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Kai
Cloud veteran | Founding Engineer of Microsoft Azure | Engineer . Entrepreneur . Investor | Not Financial Advice
Feb 18, 2022 14 tweets 3 min read
With the recent bloodbath, more ppl are saying “valuations do matter”. What if you do the homework, don’t want to overpay, realize that just looking at EV/S won’t cut it, but really don’t want to bring out that DCF spreadsheet?

Well, let me help. 🧵 In this short thread I will introduce an “intrinsic-valuation inspired” shortcut, that doesn’t require a spreadsheet and anyone can do on the back of an envelope.

Let’s call it the “Intrinsic Terminal FCF Multiple”.
Apr 8, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
1/
 
It is quite profitable to sell put #options for income. It is fairly passive, and if done correctly, there is actually very low risk. Here is how I do it.

#NotInvestmentAdvice

$TSLA $MSFT $SE $CRWD $BABA $FB 2/
 
Rule #1: Only do this for the companies I want to own, at a price I am willing to pay, and without blowing up the position size if assigned.

So I continuously do this on highest conviction #stocks, eg: $TSLA, $MSFT, $SE, $CRWD

Or the stocks at great value: $BABA, $FB
Apr 7, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read
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What should the “intrinsic P/E ratio” be for an “average US company” in today’s market?

Is it possible to find this out?
 
Yes, it is roughly 16.92.

Let’s do some math.

#stocks #investing #ValueInvesting 2/
 
First, let’s define what is an “average US company”?

We assume this is a US company that is mature.
 
Its cash flows grow at a steady rate.
 
It has market average risk: beta = 1.
 
And it earns no excess returns: Return on Equity (ROE) = Cost of Equity.