence the latest survey, which was commissioned by @EiENigeria and conducted by @sbmintelligence, did not provide us with a clear front-runner. The first 2023 election survey conducted by SBM was published in July 2022 and showed that only 41% of registered voters had collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs).

This assumption of low turnout fed into our December 2022 projections, based on a 7,000-respondent survey.

1/ An incendiary presidential remark, the country making an EU blacklist, a political gesture posturing as a fuel price cut, and the politicisation of a mass killing fed into a week where political uncertainty reigned supreme. 2/ While there have been attempts by @OfficialAPCNg supporters to justify and defend @MBuhari’s statement, the reaction of the party’s National Leader, @AsiwajuTinubu, where he attempted to declare it a misunderstanding and an impossibility,

Estimating the impact of today's #NigeriaDecides2019 postponement on GDP is quite subjective. Some of the clear effects include: *Disruption of business activities
*Disruption of social activities
*Increased wage cost
*Inconvenience to daily life
*Reduced consumer spending

1/ A carelessly incurred fine, effectively ignoring a surging ISWAP, the CCB’s sudden impotence, and a judicial bailout for an under fire ruling party, Nigeria has become the land where the unnecessary is king. 2/ The drama between @MobilePunch and @CCBNigeria represents the latest indication of the current administration’s selective commitment to the rule of law.

Last Friday, @MBuhari suspended the Chief Justice of On Friday, 25 January, 2019, President Muhammadu Buhari suspended the Chief Justice of @SupremeCourtNg, Justice Walter #Onnoghen, pending the completion of his trial at @CCBNigeria's tribunal. @MBuhari immediately swore in Justice Ibrahim Tanko Mohammed as the acting CJN.

In a swift reaction, @NigBarAssoc issued a statement unequivocally rejecting and condemning “this attempted coup against the Nigerian Judiciary” and fixed an emergency meeting for today.

1/ The country’s profile got bleaker this week for a host of reasons - impetuous regulatory behaviour, refugees left out in the cold, a needless rise in public recurrent spending and an unshackled rogue police squad. 2/ Nothing illustrates #Nigeria’s dysfunction as much as the minimum wage palaver. The ₦27,000 ($75) or even ₦30,000 ($83) is not much – those that earn it will hover around the poverty line.

1/ #Nigeria's judiciary is under the spotlight yet again, for decidedly unsavoury reasons. 2/ Barring any drastic change of plans, the CJN, Honourable Justice Walter #Onnoghen will be arraigned by @CCBNigeria this morning on 6 counts of alleged false asset declarations.

2018 began with some trepidation as #Nigeria's economy failed to take off, and familiar sounds of discontent began to surface.

In the political space, questions mounted about whether the coalition that brought @MBuhari to power 3 years earlier would hold firm.

It didn't. Meanwhile, the year, 2018, would go down as the year when @AsoRock's claims about having a lid on security issues were revealed to be mostly empty.

The brooding festive mood did little to stifle the fact that electoral reform was stumped, our worst fears about the north-east are real, a forex ban list got longer and regulatory immaturity persists. Honourable Mohammed's remarks about #BokoHaram underscore the gulf between official propaganda regarding the north-east and the realities on the ground.

In a week where the North East got yet another military commander, we got a better look at overburdened infrastructure.

Elsewhere, as MTN gears up to enter the banks’ turf, concern over Nigeria's food import practices conjures a picture of a recently painted but creaking house. The @MTNGroup's announcement is a positive for #Nigeria's economy as it substantiates previous comments by MTN that it has no plans to exit Nigeria despite its spat with @cenbank over alleged illegal fund repatriation.

In a week where Nigeria’s government outmanoeuvred trade unions but inevitably booted the ball up the pitch, questions still arose about its budget.

Meanwhile, security dominates the discussions next door, amid concerns that Nigeria may be inadvertently breeding a militia. On the minimum wage palaver, the key point to note is that @AsoRock has been unable to fund salary payments at the ₦18,000/month level from its revenues, and most states need to be bailed out periodically at that amount.

It must be noted that this crisis is not the first this year to engulf Kasuwan Magani, #Kaduna.

At least 12 persons were killed and 1,000 houses destroyed in a religious crisis that erupted on 26 February over the conversion of a Christian girl to Islam by her Muslim boyfriend. 65 persons were subsequently arrested and charged to court by @contactkdsg.

The history of #Kaduna is filled with crises cutting across religious, economic and tribal lines, and various governments, both military and civilian have been unable to prevent the lawlessness.

Nigeria’s parliament made amendments to electoral law that fail to separate the meat from the bones, a scenario which also applies to our crumbling infrastructure.

Meanwhile, conspiracy theorists are poised to have a field day following a dissident’s curious resurrection. The statement of intent by @NGRSenate in the proposed #ElectoralAct amendment is clear - #Nigeria must build on the incremental improvements from #elections2015, a key representation of which is the card reader.

There was cheery news that regulators had seen the error of their ways regarding indiscriminate use of iron fist tactics.

This step forward was blunted by events such as leap backwards in Osun, a problematic strike action, and a return to bad old habits by a bus company. On 25 September, @cenbank governor, Godwin Emefiele, said that he was optimistic the regulator would resolve the dispute in a way that will ensure that “everybody will be happy.”

We think this is a belated attempt at reassuring waning investor sentiment towards the country.

On the evening of 7/9/18, fighters loyal to ISWAP raised their flag over #Gudumbali, HQ of Guzamala LGA, #Borno.

Soldiers and policemen in town abandoned their positions, and in some instances discarded their uniforms as they sought to escape the advancing terrorists. What was striking was the speed with which @HQNigerianArmy lost control of Gudumbali, a strategic town that lies on the road between Damasak and Monguno.

This attack was less than a week after 145 Battalion was attacked in Zari, 51km away, leading to the loss of 48 soldiers.

Aso Rock picked on the bankers of the opposition in a busy week that also saw it acting coy on personal civil liberties and rolling the carpet for two of the EU’s most powerful leaders. All these occurred while cocoa simply could not find its way to the country’s main ports. @officialEFCC’s interest in @ZenithBank’s transactions involving @riversstategov signals a willingness on the part of @MBuhari's administration to focus on the latter given its pre-eminence in the political architecture of the opposition @OfficialPDPNig.

President Obasanjo once called maintaining Nigeria Airways (NAL) irresponsible. Six years later, one of his successors, despite a petition from former NAL employees appealing for ₦45 billion in severance pay, is shopping the world for an investor for a proposed national carrier. Between a ferocious fight over revenue sharing, and ignoring the obvious on Boko Haram, bad ideas seem to die slowly, such that it has almost obscured the recognition Nigeria’s music industry got from the world’s largest music label.

Plateau’s bloody week holds important long-term consequences for the rest of the country, as does our global poverty profile, the President taking a swipe at restructuring advocates, and the finance ministry’s chest thumping while not saying much. The #Plateau incident underscores the simmering nature of multiple low and medium intensity conflicts occurring across #Nigeria, a historically certain prelude to a total breakdown of law and order.

Yesterday, a rare joint session of both houses of @nassnigeria met and issued resolutions that has set it on a collision course with @AsoRock, and holds important political and economic consequences for #Nigeria as it stares down the barrel of #election2019. The tension between the 2 most important arms of the FG, both controlled by @OfficialAPCNg, has endured through the tenure of @MBuhari's administration and is consequential for the party, for the wider political state of the country and in driving economic policy.

The needle shifted a little further into the red zone with concerns over an expanded security vote chest, an import rate hike bound to affect fuel prices, talk of water colonies, and the CBN’s continued fixation on forex. The glue that holds up the inefficient political system in #Nigeria, and skews it against both the will of the people and a level playing field for better candidates to emerge, is the existence of slush funds that warp campaign funding.

The Egmont Group, an international body of 155 Financial Intelligence Units that provides a platform for the secure exchange of expertise and financial intelligence, meets from today, March 12, 2018, until Thursday, March 15. A deadline to Nigeria to separate its National Financial Intelligence Unit from the EFCC lapsed yesterday, without Nigeria enacting a law that would have done so. The likely outcome of the Egmont Group’s meeting will be Nigeria’s expulsion from the group.